AAON Stock Analysis: AAON | NASDAQ
Building Products & Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 6.329m USD | 12M Return: -14.3% | US0003602069 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 83.3M
EPS Trend: -75.8%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 87.3%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment for commercial and industrial customers in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three reportable segments-AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX-and offers a broad product portfolio that includes rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, air handling units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. Its customer base spans retail, manufacturing, education, lodging, supermarkets, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical facilities, and other commercial end markets. Products are distributed through independent manufacturer representative organizations, an internal sales force, and online channels. AAON was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
AAON is classified within the Industrials sector under the Building Products sub-industry, reflecting its role as a manufacturer of equipment used in commercial building systems rather than a pure-play HVAC service provider. The inclusion of dedicated data center cooling and cleanroom offerings aligns the business with growing demand from hyperscale computing, semiconductor, and life sciences construction segments.
- Data center cooling demand surges with AI infrastructure buildout
- Steel and copper input costs pressure product margins
- BASX cleanroom and data center segment expands rapidly
| Net Income: 159.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 34.40% < 20% (prev 35.23%; Δ -0.83% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 86.5m > Net Income 159.3m |
| Net Debt (480.9m) to EBITDA (319.9m): 1.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.7m) vs 12m ago 0.92% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.57% > 18% (prev 28.67%; Δ -3.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 118.4% > 50% (prev 89.94%; Δ 28.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.64 > 6 (EBIT TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.2m) |
| A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 995.0m - Total Current Liabilities 330.3m) / Total Assets 1.86b |
| B: 0.49 (Retained Earnings 910.4m / Total Assets 1.86b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 213.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.63b) |
| D: 1.18 (Book Value of Equity 1.01b / Total Liabilities 853.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.06 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.60 (Receivables 380.0m/411.1m, Revenue 1.93b/1.26b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 28.67% / 25.57%) |
| AQI: 0.76 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.54 (Revenue 1.93b / 1.26b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 159.3m - CFO 86.5m) / TA 1.86b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 79.27 with a total of 1,010,598 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.66%, over one month by +4.30%, over three months by -41.71% and over the past year by -14.34%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 73.20 (which is 7.7% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
AAON has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AAON.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 134.8 | 70% |
P/E Trailing = 40.1885
P/E Forward = 20.202
P/S = 3.2753
P/B = 6.237
P/EG = 0.8791
Revenue TTM = 1.93b USD
EBIT TTM = 213.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 319.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 435.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 480.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 17.1m
Net Debt = 480.9m USD (calculated: Debt 480.9m - CCE 13.0k)
Enterprise Value = 6.81b USD (6.33b + Debt 480.9m - CCE 13.0k)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.64 (Ebit TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.2m)
EV/FCF = -57.33x (Enterprise Value 6.81b / FCF TTM -118.8m)
FCF Yield = -1.74% (FCF TTM -118.8m / Enterprise Value 6.81b)
FCF Margin = -6.15% (FCF TTM -118.8m / Revenue TTM 1.93b)
Net Margin = 8.24% (Net Income TTM 159.3m / Revenue TTM 1.93b)
Gross Margin = 25.57% ((Revenue TTM 1.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.32% (prev 25.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.65 (Enterprise Value 6.81b / Total Assets 1.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.61% (Interest Expense 22.2m / Debt 480.9m)
Taxrate = 16.90% (32.4m / 191.7m)
NOPAT = 177.6m (EBIT 213.8m * (1 - 16.90%))
Current Ratio = 3.01 (Total Current Assets 995.0m / Total Current Liabilities 330.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 480.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.50 (Net Debt 480.9m / EBITDA 319.9m)
Debt / FCF = -4.05 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 480.9m / FCF TTM -118.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 925.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.76% (Net Income 159.3m / Total Assets 1.86b)
RoE = 17.21% (Net Income TTM 159.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 925.7m)
RoCE = 15.71% (EBIT 213.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 925.7m + L.T.Debt 435.0m))
RoIC = 11.53% (NOPAT 177.6m / Invested Capital 1.54b)
WACC = 13.75% (E(6.33b)/V(6.81b) * Re(14.50%) + D(480.9m)/V(6.81b) * Rd(4.61%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 14.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -45.27 | Cagr: -0.17%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -118.8m)
EPS Correlation: -75.83 | EPS CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 87.34 | Revenue CAGR: 16.80% | SUE: 2.79 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=+0.59% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.36 | Chg30d=-0.48% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+74.6% | GrowthRev=+59.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.50 | Chg30d=-0.84% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+48.4% | GrowthRev=+17.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +7% (up=6, down=5)