(TYA) Simplify Exchange Traded - Ratings and Ratios

The Simplify Risk Parity Treasury ETF (TYA) is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that aims to deliver returns that are on par with or exceed the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Index over a calendar quarter. This fund is designed for investors seeking exposure to long-term U.S. Treasury securities, albeit through a more complex investment strategy involving derivatives.

TYA achieves its investment objective by primarily investing in futures contracts, call and put options on U.S. Treasury futures, and directly in U.S. government securities such as Treasury bills, notes, and bonds, or in fixed-income ETFs that focus on U.S. Treasuries. This approach allows the fund to gain significant exposure to the long end of the yield curve, potentially benefiting from movements in interest rates.

Given its investment strategy, TYA is likely to be highly sensitive to changes in long-term interest rates and overall market volatility. The funds use of derivatives not only amplifies its potential returns but also its potential risks, making it a product that requires careful consideration and monitoring.

Analyzing the , we see that TYAs last price is $12.78, which is below its short-term (SMA20 at $13.16) and long-term moving averages (SMA50 at $13.10, SMA200 at $13.02). This indicates a bearish trend in the short to long term. The Average True Range (ATR) of 0.24 or 1.92% suggests moderate volatility. The fund is currently trading below its 52-week high of $14.39 but above its 52-week low of $11.64, indicating some resilience.

Considering the , TYA has Assets Under Management (AUM) of $152.55 million, which is relatively modest. This size can be both a blessing and a curse; it allows for more nimble management but may also limit the funds ability to absorb large inflows or outflows without impacting its net asset value.

Forecasting TYAs performance involves analyzing both its technical and fundamental data. Given the current bearish trend indicated by its price relative to its moving averages, and assuming that interest rates continue to be a significant driver of its performance, we can anticipate that TYA might continue to face challenges if long-term interest rates rise. However, if rates stabilize or decline, TYA could potentially recover or even outperform. With an AUM of $152.55 million, the fund has a reasonable size to be considered viable, but its performance will heavily depend on the fund managers ability to navigate the derivatives market effectively.

Based on the current technical indicators and assuming a scenario where long-term interest rates stabilize or slightly decrease, we could forecast a potential recovery for TYA, with a possible target price near its SMA50 or SMA200 levels in the short to medium term. However, this forecast is contingent upon the broader market conditions and the funds management strategy.