AAON Stock Analysis: AAON | NASDAQ
Building Products & Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 7.347m USD | 12M Return: -15% | US0003602069 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 95.4M
EPS Trend: -75.8%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 87.3%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AAON, Inc. is a U.S.-based manufacturer of commercial and industrial air conditioning and heating equipment, operating through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. The company offers a broad product portfolio including rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, air handling units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, and coils. It serves diverse end markets such as retail, manufacturing, education, lodging, supermarkets, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries, distributing its products through independent manufacturer representatives, an internal sales force, and online channels. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, AAON has been listed on NASDAQ since 1992 and is classified within the Industrials sector under Building Products.
The commercial HVAC industry is closely tied to non-residential construction cycles, with growing demand from data center development representing a notable tailwind for specialized cooling providers. AAONs multi-segment structure, combining standardized rooftop equipment with higher-margin specialty offerings like cleanroom and data center solutions, reflects a strategy of balancing volume-based production with engineered-to-order products.
- Data center cooling demand accelerates AAON segment revenue growth
- Steel and copper costs pressure HVAC product margins
- Commercial construction cycle drives rooftop unit order trends
| Net Income: 159.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 34.40% < 20% (prev 35.23%; Δ -0.83% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 86.5m > Net Income 159.3m |
| Net Debt (480.9m) to EBITDA (319.9m): 1.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.7m) vs 12m ago 0.92% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.57% > 18% (prev 28.67%; Δ -3.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 118.4% > 50% (prev 89.94%; Δ 28.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.64 > 6 (EBIT TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.2m) |
| A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 995.0m - Total Current Liabilities 330.3m) / Total Assets 1.86b |
| B: 0.49 (Retained Earnings 910.4m / Total Assets 1.86b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 213.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.63b) |
| D: 1.18 (Book Value of Equity 1.01b / Total Liabilities 853.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.06 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.60 (Receivables 380.0m/411.1m, Revenue 1.93b/1.26b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 28.67% / 25.57%) |
| AQI: 0.76 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.54 (Revenue 1.93b / 1.26b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 159.3m - CFO 86.5m) / TA 1.86b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 83.27 with a total of 706,918 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.54%, over one month by +11.74%, over three months by -22.53% and over the past year by -14.97%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 72.90 (which is 12.5% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
AAON has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AAON.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 134.8 | 61.8% |
P/E Trailing = 46.8947
P/E Forward = 21.7865
P/S = 3.8019
P/B = 6.7201
P/EG = 0.9472
Revenue TTM = 1.93b USD
EBIT TTM = 213.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 319.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 435.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 480.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 17.1m
Net Debt = 480.9m USD (calculated: Debt 480.9m - CCE 13.0k)
Enterprise Value = 7.83b USD (7.35b + Debt 480.9m - CCE 13.0k)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.64 (Ebit TTM 213.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.2m)
EV/FCF = -65.90x (Enterprise Value 7.83b / FCF TTM -118.8m)
FCF Yield = -1.52% (FCF TTM -118.8m / Enterprise Value 7.83b)
FCF Margin = -6.15% (FCF TTM -118.8m / Revenue TTM 1.93b)
Net Margin = 8.24% (Net Income TTM 159.3m / Revenue TTM 1.93b)
Gross Margin = 25.57% ((Revenue TTM 1.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.32% (prev 25.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.20 (Enterprise Value 7.83b / Total Assets 1.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.61% (Interest Expense 22.2m / Debt 480.9m)
Taxrate = 16.90% (32.4m / 191.7m)
NOPAT = 177.6m (EBIT 213.8m * (1 - 16.90%))
Current Ratio = 3.01 (Total Current Assets 995.0m / Total Current Liabilities 330.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 480.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.50 (Net Debt 480.9m / EBITDA 319.9m)
Debt / FCF = -4.05 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 480.9m / FCF TTM -118.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 925.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.76% (Net Income 159.3m / Total Assets 1.86b)
RoE = 17.21% (Net Income TTM 159.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 925.7m)
RoCE = 15.71% (EBIT 213.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 925.7m + L.T.Debt 435.0m))
RoIC = 11.53% (NOPAT 177.6m / Invested Capital 1.54b)
WACC = 13.94% (E(7.35b)/V(7.83b) * Re(14.60%) + D(480.9m)/V(7.83b) * Rd(4.61%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 14.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -45.27 | Cagr: -0.17%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -118.8m)
EPS Correlation: -75.83 | EPS CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 87.34 | Revenue CAGR: 16.80% | SUE: 2.79 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=+0.59% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.36 | Chg30d=-0.48% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+74.6% | GrowthRev=+59.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.50 | Chg30d=-0.84% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+48.4% | GrowthRev=+17.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +7% (up=6, down=5)