(HEIA) Heineken - Ratings and Ratios
Beer, Cider, Malt, Soft Drinks
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.75% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.39% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 13.57% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 37.1% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 29.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.89% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.08 |
| Alpha | 0.86 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.18 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.507 |
| Beta | -0.090 |
| Beta Downside | 0.020 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.50% |
| Mean DD | 18.91% |
| Median DD | 20.02% |
Description: HEIA Heineken December 04, 2025
Heineken N.V. (ticker HEIA) is a Dutch-based brewer that produces and sells a broad portfolio of beer, cider, wine, malt-based drinks, soft drinks, and bottled water across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. Its brands range from global flagship labels such as Heineken, Desperados and Strongbow to regional favorites like Birra Moretti, Kingfisher, Tecate and Lagunitas, serving retailers, wholesalers, on-trade venues and hospitality outlets.
In FY 2023 the company generated €27.2 billion in revenue and delivered an adjusted EBIT margin of roughly 15%, supported by a 2 % increase in volume sold and a 4 % rise in average selling price, reflecting continued premiumisation in mature markets. The business’s free cash flow conversion remained above 80%, enabling a steady dividend yield of ~4.5% and ongoing share-repurchase activity.
Key economic drivers for Heineken include (1) shifting consumer preferences toward premium and low-alcohol offerings, (2) growth potential in emerging markets where per-capita beer consumption is still rising, and (3) exposure to commodity price volatility-particularly barley and aluminum-plus tightening ESG regulations that affect packaging and supply-chain costs.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Heineken’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at the analytics on ValueRay can help surface the most material assumptions to test.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (3.72b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.74b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.51pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -8.30% (prev -12.62%; Δ 4.32pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.76b > Net Income 3.72b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (13.36b) to EBITDA (9.18b) ratio: 1.45 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (564.9m) change vs 12m ago -0.36% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 11.25% (prev 18.21%; Δ -6.95pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 84.01% (prev 54.33%; Δ 29.68pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.80 (EBITDA TTM 9.18b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.01
| (A) -0.07 = (Total Current Assets 11.08b - Total Current Liabilities 14.86b) / Total Assets 51.63b |
| (B) 0.37 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 19.20b / Total Assets 51.63b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 5.13b / Avg Total Assets 54.27b |
| (D) 0.61 = Book Value of Equity 19.20b / Total Liabilities 31.40b |
| Total Rating: 2.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.37
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.82% |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.89 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.45 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 16.90)% |
| 7. RoE 19.39% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 72.17% |
| 9. EPS Trend -18.65% |
What is the price of HEIA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.40%, over one month by -1.64%, over three months by +6.82% and over the past year by +4.49%.
Is HEIA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the HEIA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 86.3 | 24.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 73.1 | 5.1% |
HEIA Fundamental Data Overview December 22, 2025
Market Cap EUR = 39.51b (39.51b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 21.8704
P/E Forward = 15.1057
P/S = 1.3253
P/B = 2.1817
P/EG = 0.5883
Beta = 0.478
Revenue TTM = 45.60b EUR
EBIT TTM = 5.13b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 9.18b EUR
Long Term Debt = 12.75b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.95b EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 15.71b EUR (Calculated: Short Term 2.95b + Long Term 12.75b)
Net Debt = 13.36b EUR (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 53.15b EUR (39.51b + Debt 15.71b - CCE 2.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.80 (Ebit TTM 5.13b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.82% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Enterprise Value 53.15b)
FCF Margin = 6.79% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Net Margin = 8.16% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Gross Margin = 11.25% ((Revenue TTM 45.60b - Cost of Revenue TTM 40.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.22% (prev 10.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 53.15b / Total Assets 51.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.20% (Interest Expense 345.0m / Debt 15.71b)
Taxrate = 2.84% (32.0m / 1.13b)
NOPAT = 4.99b (EBIT 5.13b * (1 - 2.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 11.08b / Total Current Liabilities 14.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 15.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.45 (Net Debt 13.36b / EBITDA 9.18b)
Debt / FCF = 4.32 (Net Debt 13.36b / FCF TTM 3.10b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.21% (Net Income 3.72b / Total Assets 51.63b)
RoE = 19.39% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.19b)
RoCE = 16.06% (EBIT 5.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.19b + L.T.Debt 12.75b))
RoIC = 21.57% (NOPAT 4.99b / Invested Capital 23.12b)
WACC = 4.67% (E(39.51b)/V(55.21b) * Re(5.68%) + D(15.71b)/V(55.21b) * Rd(2.20%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 5.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.93%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.13% ; FCFE base≈3.34b ; Y1≈3.09b ; Y5≈2.82b
Fair Price DCF = 90.84 (DCF Value 50.65b / Shares Outstanding 557.5m; 5y FCF grow -9.23% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -18.65 | EPS CAGR: -65.52% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 72.17 | Revenue CAGR: 22.98% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.11 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+9.3% | Growth Revenue=+4.2%