(ASML) ASML Holding - Ratings and Ratios
Lithography, Metrology, Inspection, Software, Services
ASML EPS (Earnings per Share)
ASML Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 54.1% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.02 |
| Alpha Jensen | 13.06 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.446 |
| Beta | 1.355 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.77% |
| Mean DD | 16.80% |
Description: ASML ASML Holding October 08, 2025
ASML Holding N.V. designs, manufactures, and services advanced lithography equipment that enables semiconductor manufacturers to print the intricate patterns of integrated circuits. Its portfolio spans extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) systems-critical for sub-5 nm nodes-as well as deep-ultraviolet (DUV) immersion and dry tools, complemented by metrology, inspection (YieldStar, HMI electron-beam), computational lithography, and lifecycle services such as upgrades and refurbishments. The company’s global footprint covers key chip-making regions, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, the Netherlands, and the United States.
In FY 2023 ASML generated €21.2 billion of revenue, posting a gross margin of roughly 49 % and an order backlog exceeding €30 billion-both indicative of a tight supply-demand balance in the high-end chip market. EUV machines now capture more than 90 % of the market for 3 nm and smaller nodes, and the firm’s R&D spend remains near 20 % of revenue, underscoring its commitment to maintaining technological lead. The primary economic drivers are the capital-expenditure cycles of the three largest foundries (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) and the accelerating demand for AI-focused chips, while export-control restrictions on China constitute a material geopolitical risk.
Given ASML’s entrenched position as the sole supplier of EUV lithography and its expanding service revenue stream, the company is a pivotal bellwether for the semiconductor equipment sector; however, any slowdown in advanced-node fab spending or escalation of trade barriers could materially impact its outlook. For a deeper dive into ASML’s valuation sensitivities and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a structured framework worth exploring.
ASML Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 411,344m |
| Sub-Industry | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment |
| IPO / Inception | 1995-03-15 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 23.7% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
ASML Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.95% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 25.07% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.1% |
ASML Growth Ratios
| CAGR | 17.28% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.39 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 1.03 |
| Current Volume | 416.4k |
| Average Volume | 538k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (9.42b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.93b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.21 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 13.41pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 25.17% (prev 32.70%; Δ -7.54pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 (>3.0%) and CFO 11.18b > Net Income 9.42b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-3.54b) to EBITDA (12.25b) ratio: -0.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.43 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (388.4m) change vs 12m ago -1.30% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 52.52% (prev 51.44%; Δ 1.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 75.16% (prev 62.45%; Δ 12.71pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 14.1k (EBITDA TTM 12.25b / Interest Expense TTM 800.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.58
| (A) 0.18 = (Total Current Assets 26.71b - Total Current Liabilities 18.62b) / Total Assets 44.85b |
| (B) 0.32 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 14.41b / Total Assets 44.85b |
| (C) 0.26 = EBIT TTM 11.28b / Avg Total Assets 42.80b |
| (D) 0.55 = Book Value of Equity 14.90b / Total Liabilities 27.23b |
| Total Rating: 4.58 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 88.56
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt = 3.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.62% = 1.31 |
| 3. FCF Margin 28.71% = 7.18 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.21 = 2.48 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.29 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 94.67)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 54.00% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 59.16% = 4.44 |
| 9. EPS Trend 43.15% = 2.16 |
What is the price of ASML shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.39%, over one month by +5.27%, over three months by +41.70% and over the past year by +42.76%.
Is ASML Holding a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ASML is around 872.05 EUR . This means that ASML is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -1.67%.
Is ASML a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASML price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 954.2 | 7.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 993.3 | 12% |
ASML Fundamental Data Overview January 01, 1970
Market Cap EUR = 356.36b (356.36b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 35.9686
P/E Forward = 34.0136
P/S = 11.0629
P/B = 19.3895
P/EG = 1.9254
Beta = 1.355
Revenue TTM = 32.16b EUR
EBIT TTM = 11.28b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 12.25b EUR
Long Term Debt = 3.70b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.01b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.70b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -3.54b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 352.81b EUR (356.36b + Debt 3.70b - CCE 7.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.1k (Ebit TTM 11.28b / Interest Expense TTM 800.0k)
FCF Yield = 2.62% (FCF TTM 9.23b / Enterprise Value 352.81b)
FCF Margin = 28.71% (FCF TTM 9.23b / Revenue TTM 32.16b)
Net Margin = 29.27% (Net Income TTM 9.42b / Revenue TTM 32.16b)
Gross Margin = 52.52% ((Revenue TTM 32.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 15.27b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.69% (prev 53.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.87 (Enterprise Value 352.81b / Total Assets 44.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.02% (Interest Expense 800.0k / Debt 3.70b)
Taxrate = 17.55% (487.4m / 2.78b)
NOPAT = 9.30b (EBIT 11.28b * (1 - 17.55%))
Current Ratio = 1.43 (Total Current Assets 26.71b / Total Current Liabilities 18.62b)
Debt / Equity = 0.21 (Debt 3.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.62b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.29 (Net Debt -3.54b / EBITDA 12.25b)
Debt / FCF = -0.38 (Net Debt -3.54b / FCF TTM 9.23b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.99% (Net Income 9.42b / Total Assets 44.85b)
RoE = 54.00% (Net Income TTM 9.42b / Total Stockholder Equity 17.44b)
RoCE = 53.36% (EBIT 11.28b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.44b + L.T.Debt 3.70b))
RoIC = 105.6% (NOPAT 9.30b / Invested Capital 8.81b)
WACC = 10.90% (E(356.36b)/V(360.06b) * Re(11.01%) + D(3.70b)/V(360.06b) * Rd(0.02%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 11.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 61.49% ; FCFE base≈6.71b ; Y1≈4.96b ; Y5≈2.87b
Fair Price DCF = 91.81 (DCF Value 35.64b / Shares Outstanding 388.1m; 5y FCF grow -30.84% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 43.15 | EPS CAGR: 6.64% | SUE: 0.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 59.16 | Revenue CAGR: 10.96% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0