AAON Stock Analysis: AAON | NASDAQ
Building Products & Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 8.651m USD | 12M Return: 32.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 110M
EPS Trend: -84.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 92.1%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment for commercial and industrial customers in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three reportable segments-AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX-and offers a broad product portfolio that includes rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, air handling units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. Its customer base spans retail, manufacturing, education, lodging, supermarkets, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical facilities, and other commercial end markets. Products are distributed through independent manufacturer representative organizations, an internal sales force, and online channels. AAON was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
AAON is classified within the Industrials sector under the Building Products sub-industry, reflecting its role as a manufacturer of equipment used in commercial building systems rather than a pure-play HVAC service provider. The inclusion of dedicated data center cooling and cleanroom offerings aligns the business with growing demand from hyperscale computing, semiconductor, and life sciences construction segments.
- Data center cooling demand surges with AI infrastructure buildout
- Steel and copper input costs pressure product margins
- BASX cleanroom and data center segment expands rapidly
| Net Income: 118.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.12% < 20% (prev 28.96%; Δ 7.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 43.7m > Net Income 118.1m |
| Net Debt (469.0m) to EBITDA (249.6m): 1.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.2m) vs 12m ago -0.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.24% > 18% (prev 31.04%; Δ -4.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 104.7% > 50% (prev 96.95%; Δ 7.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.42 > 6 (EBIT TTM 168.3m / Interest Expense TTM 20.0m) |
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 943.7m - Total Current Liabilities 359.6m) / Total Assets 1.79b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 862.0m / Total Assets 1.79b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 168.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.54b) |
| D: 1.09 (Book Value of Equity 934.2m / Total Liabilities 855.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.59 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 608.2m/361.1m, Revenue 1.62b/1.26b) |
| GMI: 1.18 (GM 31.04% / 26.24%) |
| AQI: 0.78 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.28 (Revenue 1.62b / 1.26b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 118.1m - CFO 43.7m) / TA 1.79b) |
| Beneish M = -2.52 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 102.67 with a total of 896,803 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.85%, over one month by -21.98%, over three months by +3.16% and over the past year by +32.94%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 91.30 (which is 11.1% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
AAON has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AAON.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 151.3 | 47.4% |
P/E Trailing = 72.8345
P/E Forward = 50.0
P/S = 5.35
P/B = 9.1082
P/EG = 3.1214
Revenue TTM = 1.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 168.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 249.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 425.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 469.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 18.2m
Net Debt = 469.0m USD (calculated: Debt 469.0m - CCE 13.0k)
Enterprise Value = 9.12b USD (8.65b + Debt 469.0m - CCE 13.0k)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.42 (Ebit TTM 168.3m / Interest Expense TTM 20.0m)
EV/FCF = -62.80x (Enterprise Value 9.12b / FCF TTM -145.2m)
FCF Yield = -1.59% (FCF TTM -145.2m / Enterprise Value 9.12b)
FCF Margin = -8.98% (FCF TTM -145.2m / Revenue TTM 1.62b)
Net Margin = 7.30% (Net Income TTM 118.1m / Revenue TTM 1.62b)
Gross Margin = 26.24% ((Revenue TTM 1.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.15% (prev 25.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.10 (Enterprise Value 9.12b / Total Assets 1.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.26% (Interest Expense 20.0m / Debt 469.0m)
Taxrate = 20.38% (30.2m / 148.3m)
NOPAT = 134.0m (EBIT 168.3m * (1 - 20.38%))
Current Ratio = 2.62 (Total Current Assets 943.7m / Total Current Liabilities 359.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.50 (Debt 469.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 934.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.88 (Net Debt 469.0m / EBITDA 249.6m)
Debt / FCF = -3.23 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 469.0m / FCF TTM -145.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 881.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.65% (Net Income 118.1m / Total Assets 1.79b)
RoE = 13.40% (Net Income TTM 118.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 881.3m)
RoCE = 12.88% (EBIT 168.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 881.3m + L.T.Debt 425.2m))
RoIC = 9.30% (NOPAT 134.0m / Invested Capital 1.44b)
WACC = 12.79% (E(8.65b)/V(9.12b) * Re(13.30%) + D(469.0m)/V(9.12b) * Rd(4.26%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 13.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -69.60 | Cagr: -0.14%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -145.2m)
EPS Correlation: -84.26 | EPS CAGR: -19.07% | SUE: 1.57 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 92.10 | Revenue CAGR: 12.55% | SUE: 3.54 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.26 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+67.4% | GrowthRev=+43.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.42 | Chg30d=+3.74% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+51.1% | GrowthRev=+16.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +61% (up=13, down=2)