(ASML) ASML Holding - Ratings and Ratios
Lithography, Metrology, Inspection, Software, Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 35.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 53.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.95% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.92 |
| Alpha | 30.62 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.494 |
| Beta | 0.427 |
| Beta Downside | 0.583 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.77% |
| Mean DD | 16.87% |
| Median DD | 12.15% |
Description: ASML ASML Holding October 08, 2025
ASML Holding N.V. designs, manufactures, and services advanced lithography equipment that enables semiconductor manufacturers to print the intricate patterns of integrated circuits. Its portfolio spans extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) systems-critical for sub-5 nm nodes-as well as deep-ultraviolet (DUV) immersion and dry tools, complemented by metrology, inspection (YieldStar, HMI electron-beam), computational lithography, and lifecycle services such as upgrades and refurbishments. The company’s global footprint covers key chip-making regions, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, the Netherlands, and the United States.
In FY 2023 ASML generated €21.2 billion of revenue, posting a gross margin of roughly 49 % and an order backlog exceeding €30 billion-both indicative of a tight supply-demand balance in the high-end chip market. EUV machines now capture more than 90 % of the market for 3 nm and smaller nodes, and the firm’s R&D spend remains near 20 % of revenue, underscoring its commitment to maintaining technological lead. The primary economic drivers are the capital-expenditure cycles of the three largest foundries (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) and the accelerating demand for AI-focused chips, while export-control restrictions on China constitute a material geopolitical risk.
Given ASML’s entrenched position as the sole supplier of EUV lithography and its expanding service revenue stream, the company is a pivotal bellwether for the semiconductor equipment sector; however, any slowdown in advanced-node fab spending or escalation of trade barriers could materially impact its outlook. For a deeper dive into ASML’s valuation sensitivities and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a structured framework worth exploring.
ASML Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 397,170m |
| Sub-Industry | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment |
| IPO / Inception | 1995-03-15 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 22.2% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
ASML Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.76% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 25.07% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.1% |
ASML Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 14.62% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.33 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 0.87 |
| Current Volume | 593.9k |
| Average Volume | 538k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income (9.46b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.93b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.20 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 13.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 18.38% (prev 33.69%; Δ -15.30pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.24 (>3.0%) and CFO 10.79b > Net Income 9.46b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-8.05b) to EBITDA (9.57b) ratio: -0.84 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.31 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (388.1m) change vs 12m ago -1.39% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 52.71% (prev 51.15%; Δ 1.56pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 74.17% (prev 62.82%; Δ 11.35pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 57.50 (EBITDA TTM 9.57b / Interest Expense TTM 153.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.87
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 25.15b - Total Current Liabilities 19.22b) / Total Assets 45.10b |
| (B) 0.32 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 14.41b / Total Assets 45.10b |
| (C) 0.20 = EBIT TTM 8.84b / Avg Total Assets 43.43b |
| (D) 0.57 = Book Value of Equity 14.90b / Total Liabilities 26.10b |
| Total Rating: 3.87 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 88.21
| 1. Piotroski 9.0pt = 4.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.62% = 1.31 |
| 3. FCF Margin 27.76% = 6.94 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.25 = 2.47 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.84 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 79.90)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 52.15% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 51.08% = 3.83 |
| 9. EPS Trend 43.15% = 2.16 |
What is the price of ASML shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.40%, over one month by -3.55%, over three months by +35.76% and over the past year by +38.82%.
Is ASML a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASML price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 949.8 | 9.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 957.1 | 10.6% |
ASML Fundamental Data Overview November 18, 2025
Market Cap EUR = 342.15b (342.15b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 36.1049
P/E Forward = 33.7838
P/S = 10.6219
P/B = 17.8629
P/EG = 1.9802
Beta = 1.355
Revenue TTM = 32.21b EUR
EBIT TTM = 8.84b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 9.57b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.70b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.01b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 4.69b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -8.05b EUR (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 341.71b EUR (342.15b + Debt 4.69b - CCE 5.13b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 57.50 (Ebit TTM 8.84b / Interest Expense TTM 153.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.62% (FCF TTM 8.94b / Enterprise Value 341.71b)
FCF Margin = 27.76% (FCF TTM 8.94b / Revenue TTM 32.21b)
Net Margin = 29.38% (Net Income TTM 9.46b / Revenue TTM 32.21b)
Gross Margin = 52.71% ((Revenue TTM 32.21b - Cost of Revenue TTM 15.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.63% (prev 53.69%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.58 (Enterprise Value 341.71b / Total Assets 45.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.28% (Interest Expense 153.7m / Debt 4.69b)
Taxrate = 17.77% (442.2m / 2.49b)
NOPAT = 7.27b (EBIT 8.84b * (1 - 17.77%))
Current Ratio = 1.31 (Total Current Assets 25.15b / Total Current Liabilities 19.22b)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 4.69b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.99b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.84 (Net Debt -8.05b / EBITDA 9.57b)
Debt / FCF = -0.90 (Net Debt -8.05b / FCF TTM 8.94b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.15b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.98% (Net Income 9.46b / Total Assets 45.10b)
RoE = 52.15% (Net Income TTM 9.46b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.15b)
RoCE = 42.38% (EBIT 8.84b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.15b + L.T.Debt 2.70b))
RoIC = 87.42% (NOPAT 7.27b / Invested Capital 8.31b)
WACC = 7.52% (E(342.15b)/V(346.84b) * Re(7.59%) + D(4.69b)/V(346.84b) * Rd(3.28%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 7.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.02% ; FCFE base≈6.50b ; Y1≈4.80b ; Y5≈2.78b
Fair Price DCF = 136.0 (DCF Value 52.80b / Shares Outstanding 388.1m; 5y FCF grow -30.84% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 43.15 | EPS CAGR: 6.64% | SUE: 0.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 51.08 | Revenue CAGR: 5.84% | SUE: -1.29 | # QB: 0