(OCI) OCI - Ratings and Ratios
Ammonia, Urea, Methanol, Nitrogen, Fertilizers
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 200.81% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 381.87% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 70.56% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.9% |
| Payout Ratio | - |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 44.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.17% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.89 |
| Alpha | -26.89 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.287 |
| Beta | 0.135 |
| Beta Downside | 0.109 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.63% |
| Mean DD | 15.07% |
| Median DD | 13.89% |
Description: OCI OCI November 12, 2025
OCI N.V. (AS:OCI) is a Dutch-based chemicals group that manufactures and distributes a broad portfolio of nitrogen-based products-including anhydrous ammonia, urea, calcium ammonium nitrate, and bio-methanol-to agricultural, transportation, and industrial customers across Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Oceania. The business is organized into three operating segments: Methanol US, Methanol Europe, and Nitrogen Europe, and it also offers ammonia storage and shipment services at the Port of Rotterdam.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year (2023) show an adjusted EBITDA of approximately €1.1 billion, a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.3×, and a production capacity of roughly 3.5 million tonnes of ammonia, of which about 10 % was classified as “renewable” or lower-carbon ammonia. The company’s return on capital employed (ROCE) hovered near 9 %, reflecting a modest but stable profitability profile in a capital-intensive sector.
The primary economic drivers for OCI are global fertilizer demand, which is closely linked to grain production growth (projected at 1.5 %-2 % CAGR through 2030), and the price volatility of natural gas-the dominant input cost for nitrogen chemicals. A secondary driver is the accelerating regulatory push toward low-carbon ammonia, which is creating a premium market niche and incentivizing capital allocation toward greener production pathways.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of OCI’s valuation dynamics and scenario modeling, you may find ValueRay’s platform a useful next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income (-220.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 154.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -12.56pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 39.13% (prev 3.54%; Δ 35.59pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 (>3.0%) and CFO 553.0m > Net Income -220.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.65 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (NaN) change vs 12m ago NaN% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 8.46% (prev 23.54%; Δ -15.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 39.55% (prev 76.81%; Δ -37.26pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -0.43 (EBITDA TTM -55.5m / Interest Expense TTM 165.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.53
| (A) 0.28 = (Total Current Assets 2.55b - Total Current Liabilities 1.54b) / Total Assets 3.54b |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 479.0m / Total Assets 3.54b |
| (C) -0.01 = EBIT TTM -71.6m / Avg Total Assets 6.50b |
| (D) 0.29 = Book Value of Equity 479.0m / Total Liabilities 1.67b |
| Total Rating: 2.53 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 31.27
| 1. Piotroski 2.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.34% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.10% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.34 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -13.17 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -5.64)% |
| 7. RoE -18.93% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -53.41% |
| 9. EPS Trend -70.57% |
What is the price of OCI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.76%, over one month by -0.97%, over three months by -29.99% and over the past year by -19.55%.
Is OCI a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the OCI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.8 | 72.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.9 | 342.6% |
OCI Fundamental Data Overview November 24, 2025
Market Cap USD = 883.8m (761.8m EUR * 1.1602 EUR.USD)
P/E Forward = 30.2115
P/S = 0.6821
P/B = 0.4358
Beta = 0.288
Revenue TTM = 2.57b USD
EBIT TTM = -71.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -55.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.76b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 739.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.50b USD (Calculated: Short Term 739.0m + Long Term 1.76b)
Net Debt = 730.9m USD (calculated as Total Debt 2.50b - CCE 1.77b)
Enterprise Value = 1.61b USD (883.8m + Debt 2.50b - CCE 1.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.43 (Ebit TTM -71.6m / Interest Expense TTM 165.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.34% (FCF TTM 53.9m / Enterprise Value 1.61b)
FCF Margin = 2.10% (FCF TTM 53.9m / Revenue TTM 2.57b)
Net Margin = -8.56% (Net Income TTM -220.0m / Revenue TTM 2.57b)
Gross Margin = 8.46% ((Revenue TTM 2.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.35b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.86% (prev 3.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 1.61b / Total Assets 3.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.24% (Interest Expense 31.0m / Debt 2.50b)
Taxrate = -20.16% (negative due to tax credits) (17.9m / -88.8m)
NOPAT = -86.0m (EBIT -71.6m * (1 - -20.16%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 2.55b / Total Current Liabilities 1.54b)
Debt / Equity = 1.34 (Debt 2.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.17 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 730.9m / EBITDA -55.5m)
Debt / FCF = 13.56 (Net Debt 730.9m / FCF TTM 53.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.22% (Net Income -220.0m / Total Assets 3.54b)
RoE = -18.93% (Net Income TTM -220.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.16b)
RoCE = -2.45% (EBIT -71.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.16b + L.T.Debt 1.76b))
RoIC = -2.84% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -86.0m / Invested Capital 3.03b)
WACC = 2.80% (E(883.8m)/V(3.38b) * Re(6.51%) + D(2.50b)/V(3.38b) * Rd(1.24%) * (1-Tc(-0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.27% ; FCFE base≈565.7m ; Y1≈690.0m ; Y5≈1.15b
Fair Price DCF = 92.64 (DCF Value 19.54b / Shares Outstanding 210.9m; 5y FCF grow 23.49% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -70.57 | EPS CAGR: -65.41% | SUE: -3.96 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -53.41 | Revenue CAGR: -19.02% | SUE: -1.36 | # QB: 0