DLTR Stock Analysis: Dollar Tree | NASDAQ
Discount Stores | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 23.512m USD | 12M Return: 35.5% | US2567461080 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 224M
EPS Trend: 40.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -94.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is a U.S.-based large-cap discount retailer that operates stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada banners across the United States and Canada. The company sells a broad assortment of everyday consumables (household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health and personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated items), general variety merchandise (toys, housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, and arts and crafts supplies), and seasonal goods tied to holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentines Day.
Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, Dollar Tree has been publicly traded since its 1995 IPO and is classified within the Consumer Staples sector under the Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail sub-industry. Like other extreme-value retailers, the business is built on a high-volume, low-margin model in which most items are sold at a single low price point, driving traffic through predictable affordability rather than premium pricing or brand differentiation.
- Family Dollar strategic alternatives review weighs on valuation
- Multi-price point strategy drives comparable store sales growth
- Margin recovery from easing freight and wage cost inflation
| Net Income: 1.61b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.86 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.20% < 20% (prev 0.58%; Δ 1.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 2.99b > Net Income 1.61b |
| Net Debt (11.3b) to EBITDA (3.04b): 3.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.9m) vs 12m ago -8.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.74% > 18% (prev 34.22%; Δ 4.51% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 146.4% > 50% (prev 162.7%; Δ -16.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 29.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.19b / Interest Expense TTM 74.1m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 3.74b - Total Current Liabilities 3.30b) / Total Assets 14.0b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 3.48b / Total Assets 14.0b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 2.19b / Avg Total Assets 13.7b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 3.43b / Total Liabilities 10.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.43 = A |
As of October 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 133.87 with a total of 2,225,503 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.83%, over one month by +18.16%, over three months by +4.12% and over the past year by +35.50%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 128.60 (which is 3.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Dollar Tree has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.48. Therefore, it is recommended to hold DLTR.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 135.4 | 1.1% |
P/E Trailing = 15.2631
P/E Forward = 17.6991
P/S = 1.1716
P/B = 6.4731
P/EG = 1.4742
Revenue TTM = 20.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.19b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.04b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.93b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.01b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.74b
Net Debt = 11.3b USD (calculated: Debt 12.4b - CCE 1.06b)
Enterprise Value = 34.9b USD (23.5b + Debt 12.4b - CCE 1.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 29.53 (Ebit TTM 2.19b / Interest Expense TTM 74.1m)
EV/FCF = 18.81x (Enterprise Value 34.9b / FCF TTM 1.85b)
FCF Yield = 5.32% (FCF TTM 1.85b / Enterprise Value 34.9b)
FCF Margin = 9.24% (FCF TTM 1.85b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Net Margin = 8.03% (Net Income TTM 1.61b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Gross Margin = 38.74% ((Revenue TTM 20.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.91% (prev 36.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.48 (Enterprise Value 34.9b / Total Assets 14.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.60% (Interest Expense 74.1m / Debt 12.4b)
Taxrate = 24.62% (528.5m / 2.15b)
NOPAT = 1.65b (EBIT 2.19b * (1 - 24.62%))
Current Ratio = 1.13 (Total Current Assets 3.74b / Total Current Liabilities 3.30b)
Debt / Equity = 3.62 (Debt 12.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.73 (Net Debt 11.3b / EBITDA 3.04b)
Debt / FCF = 6.12 (Net Debt 11.3b / FCF TTM 1.85b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.76% (Net Income 1.61b / Total Assets 14.0b)
RoE = 45.58% (Net Income TTM 1.61b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.54b)
RoCE = 33.81% (EBIT 2.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.54b + L.T.Debt 2.93b))
RoIC = 15.37% (NOPAT 1.65b / Invested Capital 10.7b)
WACC = 4.86% (E(23.5b)/V(35.9b) * Re(7.19%) + D(12.4b)/V(35.9b) * Rd(0.60%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.82 | Cagr: -5.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.31% ; FCFF base≈1.97b ; Y1≈1.75b ; Y5≈1.45b
[DCF] Fair Price = 62.82 (EV 23.1b - Net Debt 11.3b = Equity 11.8b / Shares 187.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -13.85% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 40.06 | EPS CAGR: 3.78% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -94.59 | Revenue CAGR: -16.91% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=-0.14% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=24
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=7.93 | Chg30d=+0.50% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+37.9% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=7.91 | Chg30d=+0.03% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=-0.2% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +18% (up=5, down=3)