PST Stock Analysis: Poste Italiane | MI
Conglomerates | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 37.676m EUR | 12M Return: 66.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 104M
EPS Trend: 89.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -92.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Poste Italiane S.p.A. is a Rome-based (founded 1862) multi-segment operator providing postal, logistics, financial, and insurance services across Italy through four reporting segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution (mail, parcel/logistics, and welfare services); PostePay Services (payment management, e-money, and utility/telecom reselling via LIS sales points); Financial Services (placement of current accounts, postal savings, mutual funds, financing, and insurance products); and Insurance Services (life and P&C products covering investment, retirement, and protection).
The business model reflects a hybrid structure combining a universal postal service obligation with a bancassurance-style distribution franchise, leveraging Italys national post office network as the customer acquisition channel for banking and insurance products. In Europe, this postal-plus-financial-services model is also seen in operators such as La Poste (France) and Swiss Post, where mail volumes have structurally declined and cross-selling of financial and insurance products has become the primary earnings driver. Poste Italiane is classified under GICS Life & Health Insurance, reflecting that financial and insurance distribution now represent the largest share of group profit despite the postal heritage.
- ECB rate cuts compress postal savings net interest income
- Parcel volumes surge as e-commerce penetration deepens in Italy
- Life insurance premiums grow on retirement product demand
| Net Income: 2.43b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -336.9% < 20% (prev -300.0%; Δ -36.86% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 8.15b > Net Income 2.43b |
| Net Debt (-8.61b) to EBITDA (4.30b): -2.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.29b) vs 12m ago -0.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.27% > 18% (prev 58.91%; Δ -2.64% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.13% > 50% (prev 5.28%; Δ -0.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 28.89 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.29b / Interest Expense TTM 114.0m) |
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 46.7b - Total Current Liabilities 95.7b) / Total Assets 288b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 10.1b / Total Assets 288b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 3.29b / Avg Total Assets 283b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 13.5b / Total Liabilities 274b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.87 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 1.98b/2.06b, Revenue 14.5b/14.7b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 58.91% / 56.27%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.81) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 14.5b / 14.7b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 2.43b - CFO 8.15b) / TA 288b) |
| Beneish M = -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 28.73 with a total of 1,839,152 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.51%, over one month by +10.98%, over three months by +37.09% and over the past year by +66.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 27.90 (which is 2.9% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Poste Italiane has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 15.4947
P/E Forward = 10.0402
P/S = 2.6314
P/B = 2.7785
Revenue TTM = 14.5b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.29b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.30b EUR
Long Term Debt = 4.91b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 70.7b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.28b EUR (Leases only: 1.28b)
Net Debt = -8.61b EUR (calculated: Debt 1.28b - CCE 9.89b)
Enterprise Value = 29.1b EUR (37.7b + Debt 1.28b - CCE 9.89b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 28.89 (Ebit TTM 3.29b / Interest Expense TTM 114.0m)
EV/FCF = 16.67x (Enterprise Value 29.1b / FCF TTM 1.74b)
FCF Yield = 6.00% (FCF TTM 1.74b / Enterprise Value 29.1b)
FCF Margin = 11.99% (FCF TTM 1.74b / Revenue TTM 14.5b)
Net Margin = 16.73% (Net Income TTM 2.43b / Revenue TTM 14.5b)
Gross Margin = 56.27% ((Revenue TTM 14.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.36b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.50% (prev 67.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 29.1b / Total Assets 288b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.91% (Interest Expense 114.0m / Debt 1.28b)
Taxrate = 29.80% (1.04b / 3.50b)
NOPAT = 2.31b (EBIT 3.29b * (1 - 29.80%))
Current Ratio = 0.49 (Total Current Assets 46.7b / Total Current Liabilities 95.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 1.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 13.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.00 (Net Debt -8.61b / EBITDA 4.30b)
Debt / FCF = -4.94 (Net Debt -8.61b / FCF TTM 1.74b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.86% (Net Income 2.43b / Total Assets 288b)
RoE = 18.26% (Net Income TTM 2.43b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.3b)
RoCE = 18.06% (EBIT 3.29b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.3b + L.T.Debt 4.91b))
RoIC = 0.88% (NOPAT 2.31b / Invested Capital 262b)
WACC = 6.74% (E(37.7b)/V(39.0b) * Re(6.76%) + D(1.28b)/V(39.0b) * Rd(8.91%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 6.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -78.21 | Cagr: -0.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.95% ; FCFF base≈1.72b ; Y1≈1.78b ; Y5≈2.01b
[DCF] Fair Price = 30.72 (EV 31.1b - Net Debt -8.61b = Equity 39.7b / Shares 1.29b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.00% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 89.47 | EPS CAGR: 18.19% | SUE: 0.86 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -92.51 | Revenue CAGR: -19.56% | SUE: 1.10 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=-3.30% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+0.10% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.87 | Chg30d=+0.68% | Revisions=+30% | GrowthEPS=+6.7% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.95 | Chg30d=+0.35% | Revisions=+18% | GrowthEPS=+4.5% | GrowthRev=+1.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +14% (up=11, down=8)