(HEIA) Heineken - Overview
Stock: Beer, Cider, Soft Drinks, Water, Wine
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.55% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.36% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 18.15% |
| Payout Consistency | 93.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 37.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.38% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.22 |
| Alpha | 8.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.114 |
| Beta Downside | 0.048 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.50% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.18 |
Description: HEIA Heineken January 29, 2026
Heineken N.V. (ticker HEIA) is a globally diversified brewer headquartered in Amsterdam, producing and distributing beer, cider, wine, soft drinks, and bottled water across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. Its portfolio spans flagship labels such as Heineken, Heineken Silver, Dos Equis, and Lagunitas, as well as regional brands like Kingfisher, Tiger, and Bia Viet, serving retailers, on-trade venues, and hospitality channels.
In FY 2023 Heineken reported net revenue of €30.9 billion, a 4.2 % organic volume growth driven primarily by strong performance in emerging markets (Latin America + 6.5 % and Africa + 5.8 %). Adjusted EBIT margin held at 15.3 %, reflecting disciplined cost management amid rising commodity prices. The company’s exposure to inflation-linked pricing and its 2024 capital-expenditure plan of €2.5 billion to expand high-margin craft and non-alcoholic segments underscore the sector’s shift toward premiumisation and health-conscious consumption.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of Heineken’s valuation dynamics, consider exploring the detailed analyst models on ValueRay to benchmark its forward-looking cash-flow assumptions against peer-group baselines.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 2.50b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.18% < 20% (prev -9.03%; Δ 1.85% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 10.59b > Net Income 2.50b |
| Net Debt (15.52b) to EBITDA (9.82b): 1.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (559.4m) vs 12m ago -1.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.99% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 2086 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 97.19% > 50% (prev 75.98%; Δ 21.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.69 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 9.82b / Interest Expense TTM 1.32b) |
Altman Z'' 2.00
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 11.08b - Total Current Liabilities 14.86b) / Total Assets 51.63b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 21.18b / Total Assets 51.63b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 4.87b / Avg Total Assets 54.27b) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 16.07b / Total Liabilities 31.40b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.00 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.60
| DSRI: 0.72 (Receivables 5.21b/5.89b, Revenue 52.75b/43.24b) |
| GMI: 0.63 (GM 20.99% / 13.21%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 1.22 (Revenue 52.75b / 43.24b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 2.50b - CFO 10.59b) / TA 51.63b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.60 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of HEIA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.26%, over one month by +7.91%, over three months by +6.75% and over the past year by +12.25%.
Is HEIA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the HEIA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 86.3 | 17.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 72.2 | -2% |
HEIA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 21.8704
P/E Forward = 15.2439
P/S = 1.3179
P/B = 2.154
P/EG = 0.5938
Revenue TTM = 52.75b EUR
EBIT TTM = 4.87b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 9.82b EUR
Long Term Debt = 12.75b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.09b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.59b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.52b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 55.03b EUR (39.51b + Debt 17.59b - CCE 2.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.69 (Ebit TTM 4.87b / Interest Expense TTM 1.32b)
EV/FCF = 9.65x (Enterprise Value 55.03b / FCF TTM 5.71b)
FCF Yield = 10.37% (FCF TTM 5.71b / Enterprise Value 55.03b)
FCF Margin = 10.82% (FCF TTM 5.71b / Revenue TTM 52.75b)
Net Margin = 4.74% (Net Income TTM 2.50b / Revenue TTM 52.75b)
Gross Margin = 20.99% ((Revenue TTM 52.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 41.68b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.87% (prev 13.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 55.03b / Total Assets 51.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.68% (Interest Expense 295.0m / Debt 17.59b)
Taxrate = 29.88% (183.0m / 612.5m)
NOPAT = 3.42b (EBIT 4.87b * (1 - 29.88%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 11.08b / Total Current Liabilities 14.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.99 (Debt 17.59b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.58 (Net Debt 15.52b / EBITDA 9.82b)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 15.52b / FCF TTM 5.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.60% (Net Income 2.50b / Total Assets 51.63b)
RoE = 13.02% (Net Income TTM 2.50b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.19b)
RoCE = 15.25% (EBIT 4.87b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.19b + L.T.Debt 12.75b))
RoIC = 14.77% (NOPAT 3.42b / Invested Capital 23.12b)
WACC = 4.17% (E(39.51b)/V(57.09b) * Re(5.50%) + D(17.59b)/V(57.09b) * Rd(1.68%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 5.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.54% ; FCFF base≈4.24b ; Y1≈3.93b ; Y5≈3.58b
Fair Price DCF = 165.3 (EV 107.69b - Net Debt 15.52b = Equity 92.17b / Shares 557.5m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -9.23% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -18.65 | EPS CAGR: -65.52% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 47.18 | Revenue CAGR: -13.22% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.11 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+9.3% | Growth Revenue=+4.2%