Overview Dividends

(AAON) AAON - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US0003602069

Rooftop Units, Chillers, Air Handlers, Coils, Heat Pumps, Controls

AAON EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -21.10%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -79.0%

AAON Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 16.14%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 77.5%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	58.6%
Value at Risk 5%th	85.9%

Reward
Sharpe Ratio	-0.30
Alpha Jensen	-42.10

Character
Hurst Exponent	0.294
Beta	1.051

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	48.86%
Mean DD	15.05%

Description: AAON AAON November 06, 2025

AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) designs, manufactures, markets, and sells a broad portfolio of HVAC and thermal-energy solutions-including rooftop units, data-center cooling, clean-room systems, chillers, heat pumps, and control components-to commercial customers across the United States and Canada. The business is organized into three operating segments-AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX-and reaches end-users through independent manufacturer representatives, an internal sales force, and an online channel.

According to the company’s most recent Form 10-K (FY 2023), AAON generated roughly **$1.2 billion** in revenue with an **operating margin of ~13 %**, and it reported a **backlog of about $500 million**, indicating strong demand continuity. The HVAC sector is being propelled by two macro drivers: (1) a **steady 4 %-5 % CAGR growth in commercial construction and retro-fit spending**, and (2) **accelerating data-center expansion**, which raises demand for high-efficiency, modular cooling solutions-areas where AAON’s product mix has a competitive edge. Conversely, the company’s performance is sensitive to **interest-rate-driven construction cycles** and **raw-material cost volatility** (e.g., steel and copper), which can compress margins if not managed.

If you’re looking to deepen your quantitative analysis of AAON’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at the metrics and scenario models on ValueRay can help you spot any pricing gaps before the next earnings release.

AAON Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	8,615m
Sub-Industry	Building Products
IPO / Inception	1992-12-16
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-35.8%
Analyst Rating	3.83 of 5

AAON Dividends

Dividend Yield	0.37%
Yield on Cost 5y	0.87%
Yield CAGR 5y	6.05%
Payout Consistency	97.0%
Payout Ratio	30.2%

AAON Growth Ratios

CAGR	24.89%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.51
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	1.65
Current Volume	860k
Average Volume	947.9k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0

Net Income (100.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 78.9m TTM)

FCFTA -0.15 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -25.89pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 38.70% (prev 23.81%; Δ 14.89pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA -0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO -17.9m <= Net Income 100.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (359.1m) to EBITDA (208.4m) ratio: 1.72 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 3.04 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (83.0m) change vs 12m ago -0.19% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 26.88% (prev 35.65%; Δ -8.78pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 102.6% (prev 117.4%; Δ -14.77pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 10.01 (EBITDA TTM 208.4m / Interest Expense TTM 13.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 5.84

(A) 0.33 = (Total Current Assets 759.3m - Total Current Liabilities 250.2m) / Total Assets 1.53b

(B) 0.53 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 806.4m / Total Assets 1.53b

(D) 1.20 = Book Value of Equity 806.8m / Total Liabilities 671.0m

Total Rating: 5.84 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 47.38

1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0

2. FCF Yield -2.58% = -1.29

3. FCF Margin -17.63% = -6.61

4. Debt/Equity 0.42 = 2.41

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.72 = 0.54

6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.37)% = 0.46

7. RoE 12.02% = 1.00

8. Rev. Trend 77.48% = 5.81

9. EPS Trend -78.99% = -3.95

What is the price of AAON shares?

As of November 13, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 102.04 with a total of 860,007 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.18%, over one month by +0.08%, over three months by +23.17% and over the past year by -25.61%.

Is AAON a good stock to buy?

No, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) is currently (November 2025) a stock to sell. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 47.38 and therefor a negative outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AAON is around 104.05 USD . This means that AAON is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 1.97%.

Is AAON a buy, sell or hold?

AAON has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AAON.

Strong Buy: 2
Buy: 1
Hold: 3
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AAON price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	115.3	12.9%
Analysts Target Price	115.3	12.9%
ValueRay Target Price	117.1	14.8%

AAON Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025

Market Cap USD = 8.61b (8.61b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 87.2149
P/E Forward = 51.0204
P/S = 6.5483
P/B = 9.629
P/EG = 3.3972
Beta = 1.051
Revenue TTM = 1.32b USD
EBIT TTM = 131.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 208.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 138.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 18.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 360.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 359.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.97b USD (8.61b + Debt 360.1m - CCE 1.04m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.01 (Ebit TTM 131.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.2m)
FCF Yield = -2.58% (FCF TTM -231.9m / Enterprise Value 8.97b)
FCF Margin = -17.63% (FCF TTM -231.9m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Net Margin = 7.62% (Net Income TTM 100.3m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Gross Margin = 26.88% ((Revenue TTM 1.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 962.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.81% (prev 26.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.85 (Enterprise Value 8.97b / Total Assets 1.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.43% (Interest Expense 5.15m / Debt 360.1m)
Taxrate = 19.93% (7.66m / 38.4m)
NOPAT = 105.6m (EBIT 131.9m * (1 - 19.93%))
Current Ratio = 3.04 (Total Current Assets 759.3m / Total Current Liabilities 250.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 360.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 863.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.72 (Net Debt 359.1m / EBITDA 208.4m)
Debt / FCF = -1.55 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 359.1m / FCF TTM -231.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 834.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.53% (Net Income 100.3m / Total Assets 1.53b)
RoE = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 100.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 834.1m)
RoCE = 13.56% (EBIT 131.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 834.1m + L.T.Debt 138.9m))
RoIC = 9.91% (NOPAT 105.6m / Invested Capital 1.07b)
WACC = 9.54% (E(8.61b)/V(8.97b) * Re(9.89%) + D(360.1m)/V(8.97b) * Rd(1.43%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 9.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.30%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -231.9m)
EPS Correlation: -78.99 | EPS CAGR: -21.10% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.48 | Revenue CAGR: 16.14% | SUE: 1.95 | # QB: 1

Additional Sources for AAON Stock

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