BPE Stock Analysis: BPER Banca | MI
Banks - Regional | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 28.282m EUR | 12M Return: 49.2% | IT0000066123 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 76.5M
EPS Trend: 41.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
BPER Banca SpA is an Italian regional bank that provides a broad range of retail and corporate banking products and services, including current and savings accounts, loans, mortgages, cards, insurance, digital banking, and investment solutions. Its offerings span individuals, businesses, and professionals, with operations primarily in Italy and a presence internationally.
The company also delivers wealth management services such as portfolio management, financial advisory, and wealth planning, alongside insurance investment products, funds, and SICAVs (open-ended investment vehicles common in European fund structures). It further supports corporate clients with financing, leasing, collection and payment services, trade finance (import/export), and liquidity and investment management.
Founded in 1867 and headquartered in Modena, BPER is classified as a Large Cap stock within the GICS Regional Banks sub-industry, reflecting its significant size within Italys domestic banking sector. Italian regional banks like BPER typically derive a meaningful share of revenue from net interest income on retail and SME lending, complemented by fees from asset management, insurance distribution, and payment services.
- ECB rate cuts pressure net interest margins
- Branch acquisitions from Intesa and Carige expand loan book
- Italian BTP yield moves drive bond portfolio income
| Net Income: 2.19b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.42k% < 20% (prev -1.19k%; Δ -227.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 9.02b > Net Income 2.19b |
| Net Debt (27.5b) to EBITDA (3.60b): 7.65 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.06b) vs 12m ago 42.31% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.02% > 18% (prev 81.61%; Δ 5.41% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.17% > 50% (prev 5.10%; Δ 0.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.44 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.35b / Interest Expense TTM 1.37b) |
| A: -0.62 (Total Current Assets 12.4b - Total Current Liabilities 142b) / Total Assets 209b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 1.28b / Total Assets 209b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 3.35b / Avg Total Assets 177b) |
| D: 0.08 (Book Value of Equity 15.7b / Total Liabilities 193b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.84 = D |
| DSRI: 0.64 (Receivables 243.8m/309.4m, Revenue 9.13b/7.37b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 81.61% / 87.02%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.93 / AQ_t-1 0.93) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 9.13b / 7.37b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 2.19b - CFO 9.02b) / TA 209b) |
| Beneish M = -3.21 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 13.82 with a total of 5,998,542 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.11%, over one month by -3.51%, over three months by -1.72% and over the past year by +49.22%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.10 (which is 5.2% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
BPER Banca has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 12.2745
P/E Forward = 5.8275
P/S = 4.069
P/B = 1.6574
P/EG = 0.6486
Revenue TTM = 9.13b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.35b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.60b EUR
Long Term Debt = 22.0b EUR (estimated: total debt 39.9b - short term 17.9b)
Short Term Debt = 17.9b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 39.9b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 27.5b EUR (calculated: Debt 39.9b - CCE 12.4b)
Enterprise Value = 55.8b EUR (28.3b + Debt 39.9b - CCE 12.4b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.44 (Ebit TTM 3.35b / Interest Expense TTM 1.37b)
EV/FCF = 6.25x (Enterprise Value 55.8b / FCF TTM 8.93b)
FCF Yield = 16.00% (FCF TTM 8.93b / Enterprise Value 55.8b)
FCF Margin = 97.79% (FCF TTM 8.93b / Revenue TTM 9.13b)
Net Margin = 24.01% (Net Income TTM 2.19b / Revenue TTM 9.13b)
Gross Margin = 87.02% ((Revenue TTM 9.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 94.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.27 (Enterprise Value 55.8b / Total Assets 209b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.44% (Interest Expense 1.37b / Debt 39.9b)
Taxrate = 33.11% (1.10b / 3.33b)
NOPAT = 2.24b (EBIT 3.35b * (1 - 33.11%))
Current Ratio = 0.09 (Total Current Assets 12.4b / Total Current Liabilities 142b)
Debt / Equity = 2.54 (Debt 39.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.65 (Net Debt 27.5b / EBITDA 3.60b)
Debt / FCF = 3.08 (Net Debt 27.5b / FCF TTM 8.93b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.24% (Net Income 2.19b / Total Assets 209b)
RoE = 13.80% (Net Income TTM 2.19b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.9b)
RoCE = 8.84% (EBIT 3.35b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.9b + L.T.Debt 22.0b))
RoIC = 2.66% (NOPAT 2.24b / Invested Capital 84.1b)
WACC = 4.46% (E(28.3b)/V(68.2b) * Re(7.52%) + D(39.9b)/V(68.2b) * Rd(3.44%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 7.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 87.80 | Cagr: 18.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈8.93b ; Y1≈8.96b ; Y5≈9.49b
[DCF] Fair Price = 57.37 (EV 148b - Net Debt 27.5b = Equity 120b / Shares 2.09b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 41.47 | EPS CAGR: 6.24% | SUE: 1.66 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.28 | Revenue CAGR: 11.93% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+3.45% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.19 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=-5.0% | GrowthRev=+17.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=11, down=1)