BAVA Stock Analysis: Bavarian Nordic | CO
Biotechnology | CO, Denmark | Market Cap: 15.847m DKK | 12M Return: -12.2% | DK0015998017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 23.2M
EPS Trend: 1.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 15.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Bavarian Nordic A/S is a Danish biotechnology company founded in 1992 and headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark, that develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines for infectious diseases. Its marketed portfolio spans smallpox and monkeypox (JYNNEOS/IMVANEX/IMVAMUNE), rabies (Rabipur/RabAvert), tick-borne encephalitis (Encepur), cholera (Vaxchora), and typhoid (Vivotif/Typhoral). The company is also advancing MVA-BN WEV, currently in a phase 2 trial for encephalitis viruses, and distributes its products across roughly 17 countries in the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific.
The company operates within the global vaccine industry, a high-barrier segment of biotechnology characterized by lengthy R&D cycles, stringent regulatory approval pathways, and dependence on a limited number of approved products driving the bulk of revenue. Bavarian Nordics pipeline is built around its proprietary MVA-BN (Modified Vaccinia Ankara) vaccine platform, a non-replicating viral vector technology that underpins both its approved products and clinical-stage candidates.
- WHO mpox emergency declaration drives JYNNEOS vaccine demand
- US BioShield contracts replenish smallpox vaccine stockpiles
- Acquired Rabipur and Encepur portfolio expands travel vaccine revenue
| Net Income: 1.17b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 16.55 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 85.25% < 20% (prev 52.49%; Δ 32.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 2.36b > Net Income 1.17b |
| Net Debt (-2.03b) to EBITDA (2.25b): -0.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 6.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (77.1m) vs 12m ago -4.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.40% > 18% (prev 51.90%; Δ -4.50% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 42.80% > 50% (prev 45.98%; Δ -3.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 130.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 11.7m) |
| A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 5.97b - Total Current Liabilities 922.4m) / Total Assets 14.1b |
| B: 0.82 (Retained Earnings 11.6b / Total Assets 14.1b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.52b / Avg Total Assets 13.8b) |
| D: 8.97 (Book Value of Equity 12.7b / Total Liabilities 1.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 15.20 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 890.7m/1.17b, Revenue 5.92b/6.23b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 51.90% / 47.40%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.46) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 5.92b / 6.23b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 1.17b - CFO 2.36b) / TA 14.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 22, 2026, the stock is trading at DKK 209.40 with a total of 1,381,370 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.64%, over one month by +15.69%, over three months by +6.40% and over the past year by -12.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 204.90 (which is 2.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Bavarian Nordic has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 13.8767
P/E Forward = 4.99
P/S = 2.661
P/B = 1.1452
P/EG = 1.8659
Revenue TTM = 5.92b DKK
EBIT TTM = 1.52b DKK
EBITDA TTM = 2.25b DKK
Long Term Debt = 10.3m DKK (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 45.8m DKK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 266.1m DKK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 126.8m
Net Debt = -2.03b DKK (calculated: Debt 266.1m - CCE 2.29b)
Enterprise Value = 13.8b DKK (15.8b + Debt 266.1m - CCE 2.29b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 130.0 (Ebit TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 11.7m)
EV/FCF = 10.05x (Enterprise Value 13.8b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
FCF Yield = 9.95% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Enterprise Value 13.8b)
FCF Margin = 23.25% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 5.92b)
Net Margin = 19.83% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Revenue TTM 5.92b)
Gross Margin = 47.40% ((Revenue TTM 5.92b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.87% (prev 37.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 13.8b / Total Assets 14.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.40% (Interest Expense 11.7m / Debt 266.1m)
Taxrate = 26.41% (421.2m / 1.59b)
NOPAT = 1.12b (EBIT 1.52b * (1 - 26.41%))
Current Ratio = 6.47 (Total Current Assets 5.97b / Total Current Liabilities 922.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 266.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.90 (Net Debt -2.03b / EBITDA 2.25b)
Debt / FCF = -1.47 (Net Debt -2.03b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.49% (Net Income 1.17b / Total Assets 14.1b)
RoE = 9.25% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.7b)
RoCE = 11.98% (EBIT 1.52b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.7b + L.T.Debt 10.3m))
RoIC = 8.66% (NOPAT 1.12b / Invested Capital 12.9b)
WACC = 6.22% (E(15.8b)/V(16.1b) * Re(6.27%) + D(266.1m)/V(16.1b) * Rd(4.40%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 34.86 | Cagr: 0.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.38b ; Y1≈1.38b ; Y5≈1.46b
[DCF] Fair Price = 327.5 (EV 22.8b - Net Debt -2.03b = Equity 24.8b / Shares 75.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 1.10 | EPS CAGR: 0.31% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.04 | Revenue CAGR: 1.23% | SUE: -0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.30 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.10 | Chg30d=-4.94% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-48.3% | GrowthRev=-8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.20 | Chg30d=+2.13% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+12.1% | GrowthRev=-1.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)