(UMG) Universal Music - Overview
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Entertainment | Exchange: AS (Netherlands) | Market Cap: 38.092m EUR | Total Return: -24.3% in 12m
Recorded Music, Music Publishing, Merchandising, Brand Licensing
Total Rating 35
Safety 35
Buy Signal -0.20
Entertainment
Industry Rotation: -1.6
Industry Rotation: -1.6
Market Cap:
44.3B
Avg Turnover: 42.8M
Avg Turnover: 42.8M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility29.5%
VaR 5th Pctl4.48%
VaR vs Median-10.4%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Rel. Str. IBD20
Rel. Str. Peer Group20.3
Character TTM
Beta0.042
Beta Downside-0.076
Hurst Exponent0.529
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD45.40%
CAGR/Max DD0.08
CAGR/Mean DD0.30
EPS (Earnings per Share)
EPS CAGR: 7.65%
EPS Trend: 28.3%
EPS Trend: 28.3%
Last SUE: -2.55
Qual. Beats: -1
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue
Rev. CAGR: 12.77%
Rev. Trend: 91.9%
Rev. Trend: 91.9%
Last SUE: 0.08
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Altman Z'' -5.04 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Description: UMG Universal Music
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) is a Netherlands-based global music corporation operating through three primary segments: Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising. The company manages the full lifecycle of intellectual property, from artist and songwriter development to the distribution and licensing of musical compositions across digital platforms, live events, and film media.
The business model relies heavily on recurring royalty streams generated from music streaming services and copyright administration. In the global music industry, major labels benefit from high barriers to entry due to the extensive capital required to acquire and maintain vast catalogs of evergreen intellectual property.
For a detailed breakdown of the companys valuation metrics, consider exploring the data on ValueRay. This integrated approach allows UMG to monetize artist brands through diverse channels, including retail fashion, concert touring, and brand rights management.
- Streaming royalty rate increases and subscriber growth drive recorded music revenue
- Market share concentration of top-tier artists dictates annual streaming payout volumes
- Music publishing valuation escalates through catalog acquisitions and synchronization licensing deals
- Platform monetization shifts and social media licensing disputes impact digital royalties
- Global consumer discretionary spending levels influence physical sales and merchandising margins
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict)
7.5
| Net Income: 3.29b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -11.98% < 20% (prev -17.35%; Δ 5.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.24 > 3% & CFO 4.11b > Net Income 3.29b |
| Net Debt (3.37b) to EBITDA (6.10b): 0.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.83b) vs 12m ago -1.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.45% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 3.90k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 134.7% > 50% (prev 113.6%; Δ 21.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.04 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 6.10b / Interest Expense TTM 296.0m) |
Altman Z''
-5.04
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 4.58b - Total Current Liabilities 7.21b) / Total Assets 17.46b |
| B: -1.65 (Retained Earnings -28.89b / Total Assets 17.46b) |
| C: 0.33 (EBIT TTM 5.34b / Avg Total Assets 16.31b) |
| D: -0.82 (Book Value of Equity -10.55b / Total Liabilities 12.89b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -5.04 = D |
Beneish M
-2.89
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 2.61b/2.31b, Revenue 21.97b/17.23b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 39.45% / 42.19%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.70 / AQ_t-1 0.68) |
| SGI: 1.28 (Revenue 21.97b / 17.23b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 3.29b - CFO 4.11b) / TA 17.46b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of UMG shares?
As of May 21, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 20.21 with a total of 2,610,150 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.18%, over one month by +0.51%, over three months by +4.35% and over the past year by -24.32%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.18%, over one month by +0.51%, over three months by +4.35% and over the past year by -24.32%.
Is UMG a buy, sell or hold?
Universal Music has no consensus analysts rating.
What are the forecasts/targets for the UMG price?
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
Universal Music (UMG) - Fundamental Data Overview
as of 20 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 44.28b (38.09b EUR * 1.1625 EUR.USD)P/E Trailing = 25.0241
P/E Forward = 18.1488
P/S = 3.0456
P/B = 7.983
P/EG = 2.7488
Revenue TTM = 21.97b EUR
EBIT TTM = 5.34b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 6.10b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.30b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 630.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.41b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.37b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 41.42b EUR (38.09b + Debt 3.41b - CCE 82.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.04 (Ebit TTM 5.34b / Interest Expense TTM 296.0m)
EV/FCF = 10.87x (Enterprise Value 41.42b / FCF TTM 3.81b)
FCF Yield = 9.20% (FCF TTM 3.81b / Enterprise Value 41.42b)
FCF Margin = 17.34% (FCF TTM 3.81b / Revenue TTM 21.97b)
Net Margin = 14.98% (Net Income TTM 3.29b / Revenue TTM 21.97b)
Gross Margin = 39.45% ((Revenue TTM 21.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.30b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.41% (prev 39.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.37 (Enterprise Value 41.42b / Total Assets 17.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.11% (Interest Expense 140.0m / Debt 3.41b)
Taxrate = 26.06% (37.0m / 142.0m)
NOPAT = 3.95b (EBIT 5.34b * (1 - 26.06%))
Current Ratio = 0.63 (Total Current Assets 4.58b / Total Current Liabilities 7.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 3.41b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.55 (Net Debt 3.37b / EBITDA 6.10b)
Debt / FCF = 0.88 (Net Debt 3.37b / FCF TTM 3.81b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.18% (Net Income 3.29b / Total Assets 17.46b)
RoE = 71.26% (Net Income TTM 3.29b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.62b)
RoCE = 77.22% (EBIT 5.34b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.62b + L.T.Debt 2.30b))
RoIC = 68.11% (NOPAT 3.95b / Invested Capital 5.80b)
WACC = 5.88% (E(38.09b)/V(41.50b) * Re(6.13%) + D(3.41b)/V(41.50b) * Rd(4.11%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -4.49 | Cagr: 0.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 87.41% ; FCFF base≈3.12b ; Y1≈3.50b ; Y5≈4.69b
[DCF] Fair Price = 73.19 (EV 137.59b - Net Debt 3.37b = Equity 134.22b / Shares 1.83b; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.24% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 28.30 | EPS CAGR: 7.65% | SUE: -2.55 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 91.88 | Revenue CAGR: 12.77% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=+4.35% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=+4.35% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.05 | Chg30d=-0.94% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+2.3% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.14 | Chg30d=-2.86% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%