(CAF) Construcciones y Auxiliar - Overview
Stock: Trains, Buses, Signaling, Maintenance, Components
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.91% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.89 |
| Alpha | 65.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.184 |
| Beta Downside | 0.242 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 17.77% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.04 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: CAF Construcciones y Auxiliar February 18, 2026
Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (CAF) is a Spanish-based manufacturer of rail and bus transport solutions, operating across Europe, the United States, Asia-Pacific and other international markets. Its product portfolio spans complete rolling-stock sets, signaling and digital mobility systems, simulators, and a suite of after-sales services such as maintenance, engineering, leasing and marketing. The firm, originally incorporated in 1917 as Compañía Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, adopted its current name in 1971 and remains headquartered in Beasain, Spain.
In FY 2024 CAF reported revenue of roughly €2.5 billion, a 7 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by new contracts in the United States (notably the Amtrak A-line refurbishment) and a resurgence of orders in the Asia-Pacific region. The order backlog stood at about €5 billion, representing roughly 2.0 years of sales coverage, while adjusted EBIT margin expanded to 5.8 % and net-debt-to-EBITDA fell to 2.1 ×, indicating modest improvement in financial leverage. However, the company’s exposure to volatile commodity prices and the ongoing shortage of skilled rail-industry labor introduces upside risk to cost forecasts.
Key sector drivers include the EU Green Deal’s target of shifting 30 % of passenger trips to rail by 2030, which underpins a multi-year pipeline of infrastructure funding across member states, and the U.S. bipartisan infrastructure law that earmarks $110 billion for rail modernization. Conversely, competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturers and potential delays in public-sector procurement cycles could compress margins. Given these dynamics, a disciplined, data-driven valuation is essential.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of CAF’s valuation assumptions, you may find it useful to explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 132.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.88% < 20% (prev 3.67%; Δ 8.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 191.6m > Net Income 132.9m |
| Net Debt (361.6m) to EBITDA (348.3m): 1.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (34.2m) vs 12m ago 0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.90% > 18% (prev 0.23%; Δ 2167 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 96.68% > 50% (prev 94.41%; Δ 2.27% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.15 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 348.3m / Interest Expense TTM 75.6m) |
Altman Z'' 1.88
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 4.04b - Total Current Liabilities 3.43b) / Total Assets 5.46b |
| B: 0.20 (Retained Earnings 1.06b / Total Assets 5.46b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 238.1m / Avg Total Assets 5.32b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 893.5m / Total Liabilities 4.54b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.88 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.98
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 2.53b/2.24b, Revenue 5.14b/4.89b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 21.90% / 22.57%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 5.14b / 4.89b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 132.9m - CFO 191.6m) / TA 5.46b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of CAF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.68%, over one month by +6.71%, over three months by +13.96% and over the past year by +72.68%.
Is CAF a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the CAF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 58.2 | -3.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
CAF Fundamental Data Overview February 18, 2026
P/E Trailing = 16.5289
P/E Forward = 8.7032
P/S = 0.46
P/B = 2.2661
Revenue TTM = 5.14b EUR
EBIT TTM = 238.1m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 348.3m EUR
Long Term Debt = 676.9m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 150.2m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 887.8m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 361.6m EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.38b EUR (2.06b + Debt 887.8m - CCE 562.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.15 (Ebit TTM 238.1m / Interest Expense TTM 75.6m)
EV/FCF = 22.58x (Enterprise Value 2.38b / FCF TTM 105.4m)
FCF Yield = 4.43% (FCF TTM 105.4m / Enterprise Value 2.38b)
FCF Margin = 2.05% (FCF TTM 105.4m / Revenue TTM 5.14b)
Net Margin = 2.59% (Net Income TTM 132.9m / Revenue TTM 5.14b)
Gross Margin = 21.90% ((Revenue TTM 5.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.02b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -6.74% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 2.38b / Total Assets 5.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.81% (Interest Expense 24.9m / Debt 887.8m)
Taxrate = 24.07% (12.2m / 50.7m)
NOPAT = 180.8m (EBIT 238.1m * (1 - 24.07%))
Current Ratio = 1.18 (Total Current Assets 4.04b / Total Current Liabilities 3.43b)
Debt / Equity = 0.98 (Debt 887.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 903.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.04 (Net Debt 361.6m / EBITDA 348.3m)
Debt / FCF = 3.43 (Net Debt 361.6m / FCF TTM 105.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 887.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.50% (Net Income 132.9m / Total Assets 5.46b)
RoE = 14.97% (Net Income TTM 132.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 887.7m)
RoCE = 15.22% (EBIT 238.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 887.7m + L.T.Debt 676.9m))
RoIC = 10.60% (NOPAT 180.8m / Invested Capital 1.71b)
WACC = 5.24% (E(2.06b)/V(2.94b) * Re(6.59%) + D(887.8m)/V(2.94b) * Rd(2.81%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈73.4m ; Y1≈90.6m ; Y5≈154.2m
Fair Price DCF = 120.6 (EV 4.49b - Net Debt 361.6m = Equity 4.13b / Shares 34.3m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
Revenue Correlation: 53.76 | Revenue CAGR: 15.30% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.09 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+15.8% | Growth Revenue=+6.7%