BAVA Stock Analysis: Bavarian Nordic | CO
Biotechnology | CO, Denmark | Market Cap: 18.122m DKK | 12M Return: 2.7% | DK0015998017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 38.2M
EPS Trend: 1.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -9.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Bavarian Nordic A/S is a Denmark-based biotechnology company that develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines for infectious diseases. Its marketed portfolio includes non-replicating smallpox/monkeypox vaccines (IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, JYNNEOS), a rabies vaccine (Rabipur/RabAvert), a tick-borne encephalitis vaccine (Encepur), and oral vaccines for cholera (Vaxchora) and typhoid fever (Vivotif/Typhoral). The company also has a phase 2 clinical candidate, MVA-BN WEV, targeting encephalitis viruses, and operates across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and other international markets. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark, Bavarian Nordic is classified as a mid-cap biotech within the healthcare sector.
The companys business model centers on proprietary vaccine technology platforms-particularly its MVA-BN (modified vaccinia Ankara) viral vector platform-which underpins multiple products and pipeline candidates. As a commercial-stage biotech, Bavarian Nordic combines revenue from established vaccine franchises with longer-term R&D investment, a structure typical of the biotechnology sub-industry where product approvals, government stockpiling contracts, and pipeline progression are key value drivers.
- JYNNEOS vaccine revenue declines as mpox emergency orders wind down
- Rabipur/RabAvert rabies franchise faces growing competitive pressure in travel markets
- Phase 2 MVA-BN WEV encephalitis trial readout drives pipeline valuation catalyst
| Net Income: 1.54b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 89.97% < 20% (prev 59.90%; Δ 30.07% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 1.44b > Net Income 1.54b |
| Net Debt (-2.11b) to EBITDA (2.62b): -0.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 6.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (76.0m) vs 12m ago -5.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 49.53% > 18% (prev 53.10%; Δ -3.57% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.99% > 50% (prev 46.42%; Δ -2.43% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 137.9 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m) |
| A: 0.38 (Total Current Assets 6.69b - Total Current Liabilities 1.02b) / Total Assets 14.7b |
| B: 0.83 (Retained Earnings 12.2b / Total Assets 14.7b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.89b / Avg Total Assets 14.3b) |
| D: 8.78 (Book Value of Equity 13.2b / Total Liabilities 1.51b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 15.32 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.77 (Receivables 1.57b/907.0m, Revenue 6.30b/6.46b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 53.10% / 49.53%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.40 / AQ_t-1 0.45) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 6.30b / 6.46b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 1.54b - CFO 1.44b) / TA 14.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.40 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at DKK 235.20 with a total of 245,418 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.38%, over one month by +15.86%, over three months by +29.30% and over the past year by +2.71%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 228.30 (which is 2.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Bavarian Nordic has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 12.3692
P/E Forward = 4.99
P/S = 2.8592
P/B = 1.2659
P/EG = 1.8659
Revenue TTM = 6.30b DKK
EBIT TTM = 1.89b DKK
EBITDA TTM = 2.62b DKK
Long Term Debt = 9.81m DKK (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 45.9m DKK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 250.7m DKK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 119.4m
Net Debt = -2.11b DKK (calculated: Debt 250.7m - CCE 2.36b)
Enterprise Value = 16.0b DKK (18.1b + Debt 250.7m - CCE 2.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 137.9 (Ebit TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m)
EV/FCF = 12.93x (Enterprise Value 16.0b / FCF TTM 1.24b)
FCF Yield = 7.73% (FCF TTM 1.24b / Enterprise Value 16.0b)
FCF Margin = 19.66% (FCF TTM 1.24b / Revenue TTM 6.30b)
Net Margin = 24.50% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 6.30b)
Gross Margin = 49.53% ((Revenue TTM 6.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.45% (prev 44.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 16.0b / Total Assets 14.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.47% (Interest Expense 13.7m / Debt 250.7m)
Taxrate = 22.13% (438.4m / 1.98b)
NOPAT = 1.47b (EBIT 1.89b * (1 - 22.13%))
Current Ratio = 6.53 (Total Current Assets 6.69b / Total Current Liabilities 1.02b)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 250.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 13.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.80 (Net Debt -2.11b / EBITDA 2.62b)
Debt / FCF = -1.70 (Net Debt -2.11b / FCF TTM 1.24b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.78% (Net Income 1.54b / Total Assets 14.7b)
RoE = 11.88% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.0b)
RoCE = 14.56% (EBIT 1.89b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.0b + L.T.Debt 9.81m))
RoIC = 10.97% (NOPAT 1.47b / Invested Capital 13.4b)
WACC = 6.46% (E(18.1b)/V(18.4b) * Re(6.49%) + D(250.7m)/V(18.4b) * Rd(5.47%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -15.25 | Cagr: -0.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.24b ; Y1≈1.24b ; Y5≈1.32b
[DCF] Fair Price = 300.7 (EV 20.5b - Net Debt -2.11b = Equity 22.6b / Shares 75.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 1.10 | EPS CAGR: 0.31% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -9.38 | Revenue CAGR: -0.66% | SUE: 1.03 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.30 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.23 | Chg30d=+2.39% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-24.8% | GrowthRev=-4.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.87 | Chg30d=+3.33% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=-17.9% | GrowthRev=-5.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +44% (up=5, down=1)