(UMG) Universal Music - Overview
Stock: Music, Publishing, Merchandise, Licensing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.98% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.28% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 26.98% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.28 |
| Alpha | -32.80 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.116 |
| Beta Downside | 0.227 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.47% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.07 |
Description: UMG Universal Music January 29, 2026
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) is a global music conglomerate organized into three core segments: Recorded Music, which signs, markets, and distributes artists and also runs live-event and media licensing activities; Music Publishing, which signs songwriters and administers composition copyrights for recordings, performances, and sync uses; and Merchandising & Other, which creates and sells artist-branded products and provides brand-rights services across retail, touring, and e-commerce channels. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.
Key recent metrics (FY 2025): revenue €11.6 bn, up 9 % YoY, driven by a 14 % increase in streaming royalties (now 63 % of total revenue) and a 7 % rise in publishing sync fees as advertisers shift spend toward music-driven content. UMG’s market share in global recorded-music streaming is ~31 %, making it the largest rights holder, while publishing revenues grew at a 5 % CAGR over the past three years, reflecting expanding demand for cinematic and gaming sync placements. The broader entertainment sector is benefitting from continued growth in subscription-based streaming (projected 12 % CAGR to 2028) and rising consumer spending on experiential music events post-pandemic.
For a deeper quantitative dive into UMG’s valuation drivers, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 4.10b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.64% < 20% (prev -17.74%; Δ 5.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 2.83b > Net Income 4.10b |
| Net Debt (3.24b) to EBITDA (5.84b): 0.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.85b) vs 12m ago -0.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.90% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 4048 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.7% > 50% (prev 111.1%; Δ 13.60% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 5.84b / Interest Expense TTM 220.0m) |
Altman Z'' -4.78
| A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 4.54b - Total Current Liabilities 7.17b) / Total Assets 18.30b |
| B: -1.56 (Retained Earnings -28.55b / Total Assets 18.30b) |
| C: 0.31 (EBIT TTM 5.11b / Avg Total Assets 16.73b) |
| D: -0.76 (Book Value of Equity -10.21b / Total Liabilities 13.39b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -4.78 = D |
Beneish M -2.84
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 2.50b/2.31b, Revenue 20.87b/16.85b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 40.90% / 41.58%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.72 / AQ_t-1 0.68) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 20.87b / 16.85b) |
| TATA: 0.07 (NI 4.10b - CFO 2.83b) / TA 18.30b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of UMG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.03%, over one month by -11.92%, over three months by -13.36% and over the past year by -25.74%.
Is UMG a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the UMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 29.4 | 49.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.9 | -9.1% |
UMG Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 15.7518
P/E Forward = 18.1488
P/S = 3.1084
P/B = 7.78
P/EG = 2.7386
Revenue TTM = 20.87b EUR
EBIT TTM = 5.11b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 5.84b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.18b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.13b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.73b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.24b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 45.33b EUR (42.12b + Debt 3.73b - CCE 525.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.22 (Ebit TTM 5.11b / Interest Expense TTM 220.0m)
EV/FCF = 18.32x (Enterprise Value 45.33b / FCF TTM 2.47b)
FCF Yield = 5.46% (FCF TTM 2.47b / Enterprise Value 45.33b)
FCF Margin = 11.85% (FCF TTM 2.47b / Revenue TTM 20.87b)
Net Margin = 19.67% (Net Income TTM 4.10b / Revenue TTM 20.87b)
Gross Margin = 40.90% ((Revenue TTM 20.87b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.45% (prev 39.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.48 (Enterprise Value 45.33b / Total Assets 18.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.09% (Interest Expense 78.0m / Debt 3.73b)
Taxrate = 26.18% (509.0m / 1.94b)
NOPAT = 3.77b (EBIT 5.11b * (1 - 26.18%))
Current Ratio = 0.63 (Total Current Assets 4.54b / Total Current Liabilities 7.17b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 3.73b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.55 (Net Debt 3.24b / EBITDA 5.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.31 (Net Debt 3.24b / FCF TTM 2.47b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 24.53% (Net Income 4.10b / Total Assets 18.30b)
RoE = 94.57% (Net Income TTM 4.10b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.34b)
RoCE = 78.36% (EBIT 5.11b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.34b + L.T.Debt 2.18b))
RoIC = 68.63% (NOPAT 3.77b / Invested Capital 5.49b)
WACC = 5.95% (E(42.12b)/V(45.86b) * Re(6.34%) + D(3.73b)/V(45.86b) * Rd(2.09%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.19%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.42% ; FCFF base≈2.41b ; Y1≈2.77b ; Y5≈3.87b
Fair Price DCF = 59.26 (EV 111.92b - Net Debt 3.24b = Equity 108.68b / Shares 1.83b; r=5.95% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 17.55% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 48.42 | EPS CAGR: 1.69% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 40.75 | Revenue CAGR: 12.11% | SUE: 1.46 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.10 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+11.4% | Growth Revenue=+6.6%