(UMG) Universal Music - Ratings and Ratios
Recorded Music, Music Publishing, Merchandising
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.42% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.28% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 36.62% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.5% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 37.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.36% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.29 |
| Alpha | -11.65 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.496 |
| Beta | 0.062 |
| Beta Downside | 0.215 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 27.53% |
| Mean DD | 9.77% |
| Median DD | 7.10% |
Description: UMG Universal Music December 03, 2025
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) is a global music-industry operator organized into three core segments: Recorded Music, which signs, develops, markets and distributes artists and also runs live-event and media licensing activities; Music Publishing, which signs songwriters, owns composition copyrights and monetizes them through recordings, public performances and sync placements; and Merchandising & Other, which creates and sells artist-branded products and provides brand-rights services across retail, touring and e-commerce channels. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.
Key recent metrics (2023-2024) suggest a strong streaming-centric business model: total revenue reached roughly $12.2 billion, with streaming accounting for about 70 % of Recorded Music earnings and delivering an operating margin near 15 %. Music-publishing royalties grew ≈5 % YoY, driven by higher sync licensing activity in film, advertising and emerging short-form video platforms. A primary macro driver is the continued expansion of global paid-streaming subscribers, which the IFPI estimates grew ≈10 % year-over-year in 2023, underpinning both recorded-music and publishing cash flows.
If you’re evaluating UMG’s valuation or competitive positioning, a deeper dive into its streaming-revenue mix, royalty-rate trends and the impact of AI-generated content on publishing royalties is worthwhile-ValueRay’s analytics platform can help surface those granular insights.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (2.67b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 899.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -3.22pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -17.59% (prev -17.94%; Δ 0.34pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.57b <= Net Income 2.67b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.73b) to EBITDA (4.59b) ratio: 0.60 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.63 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.83b) change vs 12m ago -1.68% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 41.46% (prev 41.82%; Δ -0.36pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 89.57% (prev 109.9%; Δ -20.30pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 28.02 (EBITDA TTM 4.59b / Interest Expense TTM 142.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -6.67
| (A) -0.14 = (Total Current Assets 4.54b - Total Current Liabilities 7.17b) / Total Assets 18.30b |
| (B) -1.56 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -28.55b / Total Assets 18.30b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.56 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.24 = EBIT TTM 3.98b / Avg Total Assets 16.73b |
| (D) -2.13 = Book Value of Equity -28.55b / Total Liabilities 13.39b |
| Total Rating: -6.67 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.29
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.40% |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.68% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.39 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.60 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 46.69)% |
| 7. RoE 61.57% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 33.98% |
| 9. EPS Trend 59.31% |
What is the price of UMG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.72%, over one month by -4.53%, over three months by -10.64% and over the past year by -5.31%.
Is UMG a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the UMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 29.4 | 37.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.7 | -3.7% |
UMG Fundamental Data Overview November 27, 2025
Market Cap EUR = 42.12b (42.12b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 15.7518
P/E Forward = 19.1571
P/S = 3.322
P/B = 8.2124
P/EG = 2.7386
Beta = 0.819
Revenue TTM = 14.99b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.98b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.59b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.18b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.05b EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.90b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 2.73b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 43.53b EUR (42.12b + Debt 1.90b - CCE 493.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 28.02 (Ebit TTM 3.98b / Interest Expense TTM 142.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.40% (FCF TTM 2.35b / Enterprise Value 43.53b)
FCF Margin = 15.68% (FCF TTM 2.35b / Revenue TTM 14.99b)
Net Margin = 17.83% (Net Income TTM 2.67b / Revenue TTM 14.99b)
Gross Margin = 41.46% ((Revenue TTM 14.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.06% (prev 42.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.38 (Enterprise Value 43.53b / Total Assets 18.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.11% (Interest Expense 78.0m / Debt 1.90b)
Taxrate = 27.13% (433.0m / 1.60b)
NOPAT = 2.90b (EBIT 3.98b * (1 - 27.13%))
Current Ratio = 0.63 (Total Current Assets 4.54b / Total Current Liabilities 7.17b)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.60 (Net Debt 2.73b / EBITDA 4.59b)
Debt / FCF = 1.16 (Net Debt 2.73b / FCF TTM 2.35b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.60% (Net Income 2.67b / Total Assets 18.30b)
RoE = 61.57% (Net Income TTM 2.67b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.34b)
RoCE = 61.05% (EBIT 3.98b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.34b + L.T.Debt 2.18b))
RoIC = 52.79% (NOPAT 2.90b / Invested Capital 5.49b)
WACC = 6.10% (E(42.12b)/V(44.02b) * Re(6.24%) + D(1.90b)/V(44.02b) * Rd(4.11%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 6.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.15%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈2.38b ; Y1≈2.94b ; Y5≈5.02b
Fair Price DCF = 46.53 (DCF Value 85.33b / Shares Outstanding 1.83b; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 59.31 | EPS CAGR: 59.07% | SUE: 2.75 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 33.98 | Revenue CAGR: 39.53% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.10 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+11.4% | Growth Revenue=+6.6%