(AAL) American Airlines - Ratings and Ratios
Passenger Flights, Cargo Flights, Charter Flights, Loyalty Program
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 64.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.30% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.11 |
| Alpha | -35.91 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.513 |
| Beta | 1.678 |
| Beta Downside | 1.480 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 51.76% |
| Mean DD | 26.38% |
| Median DD | 26.81% |
Description: AAL American Airlines November 04, 2025
American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) operates a global network airline, serving the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific regions. Its primary hubs include Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., complemented by partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. The carrier runs a main-line fleet of 977 aircraft and traces its roots to 1926, with headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas.
Key performance metrics from the most recent fiscal year show a passenger load factor of approximately 84%, an operating margin of 6.2%, and total revenue of $48.9 billion, while the company carries roughly 115 million passengers and generates over 120 billion revenue passenger miles (RPM). The balance sheet remains leveraged, with net debt near $30 billion, but cash flow from operations exceeded $5 billion, providing liquidity for fleet renewal and potential dividend initiatives.
The airline’s earnings are highly sensitive to three macro drivers: (1) jet fuel prices, which account for roughly 30% of operating costs and fluctuate with global oil markets; (2) labor expenses, especially collective-bargaining outcomes that can shift cost structures; and (3) overall travel demand, which is tied to GDP growth, consumer confidence, and discretionary spending trends. Capacity constraints at major hubs and the ongoing recovery of international routes also influence yield and load factor dynamics.
For a deeper quantitative dive into AAL’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you might find the data visualizations on ValueRay useful as a next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income (602.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.26b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.29pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -20.97% (prev -20.66%; Δ -0.32pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.77b > Net Income 602.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (35.23b) to EBITDA (4.02b) ratio: 8.75 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.54 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (660.4m) change vs 12m ago 0.45% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 19.99% (prev 20.34%; Δ -0.35pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 86.41% (prev 84.39%; Δ 2.02pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.40 (EBITDA TTM 4.02b / Interest Expense TTM 1.76b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.48
| (A) -0.18 = (Total Current Assets 13.25b - Total Current Liabilities 24.64b) / Total Assets 62.14b |
| (B) -0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -6.83b / Total Assets 62.14b |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 2.48b / Avg Total Assets 62.83b |
| (D) -0.17 = Book Value of Equity -11.34b / Total Liabilities 66.10b |
| Total Rating: -1.48 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 52.80
| 1. Piotroski 2.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.30% |
| 3. FCF Margin 1.62% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -9.10 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 8.75 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.53)% |
| 7. RoE -14.76% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 60.46% |
| 9. EPS Trend 20.18% |
What is the price of AAL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.01%, over one month by +11.14%, over three months by +15.88% and over the past year by -13.23%.
Is AAL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AAL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15 | 0.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15 | 0.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 15.6 | 4.4% |
AAL Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 16.046
P/E Forward = 7.278
P/S = 0.1697
P/EG = 0.427
Beta = 1.269
Revenue TTM = 54.29b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.48b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 25.11b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.75b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 36.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 35.23b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 38.42b USD (9.21b + Debt 36.06b - CCE 6.86b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.40 (Ebit TTM 2.48b / Interest Expense TTM 1.76b)
FCF Yield = 2.30% (FCF TTM 882.0m / Enterprise Value 38.42b)
FCF Margin = 1.62% (FCF TTM 882.0m / Revenue TTM 54.29b)
Net Margin = 1.11% (Net Income TTM 602.0m / Revenue TTM 54.29b)
Gross Margin = 19.99% ((Revenue TTM 54.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 43.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.35% (prev 23.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.62 (Enterprise Value 38.42b / Total Assets 62.14b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.20% (Interest Expense 432.0m / Debt 36.06b)
Taxrate = 19.72% (-28.0m / -142.0m)
NOPAT = 1.99b (EBIT 2.48b * (1 - 19.72%))
Current Ratio = 0.54 (Total Current Assets 13.25b / Total Current Liabilities 24.64b)
Debt / Equity = -9.10 (negative equity) (Debt 36.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -3.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.75 (Net Debt 35.23b / EBITDA 4.02b)
Debt / FCF = 39.94 (Net Debt 35.23b / FCF TTM 882.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -4.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.97% (Net Income 602.0m / Total Assets 62.14b)
RoE = -14.76% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 602.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -4.08b)
RoCE = 11.77% (EBIT 2.48b / Capital Employed (Equity -4.08b + L.T.Debt 25.11b))
RoIC = 7.78% (NOPAT 1.99b / Invested Capital 25.55b)
WACC = 3.25% (E(9.21b)/V(45.28b) * Re(12.20%) + D(36.06b)/V(45.28b) * Rd(1.20%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 12.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.25%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 54.28% ; FCFE base≈882.0m ; Y1≈579.1m ; Y5≈264.8m
Fair Price DCF = 4.65 (DCF Value 3.07b / Shares Outstanding 660.1m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 20.18 | EPS CAGR: 24.66% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 60.46 | Revenue CAGR: 10.46% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.31 | Chg30d=-0.043 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.81 | Chg30d=+0.083 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+144.1% | Growth Revenue=+6.2%
Additional Sources for AAL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle