KESKOB Stock Analysis: Kesko | HE
Grocery Stores | HE, Finland | Market Cap: 9.162m EUR | 12M Return: 33.7% | FI0009000202 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 11.6M
EPS Trend: -84.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Kesko Oyj is a Finnish retail conglomerate founded in 1940 and headquartered in Helsinki. It operates across eight countries in the Nordic and Baltic region (Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland) through three main divisions: Grocery Trade, Building and Technical Trade, and Car Trade. The grocery segment runs wholesale, B2B, foodservice, and online operations under the K-retailer umbrella, with store formats including K-Citymarket, K-Supermarket, K-Market, and Kespro. The building and technical trade division covers home improvement and HEPAC/electrical products through K-Rauta, K-Bygg, Byggmakker, Davidsen, and Onninen. The car trade division imports, markets, and retails Volkswagen Group brands (Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, CUPRA, Bentley, Porsche) and VW commercial vehicles under K-Auto, while also operating used car sales, leasing, servicing, an EV charging network (K-Lataus), and Intersport sports retail.
The Finnish grocery retail sector is among the most concentrated in Europe, with two domestic chains (Kesko and S Group) historically holding the majority of market share alongside Lidl. Keskos multi-division structure combining food retail with building materials and automotive retail is relatively unusual and reflects a diversified trading-house model that provides some insulation from volatility in any single consumer segment.
- Grocery trade margin pressure from food inflation easing
- Building and technical trade demand softens with Nordic housing slowdown
- Car trade profitability exposed to EV transition costs
| Net Income: 418.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.71% < 20% (prev -3.21%; Δ 0.51% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 1.02b > Net Income 418.0m |
| Net Debt (5.85b) to EBITDA (1.26b): 4.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.90 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (398.2m) vs 12m ago 0.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.63% > 18% (prev 14.54%; Δ -8.91% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 139.2% > 50% (prev 135.5%; Δ 3.73% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.58 > 6 (EBIT TTM 654.4m / Interest Expense TTM 143.0m) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 3.24b - Total Current Liabilities 3.58b) / Total Assets 9.57b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 2.07b / Total Assets 9.57b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 654.4m / Avg Total Assets 9.24b) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 2.65b / Total Liabilities 6.89b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.35 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 1.59b/1.47b, Revenue 12.9b/12.1b) |
| GMI: 2.58 (GM 14.54% / 5.63%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 12.9b / 12.1b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 418.0m - CFO 1.02b) / TA 9.57b) |
| Beneish M = -1.57 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of October 14, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 23.38 with a total of 461,635 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.81%, over one month by +7.35%, over three months by +20.39% and over the past year by +33.72%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.90 (which is 2.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Kesko has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 21.9048
P/E Forward = 12.285
P/S = 0.7121
P/B = 3.4029
P/EG = 6.2679
Revenue TTM = 12.9b EUR
EBIT TTM = 654.4m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.26b EUR
Long Term Debt = 1.24b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 868.8m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.23b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.23b
Net Debt = 5.85b EUR (calculated: Debt 6.23b - CCE 376.3m)
Enterprise Value = 15.0b EUR (9.16b + Debt 6.23b - CCE 376.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.58 (Ebit TTM 654.4m / Interest Expense TTM 143.0m)
EV/FCF = 28.11x (Enterprise Value 15.0b / FCF TTM 534.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.56% (FCF TTM 534.0m / Enterprise Value 15.0b)
FCF Margin = 4.15% (FCF TTM 534.0m / Revenue TTM 12.9b)
Net Margin = 3.25% (Net Income TTM 418.0m / Revenue TTM 12.9b)
Gross Margin = 5.63% ((Revenue TTM 12.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 2.89% (prev 1.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.57 (Enterprise Value 15.0b / Total Assets 9.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.30% (Interest Expense 143.0m / Debt 6.23b)
Taxrate = 20.69% (109.4m / 528.8m)
NOPAT = 519.0m (EBIT 654.4m * (1 - 20.69%))
Current Ratio = 0.90 (Total Current Assets 3.24b / Total Current Liabilities 3.58b)
Debt / Equity = 2.35 (Debt 6.23b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.65b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.64 (Net Debt 5.85b / EBITDA 1.26b)
Debt / FCF = 10.96 (Net Debt 5.85b / FCF TTM 534.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.66b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.52% (Net Income 418.0m / Total Assets 9.57b)
RoE = 15.71% (Net Income TTM 418.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.66b)
RoCE = 16.77% (EBIT 654.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.66b + L.T.Debt 1.24b))
RoIC = 8.02% (NOPAT 519.0m / Invested Capital 6.47b)
WACC = 3.81% (E(9.16b)/V(15.4b) * Re(5.16%) + D(6.23b)/V(15.4b) * Rd(2.30%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -45.50 | Cagr: -0.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈634.0m ; Y1≈556.0m ; Y5≈449.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.01 (EV 7.21b - Net Debt 5.85b = Equity 1.36b / Shares 271.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -84.87 | EPS CAGR: -7.15% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.73 | Revenue CAGR: 3.29% | SUE: 1.24 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.18 | Chg30d=+0.15% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+9.8% | GrowthRev=+3.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.8% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=2, down=0)