(AAON) AAON - Overview
Stock: Rooftop Units, Chillers, Coils, Heat Pumps, Air Handlers
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.46% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.76% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 1.29% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 41.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.05 |
| Alpha | -37.15 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.503 |
| Beta Downside | 1.189 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.52 |
Description: AAON AAON January 09, 2026
AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) designs, manufactures, markets and sells a broad portfolio of HVAC equipment-including rooftop units, data-center cooling, clean-room systems, chillers, heat-recovery units and geothermal heat pumps-to commercial customers across the United States and Canada. The business is organized into three operating segments: AAON Oklahoma (core HVAC units), AAON Coil Products (heat-exchange components) and BASX (building-automation and controls).
Key market drivers for AAON include sustained growth in U.S. commercial construction (the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Index has risen ~8 % YoY in 2024), expanding data-center capacity (global data-center power-usage-effectiveness demand is up ~12 % YoY), and increasing ESG pressure that favors high-efficiency, water-source heat-pump solutions. AAON’s product mix is positioned to capture these trends, especially in the data-center and clean-room segments where energy-recovery and precise temperature control command premium pricing.
Recent financial highlights (Q3 2024) show revenue of $1.08 bn, a 9 % year-over-year increase, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2 %, reflecting both higher unit volumes and modest pricing power. The company reported a $210 million order backlog, roughly 2.5 × its quarterly revenue, indicating near-term demand visibility.
AAON distributes its products through an independent manufacturer-representative network, an internal sales force and an expanding e-commerce platform, which together provide coverage across retail, manufacturing, education, hospitality, supermarkets, medical/pharma and other commercial sectors.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, see the AAON page on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 100.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -25.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 38.70% < 20% (prev 23.81%; Δ 14.89% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -17.9m > Net Income 100.3m |
| Net Debt (376.9m) to EBITDA (208.4m): 1.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.0m) vs 12m ago -0.19% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.88% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 2652 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 102.6% > 50% (prev 117.4%; Δ -14.77% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.01 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 208.4m / Interest Expense TTM 13.2m) |
Altman Z'' 5.84
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 759.3m - Total Current Liabilities 250.2m) / Total Assets 1.53b |
| B: 0.53 (Retained Earnings 806.4m / Total Assets 1.53b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 131.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.28b) |
| D: 1.20 (Book Value of Equity 806.8m / Total Liabilities 671.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.84 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.02
| DSRI: 1.91 (Receivables 498.9m/240.1m, Revenue 1.32b/1.21b) |
| GMI: 1.33 (GM 26.88% / 35.65%) |
| AQI: 0.70 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 1.32b / 1.21b) |
| TATA: 0.08 (NI 100.3m - CFO -17.9m) / TA 1.53b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.02 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
What is the price of AAON shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.90%, over one month by +18.07%, over three months by -3.50% and over the past year by -15.06%.
Is AAON a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AAON price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 115.3 | 19.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 115.3 | 19.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 113.2 | 17.4% |
AAON Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 44.6429
P/S = 5.6504
P/B = 8.6126
P/EG = 2.7898
Revenue TTM = 1.32b USD
EBIT TTM = 131.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 208.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 360.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.90m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 377.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 376.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.81b USD (7.43b + Debt 377.9m - CCE 1.04m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.01 (Ebit TTM 131.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.2m)
EV/FCF = -33.68x (Enterprise Value 7.81b / FCF TTM -231.9m)
FCF Yield = -2.97% (FCF TTM -231.9m / Enterprise Value 7.81b)
FCF Margin = -17.63% (FCF TTM -231.9m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Net Margin = 7.62% (Net Income TTM 100.3m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Gross Margin = 26.88% ((Revenue TTM 1.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 962.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.81% (prev 26.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.09 (Enterprise Value 7.81b / Total Assets 1.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.36% (Interest Expense 5.15m / Debt 377.9m)
Taxrate = 19.93% (7.66m / 38.4m)
NOPAT = 105.6m (EBIT 131.9m * (1 - 19.93%))
Current Ratio = 3.04 (Total Current Assets 759.3m / Total Current Liabilities 250.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 377.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 863.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.81 (Net Debt 376.9m / EBITDA 208.4m)
Debt / FCF = -1.63 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 376.9m / FCF TTM -231.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 834.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.82% (Net Income 100.3m / Total Assets 1.53b)
RoE = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 100.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 834.1m)
RoCE = 11.04% (EBIT 131.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 834.1m + L.T.Debt 360.1m))
RoIC = 9.55% (NOPAT 105.6m / Invested Capital 1.11b)
WACC = 10.95% (E(7.43b)/V(7.81b) * Re(11.45%) + D(377.9m)/V(7.81b) * Rd(1.36%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 11.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.30%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -231.9m)
EPS Correlation: -46.02 | EPS CAGR: -42.18% | SUE: -3.63 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.92 | Revenue CAGR: 31.84% | SUE: 1.95 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.98 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+39.7% | Growth Revenue=+12.4%