TEF Stock Analysis: Telefonica | MC

Telecom Services | MC, Spain | Market Cap: 20.009m EUR | 12M Return: -17.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Mobile, Fixed Telephony, Broadband Internet, Cloud Computing
Total Rating 17
Safety 23
Buy Signal -0.87
Telecom Services
Industry Rotation: -2.6
Market Cap: 22.9B
Avg Turnover: 51.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility20.4%
VaR 5th Pctl3.55%
VaR vs Median5.54%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Rel. Str. IBD16.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group35
Character TTM
Beta-0.084
Beta Downside-0.044
Hurst Exponent0.493
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD31.46%
CAGR/Max DD0.09
CAGR/Mean DD0.33
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TEF over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.37, "2021-09": 0.12, "2021-12": 0.07, "2022-03": 0.12, "2022-06": 0.07, "2022-09": 0.07, "2022-12": 0.08, "2023-03": 0.09, "2023-06": 0.07, "2023-09": 0.08, "2023-12": 0.12, "2024-03": 0.08, "2024-06": 0.07, "2024-09": 0.11, "2024-12": -0.19, "2025-03": 0.08, "2025-06": -0.02, "2025-09": 0.05, "2025-12": -0.59, "2026-03": -0.09,
Last SUE: -0.91
Qual. Beats: -2
Revenue Revenue of TEF over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 9965, 2021-09: 9298, 2021-12: 9674, 2022-03: 9410, 2022-06: 10040, 2022-09: 10343, 2022-12: 10200, 2023-03: 10045, 2023-06: 10133, 2023-09: 10321, 2023-12: 10153, 2024-03: 10140, 2024-06: 10255, 2024-09: 10023, 2024-12: 10897, 2025-03: 9221, 2025-06: 8792, 2025-09: 9360, 2025-12: 9174, 2026-03: 8127,
Rev. CAGR: -4.32%
Rev. Trend: -80.5%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.4% 15
Feb +1.3% 27
Mar +0.5% 26
Apr +2.2% 60
May +1.6% 17
Jun -3.2% 22
Jul +0.9% 9
Aug -4.9% 62
Sep -1.7% 24
Oct -0.8% 23
Nov +2.2% 21
Dec -4.8% 69

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TEF Telefonica

Telefónica, S.A. is a major integrated telecommunications operator headquartered in Madrid, Spain, providing mobile, fixed-line, broadband, and digital services across Europe and Latin America. Founded in 1924 and publicly traded since 1987, the company operates under the Movistar brand and is listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange (MC) with the ticker TEF, falling within the Communication Services sector.

Its business spans consumer and enterprise offerings, including mobile voice and data, traditional fixed telephony (PSTN, ISDN), fibre-to-the-home broadband, voice over IP, and wholesale interconnection services for other operators. The company also supplies corporate clients with leased lines, VPNs, managed hosting, cloud, security, and IT outsourcing solutions, reflecting the convergence of telecom and enterprise IT services typical of large integrated carriers.

Beyond connectivity, Telefónica has expanded into digital products and platforms, including the Aura AI ecosystem, the Movistar Home smart device, video/TV services, and the Phoenix digital sales platform. As a large-cap integrated telecom operator with a market capitalization of roughly $24 billion USD, the company competes in a capital-intensive sector that requires sustained investment in network infrastructure (fibre, 5G) while transitioning toward higher-margin digital and data-driven services.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Argentina peso devaluation pressures reported revenue and margins
  • Spain fiber rollout expands ARPU amid intensifying price competition
  • Net debt reduction and suspended dividend reinforce balance sheet
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: -3.43b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.38 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -10.37% < 20% (prev -1.74%; Δ -8.63% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.79b > Net Income -3.43b
Net Debt (42.0b) to EBITDA (11.3b): 3.71 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (5.63b) vs 12m ago -0.20% < -2%
Gross Margin: 7.52% > 18% (prev 38.42%; Δ -30.90% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 37.61% > 50% (prev 40.80%; Δ -3.19% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.17b / Interest Expense TTM 1.98b)
Altman Z'' 0.70
A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 19.5b - Total Current Liabilities 23.1b) / Total Assets 89.5b
B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 16.4b / Total Assets 89.5b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 2.17b / Avg Total Assets 94.3b)
D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 14.5b / Total Liabilities 71.3b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.70 = B
Beneish M -0.13
DSRI: 0.11 (Receivables 1.00b/10.7b, Revenue 35.5b/40.4b)
GMI: 5.11 (GM 38.42% / 7.52%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.49)
SGI: 0.88 (Revenue 35.5b / 40.4b)
TATA: -0.15 (NI -3.43b - CFO 9.79b) / TA 89.5b)
Beneish M = -0.13 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of TEF shares?

As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 3.48 with a total of 7,113,088 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.06%, over one month by -7.32%, over three months by -6.62% and over the past year by -17.84%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.30 (which is 5.2% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).

Is TEF a buy, sell or hold?

Telefonica has no consensus analysts rating.

Telefonica (TEF) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 22.9b (20.0b EUR * 1.1431 EUR.USD)
P/E Forward = 11.5207
P/S = 0.5573
P/B = 1.3414
P/EG = 0.3783
Revenue TTM = 35.5b EUR
EBIT TTM = 2.17b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 11.3b EUR
Long Term Debt = 28.1b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 7.46b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 49.7b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.58b
Net Debt = 42.0b EUR (calculated: Debt 49.7b - CCE 7.70b)
Enterprise Value = 62.0b EUR (20.0b + Debt 49.7b - CCE 7.70b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.09 (Ebit TTM 2.17b / Interest Expense TTM 1.98b)
EV/FCF = 13.14x (Enterprise Value 62.0b / FCF TTM 4.72b)
FCF Yield = 7.61% (FCF TTM 4.72b / Enterprise Value 62.0b)
FCF Margin = 13.31% (FCF TTM 4.72b / Revenue TTM 35.5b)
Net Margin = -9.67% (Net Income TTM -3.43b / Revenue TTM 35.5b)
Gross Margin = 7.52% ((Revenue TTM 35.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 32.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.23% (prev -21.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 62.0b / Total Assets 89.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.99% (Interest Expense 1.98b / Debt 49.7b)
Taxrate = 29.44% (189.0m / 642.0m)
NOPAT = 1.53b (EBIT 2.17b * (1 - 29.44%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 19.5b / Total Current Liabilities 23.1b)
Debt / Equity = 3.42 (Debt 49.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.71 (Net Debt 42.0b / EBITDA 11.3b)
Debt / FCF = 8.89 (Net Debt 42.0b / FCF TTM 4.72b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.64% (Net Income -3.43b / Total Assets 89.5b)
RoE = -21.53% (Net Income TTM -3.43b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.9b)
RoCE = 4.92% (EBIT 2.17b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.9b + L.T.Debt 28.1b))
RoIC = 2.12% (NOPAT 1.53b / Invested Capital 72.1b)
WACC = 3.64% (E(20.0b)/V(69.7b) * Re(5.69%) + D(49.7b)/V(69.7b) * Rd(3.99%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 5.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -43.53 | Cagr: -0.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.09% ; FCFF base≈4.77b ; Y1≈4.68b ; Y5≈4.75b
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.74 (EV 74.3b - Net Debt 42.0b = Equity 32.3b / Shares 5.64b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -2.54% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.91 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: -80.51 | Revenue CAGR: -4.32% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-0.12% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+4.5% | GrowthRev=-4.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+6.62% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+14.0% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -12% (up=2, down=3)