ISP Stock Analysis: Intesa Sanpaolo | MI

Banks - Regional | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 117.100m EUR | 12M Return: 33% | IT0000072618 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, Insurance, Asset Management
Total Rating 46
Safety 43
Buy Signal 0.24
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +0.0
Market Cap: 134B
Avg Turnover: 250M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility23.5%
VaR 5th Pctl4.31%
VaR vs Median11.2%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.16
Rel. Str. IBD76.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group45.4
Character TTM
Beta0.509
Beta Downside0.005
Hurst Exponent0.467
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD21.18%
CAGR/Max DD2.58
CAGR/Mean DD18.83
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ISP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.07, "2021-12": 0.01, "2022-03": 0.02, "2022-06": 0.07, "2022-09": 0.05, "2022-12": 0.05, "2023-03": 0.12, "2023-06": 0.13, "2023-09": 0.1, "2023-12": 0.1, "2024-03": 0.15, "2024-06": 0.14, "2024-09": 0.14, "2024-12": 0.11, "2025-03": 0.15, "2025-06": 0.15, "2025-09": 0.14, "2025-12": 0.1, "2026-03": 0.16, "2026-06": 0.16,
EPS CAGR: 10.32%
EPS Trend: 85.9%
Last SUE: 1.20
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of ISP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 5871, 2021-12: 5012, 2022-03: 6138, 2022-06: 6161, 2022-09: 6043, 2022-12: 5674, 2023-03: 9168, 2023-06: 10194, 2023-09: 10828, 2023-12: 11324, 2024-03: 11569, 2024-06: 11054, 2024-09: 10899, 2024-12: 11284, 2025-03: 10082, 2025-06: 9765, 2025-09: 9269, 2025-12: 6648, 2026-03: 10155.561, 2026-06: 7311,
Rev. CAGR: -5.83%
Rev. Trend: -50.5%
Last SUE: 0.06
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +4.5% 12
Feb -0.1% 5
Mar -3.6% 21
Apr +0.5% 17
May +1.4% 20
Jun -0.2% 19
Jul +4.2% 24
Aug -0.9% 14
Sep +0.7% 14
Oct -0.6% 13
Nov -0.2% 13
Dec +0.1% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ISP Intesa Sanpaolo

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is an Italian diversified banking group headquartered in Turin, providing a broad range of financial products and services across Italy, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. It operates through six business segments: Banca dei Territori (retail banking), IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking, and Insurance, reflecting a universal banking model that combines traditional lending and deposit-taking with investment banking, insurance, and wealth management activities. The group serves a wide customer base including individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, corporates, financial institutions, public administration, and high net worth clients, and also offers digital banking, leasing, factoring, and bancassurance products. As a large-cap European bank, Intesa Sanpaolos revenue mix is shaped by net interest income from lending activities, fee-based income from asset management and private banking, and premiums from its insurance arm, with Italian and European government bond holdings historically playing a significant role in bank balance sheets across the sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • ECB rate cuts pressure domestic net interest margins
  • Central Eastern Europe lending growth drives International Banks segment
  • Insurance and asset management fees diversify revenue mix
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 10.5b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.10 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -16.16% < 20% (prev -859.2%; Δ 843.0% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 8.23b > Net Income 10.5b
Net Debt (97.4b) to EBITDA (15.6b): 6.26 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.87 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.2b) vs 12m ago 3.17% < -2%
Gross Margin: 80.64% > 18% (prev 68.23%; Δ 12.41% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 3.45% > 50% (prev 4.45%; Δ -1.01% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.61 > 6 (EBIT TTM 13.8b / Interest Expense TTM 8.58b)
Altman Z'' 0.22
A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 37.2b - Total Current Liabilities 42.6b) / Total Assets 993b
B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 25.4b / Total Assets 993b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 13.8b / Avg Total Assets 968b)
D: 0.07 (Book Value of Equity 69.0b / Total Liabilities 924b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.22 = B
What is the price of ISP shares?

As of September 22, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 6.78 with a total of 32,145,197 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.03%, over one month by +0.16%, over three months by +8.76% and over the past year by +33.02%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.60 (which is 2.7% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is ISP a buy, sell or hold?

Intesa Sanpaolo has no consensus analysts rating.

Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 17 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 134b (117b EUR * 1.1465 EUR.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.0321
P/E Forward = 10.3093
P/S = 4.4813
P/B = 1.6865
P/EG = 1.8078
Revenue TTM = 33.4b EUR
EBIT TTM = 13.8b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 15.6b EUR
Long Term Debt = 135b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 135b EUR (corrected: LT Debt 135b + ST Debt none)
Net Debt = 97.4b EUR (calculated: Debt 135b - CCE 37.2b)
Enterprise Value = 214b EUR (117b + Debt 135b - CCE 37.2b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.61 (Ebit TTM 13.8b / Interest Expense TTM 8.58b)
EV/FCF = 32.57x (Enterprise Value 214b / FCF TTM 6.58b)
FCF Yield = 3.07% (FCF TTM 6.58b / Enterprise Value 214b)
FCF Margin = 19.73% (FCF TTM 6.58b / Revenue TTM 33.4b)
Net Margin = 31.33% (Net Income TTM 10.5b / Revenue TTM 33.4b)
Gross Margin = 80.64% ((Revenue TTM 33.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.46b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 71.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.22 (Enterprise Value 214b / Total Assets 993b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.38% (Interest Expense 8.58b / Debt 135b)
Taxrate = 24.07% (3.32b / 13.8b)
NOPAT = 10.5b (EBIT 13.8b * (1 - 24.07%))
Current Ratio = 0.87 (Total Current Assets 37.2b / Total Current Liabilities 42.6b)
Debt / Equity = 1.95 (Debt 135b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 69.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.26 (Net Debt 97.4b / EBITDA 15.6b)
Debt / FCF = 14.79 (Net Debt 97.4b / FCF TTM 6.58b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 65.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.08% (Net Income 10.5b / Total Assets 993b)
RoE = 16.04% (Net Income TTM 10.5b / Total Stockholder Equity 65.2b)
RoCE = 6.91% (EBIT 13.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 65.2b + L.T.Debt 135b))
RoIC = 1.10% (NOPAT 10.5b / Invested Capital 948b)
WACC = 6.20% (E(117b)/V(252b) * Re(7.77%) + D(135b)/V(252b) * Rd(6.38%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 7.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -50.03 | Cagr: -1.84%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈6.58b ; Y1≈6.61b ; Y5≈7.00b
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.67 (EV 109b - Net Debt 97.4b = Equity 11.6b / Shares 17.4b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 85.90 | EPS CAGR: 10.32% | SUE: 1.20 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -50.53 | Revenue CAGR: -5.83% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+6.17% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=+1.12% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+12.9% | GrowthRev=+6.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+1.48% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+9.1% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +70% (up=7, down=0)