DLTR Stock Analysis: Dollar Tree | NASDAQ
Discount Stores | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 23.829m USD | 12M Return: 13.7% | US2567461080 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 279M
EPS Trend: 40.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -94.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is a large-cap US consumer staples retailer operating discount stores across the United States and Canada under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada banners. Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, the company has been publicly traded since 1995 and sits within the Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail sub-industry, competing alongside other value-focused chains.
Its assortment spans consumables (household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health and personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated items); variety merchandise such as toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and arts and crafts supplies; and seasonal goods for holidays including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentines Day. The discount retail model
- Family Dollar segment turnaround remains key to margin recovery
- Multi-price point strategy lifts ticket size and traffic
- Tariff exposure on Chinese imports pressures merchandise costs
| Net Income: 1.61b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.86 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.20% < 20% (prev 0.58%; Δ 1.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 2.99b > Net Income 1.61b |
| Net Debt (11.3b) to EBITDA (2.88b): 3.91 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.9m) vs 12m ago -8.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.74% > 18% (prev 34.22%; Δ 4.51% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 146.4% > 50% (prev 162.7%; Δ -16.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 29.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.19b / Interest Expense TTM 74.1m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 3.74b - Total Current Liabilities 3.30b) / Total Assets 14.0b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 3.48b / Total Assets 14.0b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 2.19b / Avg Total Assets 13.7b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 3.43b / Total Liabilities 10.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.43 = A |
As of September 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 126.59 with a total of 3,500,470 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.43%, over one month by -0.49%, over three months by +13.69% and over the past year by +13.69%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 114.20 (which is 9.8% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Dollar Tree has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.63. Therefore, it is recommended to hold DLTR.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 16
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 131.7 | 4% |
P/E Trailing = 20.3852
P/E Forward = 19.5313
P/S = 1.2067
P/B = 7.2431
P/EG = 1.627
Revenue TTM = 20.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.19b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.88b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.43b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.01b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.66b
Net Debt = 11.3b USD (calculated: Debt 12.3b - CCE 1.06b)
Enterprise Value = 35.1b USD (23.8b + Debt 12.3b - CCE 1.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 29.53 (Ebit TTM 2.19b / Interest Expense TTM 74.1m)
EV/FCF = 18.94x (Enterprise Value 35.1b / FCF TTM 1.85b)
FCF Yield = 5.28% (FCF TTM 1.85b / Enterprise Value 35.1b)
FCF Margin = 9.24% (FCF TTM 1.85b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Net Margin = 8.03% (Net Income TTM 1.61b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Gross Margin = 38.74% ((Revenue TTM 20.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.91% (prev 36.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.50 (Enterprise Value 35.1b / Total Assets 14.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.60% (Interest Expense 74.1m / Debt 12.3b)
Taxrate = 24.62% (528.5m / 2.15b)
NOPAT = 1.65b (EBIT 2.19b * (1 - 24.62%))
Current Ratio = 1.13 (Total Current Assets 3.74b / Total Current Liabilities 3.30b)
Debt / Equity = 3.60 (Debt 12.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.91 (Net Debt 11.3b / EBITDA 2.88b)
Debt / FCF = 6.08 (Net Debt 11.3b / FCF TTM 1.85b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.76% (Net Income 1.61b / Total Assets 14.0b)
RoE = 45.58% (Net Income TTM 1.61b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.54b)
RoCE = 36.65% (EBIT 2.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.54b + L.T.Debt 2.43b))
RoIC = 15.37% (NOPAT 1.65b / Invested Capital 10.7b)
WACC = 5.18% (E(23.8b)/V(36.2b) * Re(7.63%) + D(12.3b)/V(36.2b) * Rd(0.60%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.82 | Cagr: -5.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.31% ; FCFF base≈1.97b ; Y1≈1.75b ; Y5≈1.45b
[DCF] Fair Price = 63.30 (EV 23.2b - Net Debt 11.3b = Equity 11.9b / Shares 187.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -13.83% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 40.06 | EPS CAGR: 3.78% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -94.59 | Revenue CAGR: -16.91% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=1.39 | Chg30d=+1.44% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=25
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=7.04 | Chg30d=+1.05% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+22.4% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=7.75 | Chg30d=+0.95% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+10.1% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +72% (up=14, down=1)