(AAOI) Applied Opt - Ratings and Ratios
Optical Modules, Lasers, Transceivers, Amplifiers
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 123% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 176% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.72% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 |
| Alpha | 29.79 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.492 |
| Beta | 3.794 |
| Beta Downside | 3.794 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.17% |
| Mean DD | 34.93% |
| Median DD | 36.58% |
Description: AAOI Applied Opt January 20, 2026
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) designs, manufactures, and sells a broad portfolio of fiber-optic networking components-including optical modules, lasers, transceivers, and turnkey distribution equipment-to data-center operators, cable TV firms, telecom OEMs, FTTH providers, and ISPs across the United States, Taiwan, and China. The company, founded in 1997 and based in Sugar Land, Texas, operates through both direct sales teams and an indirect channel network.
Key metrics from the most recent fiscal year show AAOI generated approximately $115 million in revenue, up 14% YoY, with a gross margin of 38% and a cash balance of $45 million, providing runway for R&D and inventory buildup. The firm’s growth is closely tied to macro drivers such as accelerating data-center capex, the global rollout of 5G which spurs back-haul fiber demand, and continued FTTH expansion in emerging markets.
Given the sector’s projected CAGR of roughly 9% through 2028 for fiber-optic components, AAOI’s diversified product mix and geographic exposure position it to capture a meaningful share of that upside. For a deeper dive into valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you might explore the ValueRay platform for additional context.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -155.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.31 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -14.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 77.34% < 20% (prev 34.01%; Δ 43.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.17 > 3% & CFO -169.5m > Net Income -155.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (63.3m) vs 12m ago 49.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.33% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2907 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.74% > 50% (prev 51.11%; Δ 9.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -38.40 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -127.1m / Interest Expense TTM 3.96m) |
Altman Z'' -2.13
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 575.3m - Total Current Liabilities 249.1m) / Total Assets 978.5m |
| B: -0.50 (Retained Earnings -488.1m / Total Assets 978.5m) |
| C: -0.22 (EBIT TTM -151.9m / Avg Total Assets 694.2m) |
| D: -1.16 (Book Value of Equity -486.9m / Total Liabilities 419.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.13 = D |
Beneish M -1.55
| DSRI: 1.48 (Receivables 224.0m/75.2m, Revenue 421.7m/209.5m) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 29.33% / 26.09%) |
| AQI: 1.75 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 2.01 (Revenue 421.7m / 209.5m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI -155.9m - CFO -169.5m) / TA 978.5m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.55 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
What is the price of AAOI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +17.85%, over one month by +23.07%, over three months by +22.67% and over the past year by +69.59%.
Is AAOI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AAOI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.6 | -19.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 36.6 | -19.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 62.1 | 37.2% |
AAOI Fundamental Data Overview January 28, 2026
P/S = 6.0539
P/B = 4.261
P/EG = 0.51
Revenue TTM = 421.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -151.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -127.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 130.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 64.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 235.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 98.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.65b USD (2.55b + Debt 235.2m - CCE 137.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -38.40 (Ebit TTM -151.9m / Interest Expense TTM 3.96m)
EV/FCF = -8.77x (Enterprise Value 2.65b / FCF TTM -302.3m)
FCF Yield = -11.40% (FCF TTM -302.3m / Enterprise Value 2.65b)
FCF Margin = -71.68% (FCF TTM -302.3m / Revenue TTM 421.7m)
Net Margin = -36.97% (Net Income TTM -155.9m / Revenue TTM 421.7m)
Gross Margin = 29.33% ((Revenue TTM 421.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 298.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.04% (prev 30.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.71 (Enterprise Value 2.65b / Total Assets 978.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.19% (Interest Expense 451.0k / Debt 235.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -120.0m (EBIT -151.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.31 (Total Current Assets 575.3m / Total Current Liabilities 249.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 235.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 559.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.77 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 98.2m / EBITDA -127.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.32 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 98.2m / FCF TTM -302.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 380.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -22.46% (Net Income -155.9m / Total Assets 978.5m)
RoE = -40.97% (Net Income TTM -155.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 380.5m)
RoCE = -29.75% (EBIT -151.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 380.5m + L.T.Debt 130.1m))
RoIC = -21.21% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -120.0m / Invested Capital 565.8m)
WACC = 18.23% (E(2.55b)/V(2.79b) * Re(19.90%) + D(235.2m)/V(2.79b) * Rd(0.19%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 19.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 17.85%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 31.63%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -302.3m)
EPS Correlation: 58.67 | EPS CAGR: 75.54% | SUE: 0.96 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 64.73 | Revenue CAGR: 23.10% | SUE: -0.51 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.05 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.85 | Chg30d=+0.070 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+320.3% | Growth Revenue=+68.4%