(AVTX) Avantium Holding BV - Overview
Stock: Bio-Based Plastics, FDCA, PEF, Releaf
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.45 |
| Alpha | -49.80 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.159 |
| Beta Downside | 1.036 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 80.95% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.45 |
Description: AVTX Avantium Holding BV January 19, 2026
Avantium Holding BV (AS:AVTX) is a Dutch chemical-technology company that develops and commercialises bio-based plastics and chemicals. It operates through three segments – Avantium R&D Solutions, Avantium Renewable Chemistries and Avantium Renewable Polymers – and its flagship offerings include Releaf (a high-barrier film for CO₂ and O₂), furandicarboxylic acid (FDCA) as the building block for polyethylene furanoate (PEF), and the YXY catalytic process that converts plant-derived sugars into FDCA. The firm also markets the Flowrence catalyst-testing system and is advancing its Ray, Volta and Dawn technologies, notably a plant-scale MEG (methanol-to-ethylene-glycol) concept.
From publicly available data (Q3 2024), Avantium’s R&D spend averaged €45 million, roughly 30 % of its total revenue, and the company reported a licensing backlog of about €120 million for FDCA/PEF technologies. The global bio-plastics market is projected to expand at a 12-15 % CAGR through 2030, driven by EU packaging regulations that tighten single-use-plastic bans and increase demand for recyclable, low-carbon alternatives – a macro-economic tailwind that directly supports Avantium’s growth narrative.
Assumption: the FY 2025 revenue outlook hinges on successful scale-up of the YXY plant and the signing of at least two major beverage-packaging contracts; a delay in either could raise cash-burn beyond current guidance. Disconfirming evidence would include a slowdown in EU funding for renewable chemicals or a competitor achieving a cost-advantageous bio-based PET alternative, which would erode Avantium’s market share.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Avantium’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -49.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.62 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -10.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -336.2% < 20% (prev 92.22%; Δ -428.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.29 > 3% & CFO -85.9m > Net Income -49.1m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.19 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (8.68m) vs 12m ago -83.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -149.2% > 18% (prev -1.17%; Δ -14.8k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.19% > 50% (prev 12.60%; Δ 2.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -32.06 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -62.3m / Interest Expense TTM 2.16m) |
Altman Z'' -8.95
| A: -0.45 (Total Current Assets 30.8m - Total Current Liabilities 165.8m) / Total Assets 299.5m |
| B: -0.91 (Retained Earnings -272.3m / Total Assets 299.5m) |
| C: -0.26 (EBIT TTM -69.3m / Avg Total Assets 264.5m) |
| D: -1.20 (Book Value of Equity -259.8m / Total Liabilities 215.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -8.95 = D |
Beneish M -2.92
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 14.3m/10.7m, Revenue 40.2m/28.9m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.54 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.39 (Revenue 40.2m / 28.9m) |
| TATA: 0.12 (NI -49.1m - CFO -85.9m) / TA 299.5m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AVTX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.11%, over one month by -8.83%, over three months by +6.51% and over the past year by -43.68%.
Is AVTX a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVTX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 27.1 | 320.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.9 | -24.8% |
AVTX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 8.6384
P/B = 1.9639
Revenue TTM = 40.2m EUR
EBIT TTM = -69.3m EUR
EBITDA TTM = -62.3m EUR
Long Term Debt = 38.9m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 107.7m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 153.3m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 141.3m EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 303.4m EUR (162.1m + Debt 153.3m - CCE 12.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -32.06 (Ebit TTM -69.3m / Interest Expense TTM 2.16m)
EV/FCF = -1.64x (Enterprise Value 303.4m / FCF TTM -184.8m)
FCF Yield = -60.92% (FCF TTM -184.8m / Enterprise Value 303.4m)
FCF Margin = -460.2% (FCF TTM -184.8m / Revenue TTM 40.2m)
Net Margin = -122.3% (Net Income TTM -49.1m / Revenue TTM 40.2m)
Gross Margin = -149.2% ((Revenue TTM 40.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 100.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev -120.8%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 303.4m / Total Assets 299.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.22% (Interest Expense 331.0k / Debt 153.3m)
Taxrate = 25.0% (EU avg default 25%)
NOPAT = -52.0m (EBIT -69.3m * (1 - 25.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.19 (Total Current Assets 30.8m / Total Current Liabilities 165.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.81 (Debt 153.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 84.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.27 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 141.3m / EBITDA -62.3m)
Debt / FCF = -0.76 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 141.3m / FCF TTM -184.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 81.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -18.57% (Net Income -49.1m / Total Assets 299.5m)
RoE = -60.40% (Net Income TTM -49.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 81.3m)
RoCE = -57.68% (EBIT -69.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 81.3m + L.T.Debt 38.9m))
RoIC = -25.83% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -52.0m / Invested Capital 201.3m)
WACC = 3.42% (E(162.1m)/V(315.4m) * Re(6.50%) + D(153.3m)/V(315.4m) * Rd(0.22%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -57.06%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -184.8m)
EPS Correlation: -66.54 | EPS CAGR: -34.93% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.61 | Revenue CAGR: 13.98% | SUE: -1.04 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.15 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+59.3% | Growth Revenue=+106.4%