(OCI) OCI - Ratings and Ratios
Ammonia, Methanol, Urea, Nitrogen, Melamine
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 120.62% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 303.36% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.42% |
| Payout Consistency | 86.2% |
| Payout Ratio | - |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 35.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 44.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -22.66% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.03 |
| Alpha | -37.49 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.24 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.342 |
| Beta | 0.136 |
| Beta Downside | -0.019 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.59% |
| Mean DD | 12.99% |
| Median DD | 11.01% |
Description: OCI OCI January 15, 2026
OCI N.V. (AS: OCI) is a Dutch-based producer and distributor of hydrogen-derived and natural-gas-derived nitrogen chemicals, serving agricultural, transportation, and industrial markets across Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. The firm operates through three reporting segments-Methanol US, Methanol Europe, and Nitrogen Europe-and offers a portfolio that includes anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea-ammonium-nitrate solutions, calcium ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate, renewable-low-carbon ammonia, nitric acid, bio-methanol, methanol, melamine, CO₂, and diesel-exhaust fluid, plus ancillary storage and shipping services for ammonia at Rotterdam.
Key operational metrics: as of FY 2023, OCI reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 12 % and a total production capacity of ~5 Mt CO₂-equivalent of nitrogen products, with a 30 % share of its ammonia output sold into the EU market, where tightening nitrogen-emission standards are driving demand for low-carbon fertilizers. The company’s exposure to natural-gas price volatility remains a material risk, but its recent investments in green-hydrogen and bio-methanol projects aim to decouple earnings from fossil-fuel input costs and align with the EU’s Green Deal incentives.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, see the OCI page on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income (-220.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 154.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -12.56pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 39.13% (prev 3.54%; Δ 35.59pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 (>3.0%) and CFO 553.0m > Net Income -220.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.65 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last fiscal year (210.9m) change vs prev FY 0.14% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 8.46% (prev 23.54%; Δ -15.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 39.55% (prev 76.81%; Δ -37.26pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -0.43 (EBITDA TTM -55.5m / Interest Expense TTM 165.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.53
| (A) 0.28 = (Total Current Assets 2.55b - Total Current Liabilities 1.54b) / Total Assets 3.54b |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 479.0m / Total Assets 3.54b |
| (C) -0.01 = EBIT TTM -71.6m / Avg Total Assets 6.50b |
| (D) 0.29 = Book Value of Equity 479.0m / Total Liabilities 1.67b |
| Total Rating: 2.53 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 32.88
| 1. Piotroski 2.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.33% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.10% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.34 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -13.17 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.27)% |
| 7. RoE -18.93% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -54.82% |
| 9. EPS Trend -70.57% |
What is the price of OCI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.46%, over one month by +4.55%, over three months by -14.91% and over the past year by -31.13%.
Is OCI a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the OCI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.8 | 91.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 10.5 | 244.4% |
OCI Fundamental Data Overview January 18, 2026
Market Cap USD = 887.1m (761.8m EUR * 1.1645 EUR.USD)
P/E Forward = 30.2115
P/S = 0.6232
P/B = 0.4044
Revenue TTM = 2.57b USD
EBIT TTM = -71.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -55.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.76b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 739.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.50b USD (Calculated: Short Term 739.0m + Long Term 1.76b)
Net Debt = 730.9m USD (calculated as Total Debt 2.50b - CCE 1.77b)
Enterprise Value = 1.62b USD (887.1m + Debt 2.50b - CCE 1.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.43 (Ebit TTM -71.6m / Interest Expense TTM 165.0m)
EV/FCF = 30.02x (Enterprise Value 1.62b / FCF TTM 53.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.33% (FCF TTM 53.9m / Enterprise Value 1.62b)
FCF Margin = 2.10% (FCF TTM 53.9m / Revenue TTM 2.57b)
Net Margin = -8.56% (Net Income TTM -220.0m / Revenue TTM 2.57b)
Gross Margin = 8.46% ((Revenue TTM 2.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.35b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.86% (prev 3.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 1.62b / Total Assets 3.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.24% (Interest Expense 31.0m / Debt 2.50b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -56.6m (EBIT -71.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 2.55b / Total Current Liabilities 1.54b)
Debt / Equity = 1.34 (Debt 2.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.17 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 730.9m / EBITDA -55.5m)
Debt / FCF = 13.56 (Net Debt 730.9m / FCF TTM 53.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.38% (Net Income -220.0m / Total Assets 3.54b)
RoE = -18.93% (Net Income TTM -220.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.16b)
RoCE = -2.45% (EBIT -71.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.16b + L.T.Debt 1.76b))
RoIC = -1.87% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -56.6m / Invested Capital 3.03b)
WACC = 2.40% (E(887.1m)/V(3.39b) * Re(6.40%) + D(2.50b)/V(3.39b) * Rd(1.24%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.33% ; FCFF base≈565.7m ; Y1≈689.9m ; Y5≈1.14b
Fair Price DCF = 154.7 (EV 33.37b - Net Debt 730.9m = Equity 32.64b / Shares 210.9m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 23.49% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -70.57 | EPS CAGR: -65.41% | SUE: -3.96 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -54.82 | Revenue CAGR: -19.02% | SUE: -1.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=-0.046 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+168.2% | Growth Revenue=-0.7%