BMPS Stock Analysis: Banca Monte dei Paschi di | MI

Banks - Regional | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 33.860m EUR | 12M Return: 73.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, Investment Banking
Total Rating 50
Safety 52
Buy Signal 0.88
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 38.6B
Avg Turnover: 199M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility33.8%
VaR 5th Pctl5.64%
VaR vs Median1.10%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.66
Rel. Str. IBD92.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group99.2
Character TTM
Beta0.452
Beta Downside-0.479
Hurst Exponent0.572
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD25.49%
CAGR/Max DD3.10
CAGR/Mean DD14.27
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BMPS over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 8.9, "2021-09": 19.16, "2021-12": -8.27, "2022-03": 1, "2022-06": 2.7, "2022-09": 0.42, "2022-12": 0.74, "2023-03": 0.19, "2023-06": 0.3, "2023-09": 0.25, "2023-12": 0.91, "2024-03": 0.27, "2024-06": 0.68, "2024-09": 0.34, "2024-12": 0.31, "2025-03": null, "2025-06": 0.39, "2025-09": 0.32, "2025-12": 0.52, "2026-03": 0.17,
EPS CAGR: -16.49%
EPS Trend: -55.0%
Last SUE: -0.10
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of BMPS over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 684.9, 2021-09: 716.4, 2021-12: 722.7, 2022-03: 782.6, 2022-06: 715.8, 2022-09: 736.5, 2022-12: 837.6, 2023-03: 880.3, 2023-06: 972.6, 2023-09: 951.7, 2023-12: 989.6, 2024-03: 963.9, 2024-06: 1014.1, 2024-09: 1006.3, 2024-12: 1005.3, 2025-03: 972.7, 2025-06: 1043.4, 2025-09: 1000.7, 2025-12: 1905.7, 2026-03: 1959,
Rev. CAGR: 13.99%
Rev. Trend: 82.2%
Last SUE: 0.64
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Supp Ema8
Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +2.5% 14
Feb +6.6% 28
Mar -3.5% 25
Apr +3.7% 25
May +5.8% 44
Jun -1.7% 2
Jul +3.6% 9
Aug -3.3% 26
Sep -1.5% 24
Oct -10.0% 46
Nov +9.6% 28
Dec -1.8% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BMPS Banca Monte dei Paschi di

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS) is an Italian diversified bank headquartered in Siena, operating through four core segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking. The bank, founded in 1472, is widely recognized as the worlds oldest surviving bank and offers a broad suite of financial products including deposit accounts, payment systems, mortgages, loans, insurance, pensions, and asset management services, alongside specialized offerings such as factoring, corporate finance, leasing, bancassurance, and notably third-party custody services for dairy products. Its client base spans private individuals, SMEs, corporate clients, and large institutional groups across Italy and select international markets.

As a Diversified Bank within the Financials sector, BMPS reflects the traditional Italian commercial banking model, which has historically emphasized regional retail penetration, relationship-based lending to SMEs, and cross-selling of credit and insurance products (bancassurance). Italian diversified banks typically derive a meaningful share of revenue from net interest income, supported by a large branch network and a structurally high ratio of bank deposits to GDP in the domestic market.

Headlines to Watch Out For
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Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.0
Net Income: 3.77b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.36 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 1.74b > Net Income 3.77b
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (cannot be calculated)
Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities)
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (3.04b) vs 12m ago 141.2% < -2%
Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin)
Asset Turnover: 3.23% > 50% (prev 3.21%; Δ 0.02% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.93b / Interest Expense TTM 2.08b)
What is the price of BMPS shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 11.13 with a total of 13,227,778 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.41%, over one month by +10.11%, over three months by +66.42% and over the past year by +73.39%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.50 (which is 5.7% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).

Is BMPS a buy, sell or hold?

Banca Monte dei Paschi di has no consensus analysts rating.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di (BMPS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 38.6b (33.9b EUR * 1.1405 EUR.USD)
P/E Trailing = 8.0754
P/E Forward = 6.1881
P/S = 7.1516
P/B = 1.1913
P/EG = 0.9579
Revenue TTM = 5.91b EUR
EBIT TTM = 2.93b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.15b EUR
Long Term Debt = 49.3b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = unknown
 Net Debt = unknown
 Enterprise Value = 22.6b EUR (33.9b + (null Debt) - CCE 11.2b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.41 (Ebit TTM 2.93b / Interest Expense TTM 2.08b)
EV/FCF = 13.96x (Enterprise Value 22.6b / FCF TTM 1.62b)
FCF Yield = 7.16% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Enterprise Value 22.6b)
FCF Margin = 27.43% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Revenue TTM 5.91b)
Net Margin = 63.88% (Net Income TTM 3.77b / Revenue TTM 5.91b)
 Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 5.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 0.0) / Revenue TTM)
 Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.09 (Enterprise Value 22.6b / Total Assets 241b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = unknown (Interest Expense 2.08b / Debt none)
 Taxrate = 32.24% (293.8m / 911.3m)
NOPAT = 1.99b (EBIT 2.93b * (1 - 32.24%))
 Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 11.2b / Total Current Liabilities none)
 Debt / Equity = unknown (Debt none)
 Debt / EBITDA = unknown (Net Debt none / EBITDA 3.15b)
 Debt / FCF = unknown (Net Debt none / FCF TTM 1.62b)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 23.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.06% (Net Income 3.77b / Total Assets 241b)
RoE = 15.96% (Net Income TTM 3.77b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.6b)
RoCE = 4.02% (EBIT 2.93b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.6b + L.T.Debt 49.3b))
 RoIC = unknown (NOPAT 1.99b, Invested Capital 0.0, EBIT 2.93b)
 WACC = 7.57% (E(33.9b)/V(33.9b) * Re(7.57%) + (debt-free company))
Discount Rate = 7.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 54.51 | Cagr: 10.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.62b ; Y1≈1.63b ; Y5≈1.72b
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.83 (EV 26.8b - Net Debt 0.0 = Equity 26.8b / Shares 3.04b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -54.99 | EPS CAGR: -16.49% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.16 | Revenue CAGR: 13.99% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-5.26% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=+0.25% | Revisions=+18% | GrowthEPS=-50.8% | GrowthRev=+95.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=-1.05% | Revisions=+36% | GrowthEPS=+16.0% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +32% (up=11, down=5)