(DLTR) Dollar Tree - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US2567461080
Consumables, Variety, Seasonal, Housewares, Crafts
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 70.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.45% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.50 |
| Alpha | 67.70 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.05 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.595 |
| Beta | 0.632 |
| Beta Downside | 0.908 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 61.91% |
| Mean DD | 30.28% |
| Median DD | 30.36% |
Description: DLTR Dollar Tree October 16, 2025
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) operates a network of discount retail stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada banners across the United States and Canada. Its merchandise mix is split into three categories: consumables (e.g., household paper, food, personal-care items), variety goods (e.g., toys, housewares, stationery), and seasonal products (e.g., holiday décor). Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, the firm positions itself as a one-price-point retailer, primarily offering items at $1.25 or less in the U.S. market.
Key recent metrics: FY2023 revenue reached approximately $8.6 billion, with comparable-store sales (same-store sales growth) expanding 5.2% year-over-year, driven by resilient low-income consumer spending amid elevated inflation. The company’s operating margin held steady around 7.5%, reflecting efficient cost control despite rising freight and labor expenses. A sector-wide driver is the macro-economic trend of “price-sensitive” shoppers shifting toward discount formats when discretionary income is constrained, which has historically bolstered Dollar Tree’s traffic and sales.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of Dollar Tree’s valuation dynamics and scenario modeling, you may find ValueRay’s research platform worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (-2.95b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.14b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 8.36pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.84% (prev 0.79%; Δ -1.63pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.37b > Net Income -2.95b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (4.63b) to EBITDA (1.73b) ratio: 2.67 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.96 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (203.8m) change vs 12m ago -5.30% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 35.94% (prev 31.79%; Δ 4.15pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 102.5% (prev 119.0%; Δ -16.43pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 11.15 (EBITDA TTM 1.73b / Interest Expense TTM 94.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.50
| (A) -0.01 = (Total Current Assets 3.73b - Total Current Liabilities 3.89b) / Total Assets 13.66b |
| (B) 0.26 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.52b / Total Assets 13.66b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 1.05b / Avg Total Assets 18.49b |
| (D) 0.34 = Book Value of Equity 3.46b / Total Liabilities 10.19b |
| Total Rating: 1.50 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 53.60
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.55% |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.66% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.51 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.67 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.62)% |
| 7. RoE -78.98% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -60.97% |
| 9. EPS Trend -44.98% |
What is the price of DLTR shares?
As of December 14, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 129.87 with a total of 2,505,815 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.07%, over one month by +22.31%, over three months by +33.27% and over the past year by +83.35%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.07%, over one month by +22.31%, over three months by +33.27% and over the past year by +83.35%.
Is DLTR a buy, sell or hold?
Dollar Tree has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.63.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold DLTR.
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 16
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the DLTR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 113 | -13% |
| Analysts Target Price | 113 | -13% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 159.2 | 22.6% |
DLTR Fundamental Data Overview December 07, 2025
Market Cap USD = 24.97b (24.97b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.1894
P/E Forward = 17.4825
P/S = 1.3171
P/B = 6.4809
P/EG = 1.1156
Beta = 0.752
Revenue TTM = 18.96b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.05b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.73b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.43b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.60b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.23b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.63b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 29.61b USD (24.97b + Debt 5.23b - CCE 594.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.15 (Ebit TTM 1.05b / Interest Expense TTM 94.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.55% (FCF TTM 1.64b / Enterprise Value 29.61b)
FCF Margin = 8.66% (FCF TTM 1.64b / Revenue TTM 18.96b)
Net Margin = -15.57% (Net Income TTM -2.95b / Revenue TTM 18.96b)
Gross Margin = 35.94% ((Revenue TTM 18.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.89% (prev 34.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.17 (Enterprise Value 29.61b / Total Assets 13.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 21.9m / Debt 5.23b)
Taxrate = 23.87% (76.7m / 321.3m)
NOPAT = 798.5m (EBIT 1.05b * (1 - 23.87%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 3.73b / Total Current Liabilities 3.89b)
Debt / Equity = 1.51 (Debt 5.23b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.46b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.67 (Net Debt 4.63b / EBITDA 1.73b)
Debt / FCF = 2.82 (Net Debt 4.63b / FCF TTM 1.64b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -21.62% (Net Income -2.95b / Total Assets 13.66b)
RoE = -78.98% (Net Income TTM -2.95b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.74b)
RoCE = 17.00% (EBIT 1.05b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.74b + L.T.Debt 2.43b))
RoIC = 11.58% (NOPAT 798.5m / Invested Capital 6.90b)
WACC = 6.95% (E(24.97b)/V(30.20b) * Re(8.34%) + D(5.23b)/V(30.20b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.58%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.49% ; FCFE base≈1.33b ; Y1≈1.64b ; Y5≈2.79b
Fair Price DCF = 225.6 (DCF Value 44.87b / Shares Outstanding 198.9m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -44.98 | EPS CAGR: -12.66% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -60.97 | Revenue CAGR: -10.09% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=16
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=6.60 | Chg30d=+0.208 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+15.9% | Growth Revenue=+6.4%
P/E Trailing = 23.1894
P/E Forward = 17.4825
P/S = 1.3171
P/B = 6.4809
P/EG = 1.1156
Beta = 0.752
Revenue TTM = 18.96b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.05b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.73b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.43b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.60b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.23b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.63b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 29.61b USD (24.97b + Debt 5.23b - CCE 594.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.15 (Ebit TTM 1.05b / Interest Expense TTM 94.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.55% (FCF TTM 1.64b / Enterprise Value 29.61b)
FCF Margin = 8.66% (FCF TTM 1.64b / Revenue TTM 18.96b)
Net Margin = -15.57% (Net Income TTM -2.95b / Revenue TTM 18.96b)
Gross Margin = 35.94% ((Revenue TTM 18.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.89% (prev 34.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.17 (Enterprise Value 29.61b / Total Assets 13.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 21.9m / Debt 5.23b)
Taxrate = 23.87% (76.7m / 321.3m)
NOPAT = 798.5m (EBIT 1.05b * (1 - 23.87%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 3.73b / Total Current Liabilities 3.89b)
Debt / Equity = 1.51 (Debt 5.23b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.46b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.67 (Net Debt 4.63b / EBITDA 1.73b)
Debt / FCF = 2.82 (Net Debt 4.63b / FCF TTM 1.64b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -21.62% (Net Income -2.95b / Total Assets 13.66b)
RoE = -78.98% (Net Income TTM -2.95b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.74b)
RoCE = 17.00% (EBIT 1.05b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.74b + L.T.Debt 2.43b))
RoIC = 11.58% (NOPAT 798.5m / Invested Capital 6.90b)
WACC = 6.95% (E(24.97b)/V(30.20b) * Re(8.34%) + D(5.23b)/V(30.20b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.58%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.49% ; FCFE base≈1.33b ; Y1≈1.64b ; Y5≈2.79b
Fair Price DCF = 225.6 (DCF Value 44.87b / Shares Outstanding 198.9m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -44.98 | EPS CAGR: -12.66% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -60.97 | Revenue CAGR: -10.09% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=16
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=6.60 | Chg30d=+0.208 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+15.9% | Growth Revenue=+6.4%
Additional Sources for DLTR Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle