(MRCY) Mercury Systems - Overview
Stock: Embedded, Avionics, Radar, Subsystems, Components
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 49.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.40 |
| Alpha | 66.83 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.804 |
| Beta Downside | 0.398 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 52.10% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.31 |
Description: MRCY Mercury Systems January 12, 2026
Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRCY) designs, manufactures, and integrates high-performance electronic components, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, OEMs, government agencies, and commercial aerospace customers. Its product portfolio spans RF power amplifiers, microwave integrated circuits, digital-analog converters, embedded processing boards, and specialized radar-simulation and electronic-warfare systems for UAVs and other platforms.
Operating across the United States, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific, Mercury leverages a vertically integrated model that combines in-house silicon design with assembly and test, enabling tighter control of bill-of-materials costs and faster time-to-market for classified programs.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue of $1.48 billion, a 9 % YoY increase, operating margin of 12 %, and a backlog of roughly $2.2 billion-indicating strong demand pipeline. R&D intensity remains high at ~13 % of revenue, reflecting the firm’s focus on next-gen RF and AI-enabled signal-processing capabilities.
Sector drivers that materially affect MRCY include the U.S. defense budget outlook (projected FY 2025 discretionary defense spending to rise ~3 % YoY) and the accelerating adoption of autonomous UAVs, which fuels demand for compact, high-throughput signal-processing and electronic-warfare payloads.
For a deeper quantitative view of MRCY’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-driven dashboard.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -66.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 85.05% < 20% (prev 81.44%; Δ 3.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 118.7m > Net Income -66.0m |
| Net Debt (307.5m) to EBITDA (9.75m): 31.54 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (59.4m) vs 12m ago 1.46% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.99% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2672 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.92% > 50% (prev 36.67%; Δ -0.74% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.36 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 9.75m / Interest Expense TTM 16.2m) |
Altman Z'' 2.22
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 1.13b - Total Current Liabilities 383.0m) / Total Assets 2.50b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 154.3m / Total Assets 2.50b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -38.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.45b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 158.0m / Total Liabilities 1.04b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.22 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.15
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 379.8m/383.1m, Revenue 880.8m/880.5m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 26.99% / 26.99%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.49 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 880.8m / 880.5m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -66.0m - CFO 118.7m) / TA 2.50b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MRCY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.07%, over one month by -8.68%, over three months by +14.36% and over the past year by +81.68%.
Is MRCY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MRCY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 98.8 | 15.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 98.8 | 15.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 102.4 | 19.9% |
MRCY Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026
P/S = 5.2339
P/B = 3.2515
P/EG = 2.651
Revenue TTM = 880.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -38.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 9.75m USD
Long Term Debt = 591.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 32.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 642.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 307.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.24b USD (4.93b + Debt 642.5m - CCE 335.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.36 (Ebit TTM -38.2m / Interest Expense TTM 16.2m)
EV/FCF = 54.46x (Enterprise Value 5.24b / FCF TTM 96.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.84% (FCF TTM 96.2m / Enterprise Value 5.24b)
FCF Margin = 10.92% (FCF TTM 96.2m / Revenue TTM 880.8m)
Net Margin = -7.49% (Net Income TTM -66.0m / Revenue TTM 880.8m)
Gross Margin = 26.99% ((Revenue TTM 880.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 643.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.04% (prev 27.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.09 (Enterprise Value 5.24b / Total Assets 2.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -1.22% (Interest Expense -7.85m / Debt 642.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -30.2m (EBIT -38.2m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.96 (Total Current Assets 1.13b / Total Current Liabilities 383.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 642.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.46b)
Debt / EBITDA = 31.54 (Net Debt 307.5m / EBITDA 9.75m)
Debt / FCF = 3.20 (Net Debt 307.5m / FCF TTM 96.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.69% (Net Income -66.0m / Total Assets 2.50b)
RoE = -4.51% (Net Income TTM -66.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.46b)
RoCE = -1.86% (EBIT -38.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.46b + L.T.Debt 591.5m))
RoIC = -1.46% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -30.2m / Invested Capital 2.06b)
WACC = 7.75% (E(4.93b)/V(5.58b) * Re(8.88%) + D(642.5m)/V(5.58b) * Rd(-1.22%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.49%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.33% ; FCFF base≈96.4m ; Y1≈91.8m ; Y5≈88.2m
Fair Price DCF = 22.33 (EV 1.65b - Net Debt 307.5m = Equity 1.34b / Shares 60.0m; r=7.75% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -6.19% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -28.57 | EPS CAGR: -28.74% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -44.91 | Revenue CAGR: -2.19% | SUE: 0.86 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=-0.153 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=-0.050 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+51.1% | Growth Revenue=+4.5%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=+0.022 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+57.6% | Growth Revenue=+9.6%