(UGP) Ultrapar Participacoes - Overview
Stock: Lpg, Fuel, Lubricants, Terminals, Digital
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 8.74% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.41% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 25.90% |
| Payout Consistency | 82.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 25.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.13% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.89 |
| Alpha | 86.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.597 |
| Beta Downside | 0.502 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 58.58% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.56 |
Description: UGP Ultrapar Participacoes January 10, 2026
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (NYSE: UGP) is a Brazilian conglomerate that operates across energy, mobility, and infrastructure. Through subsidiaries it distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to residential, commercial and industrial customers, markets gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural-gas-for-vehicles and lubricants, runs the Am Pm convenience-store chain, provides Jet Oil lubricant services, and manages liquid-bulk storage terminals. The group also offers a digital-payments platform (the “abastece aí” app) linked to the “Km de Vantagens” loyalty program, and exports its products to North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show ≈ R$ 30 billion in total revenue, with the LPG segment contributing about 30 % and delivering an EBITDA margin of ≈ 15 %. The company’s storage business benefits from Brazil’s growing demand for secure fuel logistics, while the convenience-store network has seen same-store sales growth of ~ 4 % YoY, driven by higher consumer spending on automotive-related items. Macro-level drivers include Brazil’s projected 2-3 % annual increase in total fuel consumption (driven by vehicle fleet expansion) and the country’s ongoing shift toward ethanol blends, which supports Ultrapar’s diversified fuel portfolio.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of UGP’s valuation dynamics, you may find the research tools on ValueRay useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 2.97b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.28% < 20% (prev 4.47%; Δ 0.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 3.48b > Net Income 2.97b |
| Net Debt (15.96b) to EBITDA (7.43b): 2.15 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.11b) vs 12m ago -1.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 6.39% > 18% (prev 0.07%; Δ 631.5% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 329.4% > 50% (prev 334.5%; Δ -5.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.76 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 7.43b / Interest Expense TTM 2.16b) |
Altman Z'' 2.81
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 16.30b - Total Current Liabilities 8.91b) / Total Assets 45.56b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 1.80b / Total Assets 45.56b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 5.97b / Avg Total Assets 42.44b) |
| D: 0.64 (Book Value of Equity 17.16b / Total Liabilities 26.90b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.81 = A |
Beneish M -2.41
| DSRI: 1.63 (Receivables 7.16b/4.13b, Revenue 139.82b/131.52b) |
| GMI: 1.13 (GM 6.39% / 7.24%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 139.82b / 131.52b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 2.97b - CFO 3.48b) / TA 45.56b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.41 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of UGP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.61%, over one month by +30.96%, over three months by +26.64% and over the past year by +95.35%.
Is UGP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the UGP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 4.9 | -5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 4.9 | -5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.1 | 37.8% |
UGP Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Trailing = 9.9804
P/E Forward = 11.6959
P/S = 0.0389
P/B = 1.7397
P/EG = 2.13
Revenue TTM = 139.82b BRL
EBIT TTM = 5.97b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 7.43b BRL
Long Term Debt = 14.14b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.98b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.49b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.96b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 45.15b BRL (28.38b + Debt 18.49b - CCE 1.72b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.76 (Ebit TTM 5.97b / Interest Expense TTM 2.16b)
EV/FCF = 24.50x (Enterprise Value 45.15b / FCF TTM 1.84b)
FCF Yield = 4.08% (FCF TTM 1.84b / Enterprise Value 45.15b)
FCF Margin = 1.32% (FCF TTM 1.84b / Revenue TTM 139.82b)
Net Margin = 2.13% (Net Income TTM 2.97b / Revenue TTM 139.82b)
Gross Margin = 6.39% ((Revenue TTM 139.82b - Cost of Revenue TTM 130.89b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.69% (prev 6.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 45.15b / Total Assets 45.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.19% (Interest Expense 774.5m / Debt 18.49b)
Taxrate = 24.95% (257.4m / 1.03b)
NOPAT = 4.48b (EBIT 5.97b * (1 - 24.95%))
Current Ratio = 1.83 (Total Current Assets 16.30b / Total Current Liabilities 8.91b)
Debt / Equity = 1.13 (Debt 18.49b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.15 (Net Debt 15.96b / EBITDA 7.43b)
Debt / FCF = 8.66 (Net Debt 15.96b / FCF TTM 1.84b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.00% (Net Income 2.97b / Total Assets 45.56b)
RoE = 18.93% (Net Income TTM 2.97b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.70b)
RoCE = 19.99% (EBIT 5.97b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.70b + L.T.Debt 14.14b))
RoIC = 14.37% (NOPAT 4.48b / Invested Capital 31.16b)
WACC = 6.16% (E(28.38b)/V(46.87b) * Re(8.12%) + D(18.49b)/V(46.87b) * Rd(4.19%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.09%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.52% ; FCFF base≈1.35b ; Y1≈1.67b ; Y5≈2.84b
Fair Price DCF = 56.22 (EV 76.05b - Net Debt 15.96b = Equity 60.09b / Shares 1.07b; r=6.16% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 27.06 | EPS CAGR: -47.24% | SUE: -0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 42.39 | Revenue CAGR: 64.63% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-8.6% | Growth Revenue=+0.1%