(BAVA) Bavarian Nordic - CO

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology | Exchange: CO (Denmark) | Market Cap: 13.720m DKK | Total Return: 1.9% in 12m

Smallpox Vaccines, Rabies Vaccines, Encephalitis Vaccines, Travel Vaccines
Total Rating 43
Safety 89
Buy Signal -0.82
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +8.0
Market Cap: 2.13B
Avg Turnover: 32.6M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility34.2%
VaR 5th Pctl5.04%
VaR vs Median-14.6%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.05
Rel. Str. IBD18.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group11.3
Character TTM
Beta0.285
Beta Downside-0.060
Hurst Exponent0.550
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD50.56%
CAGR/Max DD-0.08
CAGR/Mean DD-0.15
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BAVA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -2.4, "2021-09": -1.3, "2021-12": -1.6, "2022-03": -3.9, "2022-06": -3.4, "2022-09": 0.2, "2022-12": 2.2, "2023-03": 5.1, "2023-06": 7.1, "2023-09": 2.8, "2023-12": 11.7, "2024-03": -1.5, "2024-06": 3.3, "2024-09": 0.9, "2024-12": 9.9, "2025-03": 2.8104, "2025-06": 4.6568, "2025-09": 13.9625, "2025-12": -3.3, "2026-03": 0.2198,
EPS CAGR: 2.52%
EPS Trend: 8.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of BAVA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 369.999, 2021-09: 448.656, 2021-12: 543.967, 2022-03: 320.056, 2022-06: 536.699, 2022-09: 1003.565, 2022-12: 1290.473, 2023-03: 1252.053, 2023-06: 1986.627, 2023-09: 1376.4, 2023-12: 2449.456, 2024-03: 831.472, 2024-06: 1427.497, 2024-09: 1363.361, 2024-12: 2093.876, 2025-03: 1346.59, 2025-06: 1651.503, 2025-09: 1794.91, 2025-12: 1413.125, 2026-03: 1058.643,
Rev. CAGR: 1.23%
Rev. Trend: 15.0%
Last SUE: -0.22
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Choppy Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: BAVA Bavarian Nordic

Bavarian Nordic A/S is a Danish biotechnology company founded in 1992 and headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark, that develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines for infectious diseases. Its marketed portfolio spans smallpox and monkeypox (JYNNEOS/IMVANEX/IMVAMUNE), rabies (Rabipur/RabAvert), tick-borne encephalitis (Encepur), cholera (Vaxchora), and typhoid (Vivotif/Typhoral). The company is also advancing MVA-BN WEV, currently in a phase 2 trial for encephalitis viruses, and distributes its products across roughly 17 countries in the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

The company operates within the global vaccine industry, a high-barrier segment of biotechnology characterized by lengthy R&D cycles, stringent regulatory approval pathways, and dependence on a limited number of approved products driving the bulk of revenue. Bavarian Nordics pipeline is built around its proprietary MVA-BN (Modified Vaccinia Ankara) vaccine platform, a non-replicating viral vector technology that underpins both its approved products and clinical-stage candidates.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • WHO mpox emergency declaration drives JYNNEOS vaccine demand
  • US BioShield contracts replenish smallpox vaccine stockpiles
  • Acquired Rabipur and Encepur portfolio expands travel vaccine revenue
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 1.17b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 16.55 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 85.25% < 20% (prev 52.49%; Δ 32.76% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 2.36b > Net Income 1.17b
Net Debt (-2.03b) to EBITDA (2.25b): -0.90 < 3
Current Ratio: 6.47 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (77.1m) vs 12m ago -4.79% < -2%
Gross Margin: 47.40% > 18% (prev 51.90%; Δ -4.50% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 42.80% > 50% (prev 45.98%; Δ -3.18% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 130.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 11.7m)
Altman Z'' 10.00
A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 5.97b - Total Current Liabilities 922.4m) / Total Assets 14.1b
B: 0.82 (Retained Earnings 11.6b / Total Assets 14.1b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.52b / Avg Total Assets 13.8b)
D: 8.97 (Book Value of Equity 12.7b / Total Liabilities 1.41b)
Altman-Z'' = 15.20 = AAA
Beneish M -3.17
DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 936.4m/1.17b, Revenue 5.92b/6.23b)
GMI: 1.10 (GM 51.90% / 47.40%)
AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.46)
SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 5.92b / 6.23b)
TATA: -0.08 (NI 1.17b - CFO 2.36b) / TA 14.1b)
Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of BAVA shares?

As of June 20, 2026, the stock is trading at DKK 179.40 with a total of 159,498 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.02%, over one month by -7.33%, over three months by -3.68% and over the past year by +1.90%.

Is BAVA a buy, sell or hold?

Bavarian Nordic has no consensus analysts rating.

Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 17 June 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.13b (13.7b DKK * 0.1551 DKK.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.9007
P/E Forward = 4.99
P/S = 2.3039
P/B = 1.0988
P/EG = 1.8659
Revenue TTM = 5.92b DKK
EBIT TTM = 1.52b DKK
EBITDA TTM = 2.25b DKK
Long Term Debt = 10.3m DKK (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.5m DKK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 266.1m DKK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 126.8m
Net Debt = -2.03b DKK (calculated: Debt 266.1m - CCE 2.29b)
Enterprise Value = 11.7b DKK (13.7b + Debt 266.1m - CCE 2.29b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 130.0 (Ebit TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 11.7m)
EV/FCF = 8.50x (Enterprise Value 11.7b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
FCF Yield = 11.76% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Enterprise Value 11.7b)
FCF Margin = 23.25% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 5.92b)
Net Margin = 19.83% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Revenue TTM 5.92b)
Gross Margin = 47.40% ((Revenue TTM 5.92b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.87% (prev 37.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 11.7b / Total Assets 14.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.40% (Interest Expense 11.7m / Debt 266.1m)
Taxrate = 26.41% (421.2m / 1.59b)
NOPAT = 1.12b (EBIT 1.52b * (1 - 26.41%))
Current Ratio = 6.47 (Total Current Assets 5.97b / Total Current Liabilities 922.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 266.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.90 (Net Debt -2.03b / EBITDA 2.25b)
Debt / FCF = -1.47 (Net Debt -2.03b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.49% (Net Income 1.17b / Total Assets 14.1b)
RoE = 9.25% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.7b)
RoCE = 11.98% (EBIT 1.52b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.7b + L.T.Debt 10.3m))
RoIC = 8.63% (NOPAT 1.12b / Invested Capital 13.0b)
WACC = 6.91% (E(13.7b)/V(14.0b) * Re(6.98%) + D(266.1m)/V(14.0b) * Rd(4.40%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 15.56 | Cagr: 0.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.38b ; Y1≈1.38b ; Y5≈1.46b
[DCF] Fair Price = 324.6 (EV 22.8b - Net Debt -2.03b = Equity 24.8b / Shares 76.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 8.68 | EPS CAGR: 2.52% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.04 | Revenue CAGR: 1.23% | SUE: -0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=4.50 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.30 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.49 | Chg30d=+17.38% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=-40.4% | GrowthRev=-9.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.67 | Chg30d=-2.09% | Revisions=-43% | GrowthEPS=+1.8% | GrowthRev=-0.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +43%