BMPS Stock Analysis: Banca Monte dei Paschi di | MI
Banks - Regional | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 34.194m EUR | 12M Return: 49.6% | IT0005218752 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 94.5M
EPS Trend: -65.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 83.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is an Italian diversified bank headquartered in Siena, operating across four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking. Founded in 1472, it is among the worlds oldest surviving banks, with roots in financing local agriculture and land management, and serves retail customers, SMEs, corporate clients, and large groups through savings and deposit accounts, mortgages, loans, insurance, asset management, factoring, leasing, and structured finance services both domestically and internationally.
As a member of Italys traditional banche popolari and savings bank sector, BMPS operates under a model historically tied to regional communities before consolidating into a nationwide diversified bank. Listed on the Milan Stock Exchange since 1999, it competes in the European Diversified Banks sub-industry alongside other large universal banks offering integrated retail, wealth, and corporate banking services.
- ECB rate cuts compress net interest margins
- Non-performing loan cleanup reduces credit costs
- Italian BTP spread widening hits bond portfolio valuations
| Net Income: 3.97b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -884.0% < 20% (prev -1.84k%; Δ 958.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 1.74b > Net Income 3.97b |
| Net Debt (62.0b) to EBITDA (4.34b): 14.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.12 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (3.04b) vs 12m ago 141.1% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.81% > 50% (prev 3.68%; Δ 1.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.10b / Interest Expense TTM 2.08b) |
| A: -0.32 (Total Current Assets 11.0b - Total Current Liabilities 90.1b) / Total Assets 246b |
| B: 0.00 (Retained Earnings 1.12b / Total Assets 246b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 4.10b / Avg Total Assets 186b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 26.4b / Total Liabilities 217b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.82 = D |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 11.45 with a total of 10,692,141 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.30%, over one month by +2.69%, over three months by -4.15% and over the past year by +49.64%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.00 (which is 3.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Banca Monte dei Paschi di has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 9.4571
P/E Forward = 6.1881
P/S = 6.0855
P/B = 1.3018
P/EG = 0.9579
Revenue TTM = 8.94b EUR
EBIT TTM = 4.10b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.34b EUR
Long Term Debt = 49.3b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 73.0b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 62.0b EUR (calculated: Debt 73.0b - CCE 11.0b)
Enterprise Value = 96.2b EUR (34.2b + Debt 73.0b - CCE 11.0b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.97 (Ebit TTM 4.10b / Interest Expense TTM 2.08b)
EV/FCF = 59.32x (Enterprise Value 96.2b / FCF TTM 1.62b)
FCF Yield = 1.69% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Enterprise Value 96.2b)
FCF Margin = 18.13% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Revenue TTM 8.94b)
Net Margin = 44.39% (Net Income TTM 3.97b / Revenue TTM 8.94b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 8.94b - Cost of Revenue TTM 399.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.39 (Enterprise Value 96.2b / Total Assets 246b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.86% (Interest Expense 2.08b / Debt 73.0b)
Taxrate = 17.96% (353.8m / 1.97b)
NOPAT = 3.36b (EBIT 4.10b * (1 - 17.96%))
Current Ratio = 0.12 (Total Current Assets 11.0b / Total Current Liabilities 90.1b)
Debt / Equity = 2.76 (Debt 73.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 26.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.27 (Net Debt 62.0b / EBITDA 4.34b)
Debt / FCF = 38.22 (Net Debt 62.0b / FCF TTM 1.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.14% (Net Income 3.97b / Total Assets 246b)
RoE = 16.75% (Net Income TTM 3.97b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.7b)
RoCE = 5.62% (EBIT 4.10b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.7b + L.T.Debt 49.3b))
RoIC = 2.16% (NOPAT 3.36b / Invested Capital 155b)
WACC = 3.92% (E(34.2b)/V(107b) * Re(7.30%) + D(73.0b)/V(107b) * Rd(2.86%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 7.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.47 | Cagr: 47.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.62b ; Y1≈1.63b ; Y5≈1.72b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 26.8b - Net Debt 62.0b = -35.1b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -65.58 | EPS CAGR: -14.04% | SUE: -0.21 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.17 | Revenue CAGR: 23.98% | SUE: 2.23 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=+5.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-49.9% | GrowthRev=+97.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=+2.61% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+27.3% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)