UMG Stock Analysis: Universal Music | AS
Entertainment | AS, Netherlands | Market Cap: 34.864m EUR | 12M Return: -28% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 59.1M
EPS Trend: 28.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 91.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 4.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) is a Netherlands-based global music company operating through three segments: Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other. The Recorded Music segment handles artist development, distribution, and licensing across formats and platforms, while also extending into live events, sponsorship, film, and television. The Music Publishing segment focuses on songwriter development and the ownership and administration of composition copyrights used in recordings, public performances, films, and advertising. The Merchandising & Other segment produces and sells artist-branded products through retail, touring, and online channels, and provides brand rights management services. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.
UMG is one of the three major recorded-music companies that dominate the global industry, alongside Sony Music and Warner Music Group. Its business model is built on two primary revenue engines: recorded music (largely driven by streaming subscriptions and licensing) and music publishing (collecting royalties whenever compositions are performed, reproduced, or synchronized). Recorded music distribution has shifted decisively from physical sales to digital streaming, where platforms such as Spotify and Apple Music pay labels per stream, making catalog depth and hit-making capabilities central to competitive positioning.
- Streaming subscription growth drives recorded music segment revenue
- TikTok and platform licensing disputes risk streaming royalty income
- Catalog acquisitions expand publishing margins and earnings power
| Net Income: 1.53b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -21.04% < 20% (prev -32.24%; Δ 11.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 1.87b > Net Income 1.53b |
| Net Debt (3.89b) to EBITDA (3.57b): 1.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.83b) vs 12m ago -1.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.90% > 18% (prev 40.18%; Δ -1.28% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.82% > 50% (prev 52.96%; Δ 17.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.42 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.13b / Interest Expense TTM 233.0m) |
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 4.58b - Total Current Liabilities 7.21b) / Total Assets 17.5b |
| B: -1.65 (Retained Earnings -28.9b / Total Assets 17.5b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 3.13b / Avg Total Assets 17.7b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 4.54b / Total Liabilities 12.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.82 = D |
| DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 2.61b/2.53b, Revenue 12.5b/9.46b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 40.18% / 38.90%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.70 / AQ_t-1 0.71) |
| SGI: 1.32 (Revenue 12.5b / 9.46b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 1.53b - CFO 1.87b) / TA 17.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 06, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 19.00 with a total of 1,261,778 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.49%, over one month by +4.66%, over three months by +1.04% and over the past year by -28.00%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.40 (which is 3.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Universal Music has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 22.9036
P/E Forward = 17.5439
P/S = 2.7875
P/B = 7.7246
P/EG = 2.6599
Revenue TTM = 12.5b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.13b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.57b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.30b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 630.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.97b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 561.0m
Net Debt = 3.89b EUR (calculated: Debt 3.97b - CCE 82.0m)
Enterprise Value = 38.7b EUR (34.9b + Debt 3.97b - CCE 82.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.42 (Ebit TTM 3.13b / Interest Expense TTM 233.0m)
EV/FCF = 23.23x (Enterprise Value 38.7b / FCF TTM 1.67b)
FCF Yield = 4.30% (FCF TTM 1.67b / Enterprise Value 38.7b)
FCF Margin = 13.34% (FCF TTM 1.67b / Revenue TTM 12.5b)
Net Margin = 12.26% (Net Income TTM 1.53b / Revenue TTM 12.5b)
Gross Margin = 38.90% ((Revenue TTM 12.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.41% (prev 39.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.22 (Enterprise Value 38.7b / Total Assets 17.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.87% (Interest Expense 233.0m / Debt 3.97b)
Taxrate = 26.17% (546.0m / 2.09b)
NOPAT = 2.31b (EBIT 3.13b * (1 - 26.17%))
Current Ratio = 0.63 (Total Current Assets 4.58b / Total Current Liabilities 7.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.87 (Debt 3.97b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.09 (Net Debt 3.89b / EBITDA 3.57b)
Debt / FCF = 2.33 (Net Debt 3.89b / FCF TTM 1.67b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.68% (Net Income 1.53b / Total Assets 17.5b)
RoE = 33.20% (Net Income TTM 1.53b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.62b)
RoCE = 45.23% (EBIT 3.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.62b + L.T.Debt 2.30b))
RoIC = 21.39% (NOPAT 2.31b / Invested Capital 10.8b)
WACC = 6.27% (E(34.9b)/V(38.8b) * Re(6.49%) + D(3.97b)/V(38.8b) * Rd(5.87%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -4.49 | Cagr: 0.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈1.86b ; Y1≈1.63b ; Y5≈1.32b
[DCF] Fair Price = 9.40 (EV 21.1b - Net Debt 3.89b = Equity 17.2b / Shares 1.83b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 28.30 | EPS CAGR: 7.65% | SUE: -2.55 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 91.88 | Revenue CAGR: 12.77% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=-15.76% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.06 | Chg30d=+0.32% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+2.9% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.14 | Chg30d=+0.25% | Revisions=-18% | GrowthEPS=+8.1% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -5% (up=9, down=10)