UMG Stock Analysis: Universal Music | AS
Entertainment | AS, Netherlands | Market Cap: 25.535m EUR | 12M Return: -42.3% | NL0015000IY2 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 38.4M
EPS Trend: 28.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 89.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Universal Music Group N.V. is a global music company operating through three core segments: Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other. Its Recorded Music segment focuses on artist development, distribution, and licensing across multiple formats and platforms, while also extending into live events, sponsorship, and film/TV operations. The Music Publishing segment manages copyrights for compositions used in recordings, public performances, films, and advertisements, and the Merchandising & Other segment produces branded artist products and offers brand rights management through retail, touring, and online channels. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.
UMG is one of the Big Three major record labels, a group of multinational music conglomerates that collectively dominate the global recorded music market. Its business model is heavily reliant on intellectual property, generating revenue through both master recording rights (under Recorded Music) and composition copyrights (under Music Publishing), which are distinct streams of licensing income.
- Streaming subscription growth powers Recorded Music segment revenue expansion
- AI copyright regulation threatens publishing royalties and catalog valuations
- Touring and merchandising rebound boosts margins and brand partnerships
| Net Income: 323.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -27.05% < 20% (prev -21.63%; Δ -5.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 1.58b > Net Income 323.0m |
| Net Debt (5.63b) to EBITDA (2.53b): 2.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.61 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.83b) vs 12m ago -0.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.93% > 18% (prev 39.25%; Δ -1.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.90% > 50% (prev 66.60%; Δ 3.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.22 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.05b / Interest Expense TTM 249.0m) |
| A: -0.19 (Total Current Assets 5.35b - Total Current Liabilities 8.82b) / Total Assets 18.4b |
| B: -1.59 (Retained Earnings -29.2b / Total Assets 18.4b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 2.05b / Avg Total Assets 18.3b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 3.63b / Total Liabilities 14.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.41 = D |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 3.09b/2.50b, Revenue 12.8b/12.2b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 39.25% / 37.93%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.72) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 12.8b / 12.2b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 323.0m - CFO 1.58b) / TA 18.4b) |
| Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 05, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 14.26 with a total of 3,356,655 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.30%, over one month by -0.77%, over three months by -25.50% and over the past year by -42.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.80 (which is 3.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Universal Music has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 78.8889
P/E Forward = 12.6422
P/S = 1.9918
P/B = 7.2132
P/EG = 2.2996
Revenue TTM = 12.8b EUR
EBIT TTM = 2.05b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 2.53b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.30b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.90b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.12b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 561.0m
Net Debt = 5.63b EUR (calculated: Debt 6.12b - CCE 485.0m)
Enterprise Value = 31.2b EUR (25.5b + Debt 6.12b - CCE 485.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.22 (Ebit TTM 2.05b / Interest Expense TTM 249.0m)
EV/FCF = 20.86x (Enterprise Value 31.2b / FCF TTM 1.49b)
FCF Yield = 4.79% (FCF TTM 1.49b / Enterprise Value 31.2b)
FCF Margin = 11.65% (FCF TTM 1.49b / Revenue TTM 12.8b)
Net Margin = 2.52% (Net Income TTM 323.0m / Revenue TTM 12.8b)
Gross Margin = 37.93% ((Revenue TTM 12.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.42% (prev 38.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.70 (Enterprise Value 31.2b / Total Assets 18.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.07% (Interest Expense 249.0m / Debt 6.12b)
Taxrate = 31.95% (154.0m / 482.0m)
NOPAT = 1.39b (EBIT 2.05b * (1 - 31.95%))
Current Ratio = 0.61 (Total Current Assets 5.35b / Total Current Liabilities 8.82b)
Debt / Equity = 1.69 (Debt 6.12b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.63b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.23 (Net Debt 5.63b / EBITDA 2.53b)
Debt / FCF = 3.77 (Net Debt 5.63b / FCF TTM 1.49b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.76% (Net Income 323.0m / Total Assets 18.4b)
RoE = 7.35% (Net Income TTM 323.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.39b)
RoCE = 30.61% (EBIT 2.05b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.39b + L.T.Debt 2.30b))
RoIC = 12.70% (NOPAT 1.39b / Invested Capital 11.0b)
WACC = 5.05% (E(25.5b)/V(31.7b) * Re(5.60%) + D(6.12b)/V(31.7b) * Rd(4.07%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 5.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -28.90 | Cagr: 0.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.12% ; FCFF base≈1.55b ; Y1≈1.44b ; Y5≈1.30b
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.35 (EV 20.7b - Net Debt 5.63b = Equity 15.0b / Shares 1.80b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -9.01% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 28.30 | EPS CAGR: 7.65% | SUE: -2.55 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 89.88 | Revenue CAGR: 16.06% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.00 | Chg30d=-0.04% | Revisions=-81% | GrowthEPS=-3.0% | GrowthRev=+7.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=-71% | GrowthEPS=+9.5% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -77% (up=2, down=26)