(MT) ArcelorMittal - Ratings and Ratios
Steel, Slabs, Coils, Plates, Pipes
MT EPS (Earnings per Share)
MT Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 45.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.84% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.10 |
| Alpha | 37.98 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.390 |
| Beta | 0.420 |
| Beta Downside | 0.618 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.54% |
| Mean DD | 16.85% |
| Median DD | 17.53% |
Description: MT ArcelorMittal October 14, 2025
ArcelorMittal S.A. (ticker MT) is a globally integrated steel and mining group headquartered in Luxembourg, operating across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Its product portfolio spans semi-finished flat and long steel (slabs, coils, plates, bars, wire-rods, rails, etc.), specialty coated steel (hot-dipped, electro-galvanized, tinplate, color-coated), and seamless or welded pipes, as well as mining outputs such as iron-ore lumps, fines, pellets, and coking coal. Sales are channeled through a centralized marketing organization to end-users in automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery sectors, supported by a network of distributors.
Key quantitative signals (as of FY 2023) include: • Total steel production of roughly 71 million tonnes, making the company the world’s largest steelmaker by volume; • EBITDA margin of ≈ 13 % (down ~ 2 pp from 2022, reflecting higher energy and raw-material costs); • Exposure to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which could add ~ €0.8 billion to annual operating costs if carbon pricing remains near €80 per tonne CO₂e. Macro drivers that dominate the business are global steel demand growth (≈ 3 % YoY in 2023, led by construction and automotive recovery) and the price trajectory of iron-ore and coking coal, which together account for ≈ 55 % of total input costs.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of ArcelorMittal’s exposure to carbon pricing and its impact on margins, the ValueRay platform offers a granular model worth reviewing.
MT Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 29,941m |
| Sub-Industry | Steel |
| IPO / Inception | 1997-08-08 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 36.8% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
MT Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.38% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.65% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 30.55% |
| Payout Consistency | 63.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 16.2% |
MT Growth Ratios
| CAGR 3y | 12.46% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.35 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 0.74 |
| Current Volume | 1405.8k |
| Average Volume | 1576.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (2.50b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.64b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.09pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 15.46% (prev 16.80%; Δ -1.34pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO 4.94b > Net Income 2.50b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (7.19b) to EBITDA (4.60b) ratio: 1.56 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.40 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (760.5m) change vs 12m ago -3.17% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 6.57% (prev 2.31%; Δ 4.26pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 63.92% (prev 70.12%; Δ -6.20pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.87 (EBITDA TTM 4.60b / Interest Expense TTM 488.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.61
| (A) 0.09 = (Total Current Assets 32.97b - Total Current Liabilities 23.60b) / Total Assets 98.88b |
| (B) 0.50 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 49.41b / Total Assets 98.88b |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 1.89b / Avg Total Assets 94.86b |
| (D) 1.16 = Book Value of Equity 49.41b / Total Liabilities 42.41b |
| Total Rating: 3.61 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 39.19
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt = 0.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.43% = 1.22 |
| 3. FCF Margin 1.49% = 0.37 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.23 = 2.47 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.56 = 0.84 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -6.60)% = -8.25 |
| 7. RoE 4.80% = 0.40 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -76.68% = -5.75 |
| 9. EPS Trend -42.36% = -2.12 |
What is the price of MT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.09%, over one month by +4.96%, over three months by +22.33% and over the past year by +55.76%.
Is ArcelorMittal a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of MT is around 35.18 EUR . This means that MT is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 1.3%.
Is MT a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the MT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.6 | 5.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 39.3 | 13.1% |
MT Fundamental Data Overview January 01, 1970
Market Cap USD = 29.94b (25.83b EUR * 1.159 EUR.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.5544
P/E Forward = 9.1408
P/S = 0.4228
P/B = 0.5419
P/EG = 0.6568
Beta = 1.684
Revenue TTM = 60.63b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.89b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.60b USD
Long Term Debt = 9.56b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.99b USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.55b USD (Calculated: Short Term 2.99b + Long Term 9.56b)
Net Debt = 7.19b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 37.14b USD (29.94b + Debt 12.55b - CCE 5.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.87 (Ebit TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM 488.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.43% (FCF TTM 904.0m / Enterprise Value 37.14b)
FCF Margin = 1.49% (FCF TTM 904.0m / Revenue TTM 60.63b)
Net Margin = 4.11% (Net Income TTM 2.50b / Revenue TTM 60.63b)
Gross Margin = 6.57% ((Revenue TTM 60.63b - Cost of Revenue TTM 56.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.38 (Enterprise Value 37.14b / Total Assets 98.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.38% (Interest Expense 48.0m / Debt 12.55b)
Taxrate = 29.47% (623.0m / 2.11b)
NOPAT = 1.33b (EBIT 1.89b * (1 - 29.47%))
Current Ratio = 1.40 (Total Current Assets 32.97b / Total Current Liabilities 23.60b)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 12.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 54.38b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.56 (Net Debt 7.19b / EBITDA 4.60b)
Debt / FCF = 7.96 (Net Debt 7.19b / FCF TTM 904.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 52.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.52% (Net Income 2.50b / Total Assets 98.88b)
RoE = 4.80% (Net Income TTM 2.50b / Total Stockholder Equity 52.03b)
RoCE = 3.07% (EBIT 1.89b / Capital Employed (Equity 52.03b + L.T.Debt 9.56b))
RoIC = 2.09% (NOPAT 1.33b / Invested Capital 63.63b)
WACC = 8.69% (E(29.94b)/V(42.49b) * Re(12.22%) + D(12.55b)/V(42.49b) * Rd(0.38%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 12.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -10.36%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 54.21% ; FCFE base≈840.8m ; Y1≈552.0m ; Y5≈252.4m
Fair Price DCF = 3.84 (DCF Value 2.92b / Shares Outstanding 760.5m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -42.36 | EPS CAGR: -31.19% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -76.68 | Revenue CAGR: -6.17% | SUE: 0.26 | # QB: 0