TEF Stock Analysis: Telefonica | MC
Telecom Services | MC, Spain | Market Cap: 19.282m EUR | 12M Return: -15.1% | ES0178430E18 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 43.1M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -87.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Telefónica, S.A. (TEF) is a major Spanish-headquartered integrated telecommunications operator founded in 1924, listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange, and operating across Spain, Brazil, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Its business spans four core pillars: (1) residential digital services such as entertainment, home connectivity, and security; (2) enterprise and public-sector solutions including cloud, cybersecurity, IoT, AI, and professional services; (3) wholesale services to other operators, including fiber-to-the-home commercialization and network leasing; and (4) a growing ecosystem of adjacent offerings covering devices, health, insurance, video, solar energy, alarms, advertising, financial services, and education. The company also generates revenue from traffic, interconnection fees, network usage charges, and handset sales, alongside Pay TV and other value-added services.
The integrated telecommunication services industry is characterized by high fixed-cost network infrastructure (both fixed-line/fiber and mobile), significant capital expenditure requirements, and revenue streams that typically combine recurring subscription fees, usage-based charges, and interconnection/wholesale income. Major European operators like Telefónica generally compete on a combination of network coverage/quality, bundled service offerings, and ARPU growth, while increasingly diversifying into higher-margin digital and B2B services to offset pressure on traditional voice and legacy fixed-line revenues.
- Brazil and Spain revenue growth drives consolidated results
- German O2 margin expansion offsets UK competitive pressure
- Latam fiber and B2B digital services revenue accelerates
- Debt reduction and shareholder returns support capital allocation
| Net Income: -3.30b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.92 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.92% < 20% (prev -9.92%; Δ 3.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.30b > Net Income -3.30b |
| Net Debt (51.3b) to EBITDA (8.79b): 5.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.89 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (5.63b) vs 12m ago -0.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.29% > 18% (prev 20.89%; Δ -13.60% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.18% > 50% (prev 41.26%; Δ -3.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.72 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 2.04b) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 19.1b - Total Current Liabilities 21.5b) / Total Assets 88.6b |
| B: 0.17 (Retained Earnings 14.9b / Total Assets 88.6b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 1.47b / Avg Total Assets 91.5b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 7.12b / Total Liabilities 77.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.57 = B |
| DSRI: 1.24 (Receivables 9.21b/8.25b, Revenue 34.9b/38.9b) |
| GMI: 2.87 (GM 20.89% / 7.29%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 34.9b / 38.9b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -3.30b - CFO 9.30b) / TA 88.6b) |
| Beneish M = -1.22 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 3.41 with a total of 7,907,878 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.96%, over one month by -5.91%, over three months by -2.88% and over the past year by -15.07%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.30 (which is 3.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Telefonica has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 10.6045
P/S = 0.5321
P/B = 1.3009
P/EG = 0.3783
Revenue TTM = 34.9b EUR
EBIT TTM = 1.47b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 8.79b EUR
Long Term Debt = 28.1b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 6.20b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 57.2b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.92b
Net Debt = 51.3b EUR (calculated: Debt 57.2b - CCE 5.86b)
Enterprise Value = 70.6b EUR (19.3b + Debt 57.2b - CCE 5.86b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.72 (Ebit TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 2.04b)
EV/FCF = 16.76x (Enterprise Value 70.6b / FCF TTM 4.21b)
FCF Yield = 5.97% (FCF TTM 4.21b / Enterprise Value 70.6b)
FCF Margin = 12.06% (FCF TTM 4.21b / Revenue TTM 34.9b)
Net Margin = -9.46% (Net Income TTM -3.30b / Revenue TTM 34.9b)
Gross Margin = 7.29% ((Revenue TTM 34.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 32.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.98% (prev 10.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 70.6b / Total Assets 88.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.56% (Interest Expense 2.04b / Debt 57.2b)
Taxrate = 15.26% (29.0m / 190.0m)
NOPAT = 1.24b (EBIT 1.47b * (1 - 15.26%))
Current Ratio = 0.89 (Total Current Assets 19.1b / Total Current Liabilities 21.5b)
Debt / Equity = 8.02 (Debt 57.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.84 (Net Debt 51.3b / EBITDA 8.79b)
Debt / FCF = 12.18 (Net Debt 51.3b / FCF TTM 4.21b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.4b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.61% (Net Income -3.30b / Total Assets 88.6b)
RoE = -24.69% (Net Income TTM -3.30b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.4b)
RoCE = 3.53% (EBIT 1.47b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.4b + L.T.Debt 28.1b))
RoIC = 1.74% (NOPAT 1.24b / Invested Capital 71.5b)
WACC = 3.55% (E(19.3b)/V(76.4b) * Re(5.11%) + D(57.2b)/V(76.4b) * Rd(3.56%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 5.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -60.39 | Cagr: -0.04%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈4.67b ; Y1≈4.09b ; Y5≈3.31b
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.32 (EV 53.1b - Net Debt 51.3b = Equity 1.78b / Shares 5.63b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.50 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -87.21 | Revenue CAGR: -5.64% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=-8.25% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-0.91% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+2.1% | GrowthRev=-4.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+0.13% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+16.5% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +12% (up=3, down=2)