(AARD) Aardvark Therapeutics - Overview

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US0029421007

Stock: ARD-101, ARD-201, Small-Molecule, Obesity, Hyperphagia

Total Rating 24

Risk 65

Buy Signal 0.03

Biotechnology » Pharmaceuticals
Age: 1y

Market Cap: 275m
Avg Trading Vol: 2.15M USD

ATR: 9.08%
Peers RS (IBD): 43.30

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -89.92%
EPS Trend: -82.0%

Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 0.00%

Qual. Beats: 0

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	109%
Relative Tail Risk	-7.17%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.41
Alpha	-26.19

Character TTM
Beta	1.393
Beta Downside	1.352

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	59.42%
CAGR/Max DD	-0.10

Description: AARD Aardvark Therapeutics December 30, 2025

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AARD) is a clinical-stage biopharma headquartered in San Diego that develops oral, gut-restricted small-molecule agonists targeting bitter-taste receptors to modulate innate homeostatic pathways for metabolic disorders.

Its lead candidate, ARD-101, is being evaluated in a Phase 3 trial for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome and in a Phase 2 study for acquired hypothalamic obesity following craniopharyngioma treatment; a second molecule, ARD-201, is in Phase 1 for general obesity.

Key market context: the global obesity therapeutics market is projected to exceed $250 billion by 2028, and recent FDA approvals (e.g., semaglutide) have expanded payer willingness to cover high-efficacy oral agents. As of the most recent 10-Q, AARD reported roughly $150 million in cash and equivalents, giving it an estimated 12-month runway at current burn rates, while R&D spend has risen ~45 % year-over-year, reflecting the advancement of its pipeline.

For a data-driven, granular valuation of AARD, the ValueRay platform provides a deep dive into cash runway, peer multiples, and scenario analysis.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0

Net Income: error (cannot be calculated; needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM)
FCF/TA: -0.36 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -21.84 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev)
CFO/TA -0.36 > 3% & CFO -47.5m > Net Income -48.8m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 12.03 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.7m) vs 12m ago 68.20% < -2%
Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin)
Asset Turnover: 0.0% > 50% (prev 0.0%; Δ 0.0% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -15.73 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -52.0m / Interest Expense TTM -3.31m)

Altman Z'' -9.30

A: 0.89 (Total Current Assets 129.2m - Total Current Liabilities 10.7m) / Total Assets 133.2m
B: -0.74 (Retained Earnings -98.3m / Total Assets 133.2m)
C: -0.48 (EBIT TTM -52.1m / Avg Total Assets 108.5m)
D: -9.05 (Book Value of Equity -98.2m / Total Liabilities 10.9m)
Altman-Z'' Score: -9.30 = D

What is the price of AARD shares?

As of February 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.48 with a total of 103,783 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.35%, over one month by -5.54%, over three months by +29.12% and over the past year by -5.80%.

Is AARD a buy, sell or hold?

Aardvark Therapeutics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AARD.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 2
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AARD price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	32.6	142.1%
Analysts Target Price	32.6	142.1%
ValueRay Target Price	13.4	-0.8%

AARD Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026

P/B = 2.2667
Revenue TTM = 0.0 USD
EBIT TTM = -52.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -52.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 545.0k USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 429.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 545.0k USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -38.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 149.6m USD (275.4m + Debt 545.0k - CCE 126.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -15.73 (Ebit TTM -52.1m / Interest Expense TTM -3.31m)
EV/FCF = -3.14x (Enterprise Value 149.6m / FCF TTM -47.6m)
FCF Yield = -31.80% (FCF TTM -47.6m / Enterprise Value 149.6m)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 15.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.12 (Enterprise Value 149.6m / Total Assets 133.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = -607.7% (Interest Expense -3.31m / Debt 545.0k)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -41.1m (EBIT -52.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 12.03 (Total Current Assets 129.2m / Total Current Liabilities 10.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 545.0k / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 122.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.74 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -38.7m / EBITDA -52.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.81 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -38.7m / FCF TTM -47.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 88.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -44.96% (Net Income -48.8m / Total Assets 133.2m)
RoE = -54.90% (Net Income TTM -48.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 88.8m)
RoCE = -58.27% (EBIT -52.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 88.8m + L.T.Debt 545.0k))
RoIC = -46.32% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -41.1m / Invested Capital 88.8m)
WACC = 11.03% (E(275.4m)/V(276.0m) * Re(11.05%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 11.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 49.37%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -47.6m)
EPS Correlation: -82.04 | EPS CAGR: -89.92% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.89 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.59 | Chg30d=+0.040 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-21.6% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%

Additional Sources for AARD Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle