AAON Stock Analysis: AAON | NASDAQ

Building Products & Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 6.766m USD | 12M Return: -4.5% | US0003602069 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Rooftop Units, Air Handling, Heat Pumps, Energy Recovery
Total Rating 36
Safety 86
Buy Signal -0.21
Building Products & Equipment
Industry Rotation: -0.6
Market Cap: 6.77B
Avg Turnover: 108M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility65.7%
VaR 5th Pctl10.4%
VaR vs Median-3.08%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.20
Rel. Str. IBD2.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group1.6
Character TTM
Beta2.483
Beta Downside2.867
Hurst Exponent0.449
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD48.86%
CAGR/Max DD0.20
CAGR/Mean DD0.48
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AAON over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.25, "2021-09": 0.19, "2021-12": 0.18, "2022-03": 0.22, "2022-06": 0.2, "2022-09": 0.34, "2022-12": 0.71, "2023-03": 0.45, "2023-06": 0.55, "2023-09": 0.64, "2023-12": 0.56, "2024-03": 0.46, "2024-06": 0.62, "2024-09": 0.63, "2024-12": 0.3, "2025-03": 0.37, "2025-06": 0.22, "2025-09": 0.37, "2025-12": 0.39, "2026-03": 0.48, "2026-06": 0.69,
EPS CAGR: -17.23%
EPS Trend: -75.8%
Last SUE: 1.22
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of AAON over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 143.876, 2021-09: 138.571, 2021-12: 136.282, 2022-03: 182.771, 2022-06: 208.814, 2022-09: 242.605, 2022-12: 254.598, 2023-03: 265.953, 2023-06: 283.957, 2023-09: 311.97, 2023-12: 306.638, 2024-03: 262.099, 2024-06: 313.566, 2024-09: 327.252, 2024-12: 297.718, 2025-03: 322.054, 2025-06: 311.567, 2025-09: 384.238, 2025-12: 424.217, 2026-03: 496.936, 2026-06: 626.976,
Rev. CAGR: 16.80%
Rev. Trend: 87.3%
Last SUE: 2.79
Qual. Beats: 4

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -0.4% 7
Feb +1.5% 18
Mar +1.8% 5
Apr -2.0% 6
May -0.5% 16
Jun +1.1% 8
Jul -1.0% 5
Aug -3.8% 15
Sep -2.6% 15
Oct -0.1% 0
Nov +8.2% 49
Dec -1.7% 37

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AAON AAON

AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment for commercial and industrial customers in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three reportable segments-AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX-and offers a broad product portfolio that includes rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, air handling units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. Its customer base spans retail, manufacturing, education, lodging, supermarkets, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical facilities, and other commercial end markets. Products are distributed through independent manufacturer representative organizations, an internal sales force, and online channels. AAON was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

AAON is classified within the Industrials sector under the Building Products sub-industry, reflecting its role as a manufacturer of equipment used in commercial building systems rather than a pure-play HVAC service provider. The inclusion of dedicated data center cooling and cleanroom offerings aligns the business with growing demand from hyperscale computing, semiconductor, and life sciences construction segments.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Data center cooling demand surges with AI infrastructure buildout
  • Steel and copper input costs pressure product margins
  • BASX cleanroom and data center segment expands rapidly
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 159.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.69 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 34.40% < 20% (prev 35.23%; Δ -0.83% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 86.5m > Net Income 159.3m
Net Debt (482.0m) to EBITDA (319.9m): 1.51 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.01 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.7m) vs 12m ago 0.92% < -2%
Gross Margin: 25.57% > 18% (prev 28.67%; Δ -3.10% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 118.4% > 50% (prev 89.94%; Δ 28.50% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.64 > 6 (EBIT TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.2m)
Altman Z'' 6.06
A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 995.0m - Total Current Liabilities 330.3m) / Total Assets 1.86b
B: 0.49 (Retained Earnings 910.4m / Total Assets 1.86b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 213.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.63b)
D: 1.18 (Book Value of Equity 1.01b / Total Liabilities 853.3m)
Altman-Z'' = 6.06 = AAA
Beneish M -3.00
DSRI: 0.60 (Receivables 380.0m/411.1m, Revenue 1.93b/1.26b)
GMI: 1.12 (GM 28.67% / 25.57%)
AQI: 0.76 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.12)
SGI: 1.54 (Revenue 1.93b / 1.26b)
TATA: 0.04 (NI 159.3m - CFO 86.5m) / TA 1.86b)
Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of AAON shares?

As of August 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 79.44 with a total of 983,284 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.52%, over one month by -26.23%, over three months by -43.67% and over the past year by -4.54%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 71.40 (which is 10.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is AAON a buy, sell or hold?

AAON has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AAON.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AAON price?
Analysts Target Price 143 80%
AAON (AAON) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 20 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 6.77b (6.77b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 46.3616
P/E Forward = 44.4444
P/S = 3.5015
P/B = 7.1909
P/EG = 1.935
Revenue TTM = 1.93b USD
EBIT TTM = 213.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 319.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 398.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 7.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 482.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 18.2m
Net Debt = 482.0m USD (calculated: Debt 482.0m - CCE 13.0k)
Enterprise Value = 7.25b USD (6.77b + Debt 482.0m - CCE 13.0k)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.64 (Ebit TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.2m)
EV/FCF = -61.02x (Enterprise Value 7.25b / FCF TTM -118.8m)
FCF Yield = -1.64% (FCF TTM -118.8m / Enterprise Value 7.25b)
FCF Margin = -6.15% (FCF TTM -118.8m / Revenue TTM 1.93b)
Net Margin = 8.24% (Net Income TTM 159.3m / Revenue TTM 1.93b)
Gross Margin = 25.57% ((Revenue TTM 1.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.32% (prev 25.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.89 (Enterprise Value 7.25b / Total Assets 1.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.60% (Interest Expense 22.2m / Debt 482.0m)
Taxrate = 16.90% (32.4m / 191.7m)
NOPAT = 177.6m (EBIT 213.8m * (1 - 16.90%))
Current Ratio = 3.01 (Total Current Assets 995.0m / Total Current Liabilities 330.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 482.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.51 (Net Debt 482.0m / EBITDA 319.9m)
 Debt / FCF = -4.06 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 482.0m / FCF TTM -118.8m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 925.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.76% (Net Income 159.3m / Total Assets 1.86b)
RoE = 17.21% (Net Income TTM 159.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 925.7m)
RoCE = 16.15% (EBIT 213.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 925.7m + L.T.Debt 398.3m))
RoIC = 11.53% (NOPAT 177.6m / Invested Capital 1.54b)
WACC = 14.00% (E(6.77b)/V(7.25b) * Re(14.72%) + D(482.0m)/V(7.25b) * Rd(4.60%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 14.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -45.27 | Cagr: -0.17%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -118.8m)
 EPS Correlation: -75.83 | EPS CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 87.34 | Revenue CAGR: 16.80% | SUE: 2.79 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-15.15% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=+4.78% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+75.4% | GrowthRev=+59.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.53 | Chg30d=+3.31% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+49.0% | GrowthRev=+16.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +80% (up=12, down=0)