(AAON) AAON - Ratings and Ratios
Rooftop Units, Chillers, Air Handlers, Coils, Heat Pumps, Controls
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.87% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 1.29% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 31.8% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 58.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 85.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.24% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.39 |
| Alpha | -58.45 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.485 |
| Beta | 1.534 |
| Beta Downside | 1.187 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.86% |
| Mean DD | 16.72% |
| Median DD | 10.51% |
Description: AAON AAON November 06, 2025
AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) designs, manufactures, markets, and sells a broad portfolio of HVAC and thermal-energy solutions-including rooftop units, data-center cooling, clean-room systems, chillers, heat pumps, and control components-to commercial customers across the United States and Canada. The business is organized into three operating segments-AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX-and reaches end-users through independent manufacturer representatives, an internal sales force, and an online channel.
According to the company’s most recent Form 10-K (FY 2023), AAON generated roughly **$1.2 billion** in revenue with an **operating margin of ~13 %**, and it reported a **backlog of about $500 million**, indicating strong demand continuity. The HVAC sector is being propelled by two macro drivers: (1) a **steady 4 %-5 % CAGR growth in commercial construction and retro-fit spending**, and (2) **accelerating data-center expansion**, which raises demand for high-efficiency, modular cooling solutions-areas where AAON’s product mix has a competitive edge. Conversely, the company’s performance is sensitive to **interest-rate-driven construction cycles** and **raw-material cost volatility** (e.g., steel and copper), which can compress margins if not managed.
If you’re looking to deepen your quantitative analysis of AAON’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at the metrics and scenario models on ValueRay can help you spot any pricing gaps before the next earnings release.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (100.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 78.9m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.15 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -25.89pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 38.70% (prev 23.81%; Δ 14.89pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO -17.9m <= Net Income 100.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (359.1m) to EBITDA (208.4m) ratio: 1.72 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.04 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (83.0m) change vs 12m ago -0.19% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 26.88% (prev 35.65%; Δ -8.78pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 102.6% (prev 117.4%; Δ -14.77pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 10.01 (EBITDA TTM 208.4m / Interest Expense TTM 13.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.84
| (A) 0.33 = (Total Current Assets 759.3m - Total Current Liabilities 250.2m) / Total Assets 1.53b |
| (B) 0.53 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 806.4m / Total Assets 1.53b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 131.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.28b |
| (D) 1.20 = Book Value of Equity 806.8m / Total Liabilities 671.0m |
| Total Rating: 5.84 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 46.73
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -3.52% |
| 3. FCF Margin -17.63% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.42 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.72 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.54)% |
| 7. RoE 12.02% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 84.92% |
| 9. EPS Trend -46.02% |
What is the price of AAON shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.88%, over one month by -1.64%, over three months by -21.27% and over the past year by -32.93%.
Is AAON a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AAON price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 115.3 | 41.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 115.3 | 41.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 83.7 | 2.5% |
AAON Fundamental Data Overview January 02, 2026
P/E Trailing = 65.1709
P/E Forward = 51.0204
P/S = 4.7315
P/B = 9.629
P/EG = 3.3972
Beta = 1.057
Revenue TTM = 1.32b USD
EBIT TTM = 131.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 208.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 360.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 360.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 359.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.58b USD (6.22b + Debt 360.1m - CCE 1.04m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.01 (Ebit TTM 131.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.2m)
FCF Yield = -3.52% (FCF TTM -231.9m / Enterprise Value 6.58b)
FCF Margin = -17.63% (FCF TTM -231.9m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Net Margin = 7.62% (Net Income TTM 100.3m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Gross Margin = 26.88% ((Revenue TTM 1.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 962.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.81% (prev 26.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.29 (Enterprise Value 6.58b / Total Assets 1.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.43% (Interest Expense 5.15m / Debt 360.1m)
Taxrate = 19.93% (7.66m / 38.4m)
NOPAT = 105.6m (EBIT 131.9m * (1 - 19.93%))
Current Ratio = 3.04 (Total Current Assets 759.3m / Total Current Liabilities 250.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 360.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 863.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.72 (Net Debt 359.1m / EBITDA 208.4m)
Debt / FCF = -1.55 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 359.1m / FCF TTM -231.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 834.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.53% (Net Income 100.3m / Total Assets 1.53b)
RoE = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 100.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 834.1m)
RoCE = 11.04% (EBIT 131.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 834.1m + L.T.Debt 360.1m))
RoIC = 9.55% (NOPAT 105.6m / Invested Capital 1.11b)
WACC = 11.09% (E(6.22b)/V(6.58b) * Re(11.67%) + D(360.1m)/V(6.58b) * Rd(1.43%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 11.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.30%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -231.9m)
EPS Correlation: -46.02 | EPS CAGR: -42.18% | SUE: -3.63 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.92 | Revenue CAGR: 31.84% | SUE: 1.95 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.44 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.99 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+39.8% | Growth Revenue=+12.2%
Additional Sources for AAON Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle