PST Stock Analysis: Poste Italiane | MI
Conglomerates | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 35.368m EUR | 12M Return: 45.2% | IT0003796171 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 59.0M
EPS Trend: 84.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -69.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Poste Italiane S.p.A. is a Rome-based (founded 1862) multi-segment operator providing postal, logistics, financial, and insurance services across Italy through four reporting segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution (mail, parcel/logistics, and welfare services); PostePay Services (payment management, e-money, and utility/telecom reselling via LIS sales points); Financial Services (placement of current accounts, postal savings, mutual funds, financing, and insurance products); and Insurance Services (life and P&C products covering investment, retirement, and protection).
The business model reflects a hybrid structure combining a universal postal service obligation with a bancassurance-style distribution franchise, leveraging Italys national post office network as the customer acquisition channel for banking and insurance products. In Europe, this postal-plus-financial-services model is also seen in operators such as La Poste (France) and Swiss Post, where mail volumes have structurally declined and cross-selling of financial and insurance products has become the primary earnings driver. Poste Italiane is classified under GICS Life & Health Insurance, reflecting that financial and insurance distribution now represent the largest share of group profit despite the postal heritage.
- ECB rate cuts compress postal savings net interest income
- Parcel volumes surge as e-commerce penetration deepens in Italy
- Life insurance premiums grow on retirement product demand
| Net Income: 2.40b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -255.0% < 20% (prev -336.6%; Δ 81.58% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 7.91b > Net Income 2.40b |
| Net Debt (-7.54b) to EBITDA (4.52b): -1.67 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.29b) vs 12m ago -0.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.94% > 18% (prev 71.67%; Δ -18.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.45% > 50% (prev 4.66%; Δ 1.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 28.77 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 121.0m) |
| A: -0.16 (Total Current Assets 48.7b - Total Current Liabilities 96.3b) / Total Assets 294b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 9.59b / Total Assets 294b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Avg Total Assets 289b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 13.6b / Total Liabilities 280b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.83 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.75 (Receivables 2.30b/2.19b, Revenue 18.7b/13.3b) |
| GMI: 1.35 (GM 71.67% / 52.94%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.80) |
| SGI: 1.40 (Revenue 18.7b / 13.3b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 2.40b - CFO 7.91b) / TA 294b) |
| Beneish M = -2.61 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 25, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 27.37 with a total of 1,426,503 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.07%, over one month by +4.67%, over three months by +14.77% and over the past year by +45.19%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.70 (which is 2.4% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Poste Italiane has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 14.7097
P/E Forward = 10.0402
P/S = 2.45
P/B = 2.5505
Revenue TTM = 18.7b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.48b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.52b EUR
Long Term Debt = 4.91b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 70.7b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.28b EUR (Leases only: 1.28b)
Net Debt = -7.54b EUR (calculated: Debt 1.28b - CCE 8.82b)
Enterprise Value = 27.8b EUR (35.4b + Debt 1.28b - CCE 8.82b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 28.77 (Ebit TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 121.0m)
EV/FCF = 19.61x (Enterprise Value 27.8b / FCF TTM 1.42b)
FCF Yield = 5.10% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Enterprise Value 27.8b)
FCF Margin = 7.60% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Revenue TTM 18.7b)
Net Margin = 12.84% (Net Income TTM 2.40b / Revenue TTM 18.7b)
Gross Margin = 52.94% ((Revenue TTM 18.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.72% (prev 28.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.09 (Enterprise Value 27.8b / Total Assets 294b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.46% (Interest Expense 121.0m / Debt 1.28b)
Taxrate = 30.05% (1.04b / 3.46b)
NOPAT = 2.43b (EBIT 3.48b * (1 - 30.05%))
Current Ratio = 0.51 (Total Current Assets 48.7b / Total Current Liabilities 96.3b)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 1.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 13.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.67 (Net Debt -7.54b / EBITDA 4.52b)
Debt / FCF = -5.31 (Net Debt -7.54b / FCF TTM 1.42b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.83% (Net Income 2.40b / Total Assets 294b)
RoE = 17.70% (Net Income TTM 2.40b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.6b)
RoCE = 18.86% (EBIT 3.48b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.6b + L.T.Debt 4.91b))
RoIC = 0.91% (NOPAT 2.43b / Invested Capital 267b)
WACC = 6.74% (E(35.4b)/V(36.6b) * Re(6.74%) + D(1.28b)/V(36.6b) * Rd(9.46%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 6.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -77.66 | Cagr: -0.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈1.84b ; Y1≈1.62b ; Y5≈1.31b
[DCF] Fair Price = 22.04 (EV 21.0b - Net Debt -7.54b = Equity 28.5b / Shares 1.29b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 84.17 | EPS CAGR: 15.49% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -69.15 | Revenue CAGR: -12.90% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.55 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.89 | Chg30d=+1.33% | Revisions=-8% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=+1.59% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=+4.4% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=9, down=9)