(UMG) Universal Music - Ratings and Ratios
Recorded Music, Music Publishing, Merchandise
UMG EPS (Earnings per Share)
UMG Revenue
Description: UMG Universal Music September 29, 2025
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) is a global music-industry operator organized into three core segments: Recorded Music, which signs and develops artists while licensing, marketing, promoting, and distributing their recordings across physical, digital, and streaming platforms and also runs live-event, sponsorship, film and TV activities; Music Publishing, which signs songwriters, owns and administers composition copyrights, and monetizes those works through recordings, public performances, sync placements in film, advertising and other media; and Merchandising & Other, which creates and sells artist-branded products through fashion retail, concert venues and e-commerce, and provides brand-rights management services.
Incorporated in 2020 and headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands, UMG trades under the ticker “UMG” on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange and is classified under the GICS sub-industry “Movies & Entertainment.”
Key recent metrics (2023) show UMG generating roughly €12.5 billion in revenue, with streaming accounting for about 65 % of total sales and a gross margin near 30 %; its publishing arm contributed €2.8 billion, driven by a 12 % YoY rise in sync-licensing revenue as advertisers increase spend on music-driven content. The sector’s primary growth driver remains the continued expansion of subscription-based streaming services, which are projected to reach 600 million global users by 2026, while macro-economic pressures on discretionary spending could modestly compress live-event margins.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of UMG’s valuation dynamics-including scenario-based cash-flow models and peer-adjusted multiples-explore the detailed breakdown on ValueRay.
UMG Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 50,729m |
| Sub-Industry | Movies & Entertainment |
| IPO / Inception |
UMG Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 19.7% |
| Fundamental | 76.9% |
| Dividend Rating | 63.6% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -15.4% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
UMG Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 2.26% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.28% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 36.62% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 33.1% |
UMG Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | -61.4% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 15.1% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 67.1% |
| CAGR 5y | 3.30% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.12 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 0.36 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.69 |
| Alpha | -13.66 |
| Beta | 0.822 |
| Volatility | 24.55% |
| Current Volume | 1661.1k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1753.4k |
| Stop Loss | 22.3 (-3.2%) |
| Signal | 0.43 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (2.67b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 899.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -3.22pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -17.59% (prev -17.94%; Δ 0.34pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.57b <= Net Income 2.67b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.73b) to EBITDA (4.59b) ratio: 0.60 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.63 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.83b) change vs 12m ago -1.68% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 41.46% (prev 41.82%; Δ -0.36pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 89.57% (prev 109.9%; Δ -20.30pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 28.02 (EBITDA TTM 4.59b / Interest Expense TTM 142.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -6.67
| (A) -0.14 = (Total Current Assets 4.54b - Total Current Liabilities 7.17b) / Total Assets 18.30b |
| (B) -1.56 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -28.55b / Total Assets 18.30b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.56 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.24 = EBIT TTM 3.98b / Avg Total Assets 16.73b |
| (D) -2.13 = Book Value of Equity -28.55b / Total Liabilities 13.39b |
| Total Rating: -6.67 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.94
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt = -1.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.21% = 2.60 |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.68% = 3.92 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.39 = 2.43 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.60 = 2.23 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 44.00)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 61.57% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 18.61% = 1.40 |
| 9. EPS Trend 17.29% = 0.86 |
What is the price of UMG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.07%, over one month by -4.46%, over three months by -8.63% and over the past year by +0.39%.
Is Universal Music a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of UMG is around 20.27 EUR . This means that UMG is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -12.02%.
Is UMG a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the UMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 29.3 | 27% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.7 | -1.6% |
UMG Fundamental Data Overview January 01, 1970
Market Cap EUR = 43.70b (43.70b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 16.9007
P/E Forward = 21.5054
P/S = 3.5853
P/B = 9.3894
P/EG = 2.7386
Beta = 0.822
Revenue TTM = 14.99b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.98b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.59b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.18b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.05b EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.90b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 2.73b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 45.11b EUR (43.70b + Debt 1.90b - CCE 493.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 28.02 (Ebit TTM 3.98b / Interest Expense TTM 142.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.21% (FCF TTM 2.35b / Enterprise Value 45.11b)
FCF Margin = 15.68% (FCF TTM 2.35b / Revenue TTM 14.99b)
Net Margin = 17.83% (Net Income TTM 2.67b / Revenue TTM 14.99b)
Gross Margin = 41.46% ((Revenue TTM 14.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.06% (prev 42.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.46 (Enterprise Value 45.11b / Total Assets 18.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.11% (Interest Expense 78.0m / Debt 1.90b)
Taxrate = 27.13% (433.0m / 1.60b)
NOPAT = 2.90b (EBIT 3.98b * (1 - 27.13%))
Current Ratio = 0.63 (Total Current Assets 4.54b / Total Current Liabilities 7.17b)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.60 (Net Debt 2.73b / EBITDA 4.59b)
Debt / FCF = 1.16 (Net Debt 2.73b / FCF TTM 2.35b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.60% (Net Income 2.67b / Total Assets 18.30b)
RoE = 61.57% (Net Income TTM 2.67b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.34b)
RoCE = 61.05% (EBIT 3.98b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.34b + L.T.Debt 2.18b))
RoIC = 52.79% (NOPAT 2.90b / Invested Capital 5.49b)
WACC = 8.79% (E(43.70b)/V(45.60b) * Re(9.04%) + D(1.90b)/V(45.60b) * Rd(4.11%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.15%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.27% ; FCFE base≈2.38b ; Y1≈2.94b ; Y5≈5.02b
Fair Price DCF = 38.67 (DCF Value 70.91b / Shares Outstanding 1.83b; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 17.29 | EPS CAGR: 30.67% | SUE: 2.75 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 18.61 | Revenue CAGR: 42.82% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0