(ACAD) ACADIA Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Stock: Pimavanserin, Trofinetide, Psychosis, Rett Syndrome, CNS Disorders
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.58 |
| Alpha | 6.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.861 |
| Beta Downside | 0.756 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.13 |
Description: ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals January 12, 2026
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) is a U.S.-based biopharma focused on central nervous system (CNS) disorders and rare diseases, commercializing NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for Parkinson’s disease psychosis and advancing a pipeline that spans schizophrenia, Prader-Willi syndrome, Alzheimer’s-related psychosis, essential tremor, treatment-resistant depression, Rett syndrome, Fragile X, and novel GPR88 agonists.
Key recent metrics: NUPLAZID generated approximately $115 million in net sales in 2023, up ~30 % year-over-year, and the company reported $210 million of cash and marketable securities at the end of Q3 2024, giving it roughly 12-month runway at current burn rates. The Phase III-positive pimavanserin program for negative symptoms of schizophrenia and the Phase III-completed ACP-101 for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome are the most advanced non-commercial assets.
Sector drivers that materially affect ACAD’s outlook include the growing FDA emphasis on CNS-focused expedited pathways (e.g., Fast Track, Breakthrough Therapy) and the macro-trend of rising investment in rare-disease therapeutics, which typically command premium pricing and limited competition.
Strategic collaborations-such as the Neuren license for trofinetide (Rett syndrome) and the Stoke Therapeutics RNA-medicine partnership-expand ACAD’s platform capabilities while sharing development risk.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of ACAD’s risk-adjusted valuation.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 261.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 68.74% < 20% (prev 47.82%; Δ 20.93% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 198.9m > Net Income 261.2m |
| Net Debt (-203.2m) to EBITDA (117.3m): -1.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (170.7m) vs 12m ago 2.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 91.92% > 18% (prev 0.92%; Δ 9101 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 90.75% > 50% (prev 95.12%; Δ -4.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.61 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 117.3m / Interest Expense TTM -170.4m) |
Altman Z'' -6.26
| A: 0.54 (Total Current Assets 1.08b - Total Current Liabilities 356.6m) / Total Assets 1.33b |
| B: -1.57 (Retained Earnings -2.09b / Total Assets 1.33b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 103.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.15b) |
| D: -5.04 (Book Value of Equity -2.09b / Total Liabilities 413.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -6.26 = D |
Beneish M -2.65
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 139.4m/98.2m, Revenue 1.05b/929.2m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 91.92% / 91.61%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 1.05b / 929.2m) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 261.2m - CFO 198.9m) / TA 1.33b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.65 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ACAD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.84%, over one month by -12.45%, over three months by +6.13% and over the past year by +24.79%.
Is ACAD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ACAD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 31.1 | 31.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 31.1 | 31.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 24.4 | 3.6% |
ACAD Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 39.6825
P/S = 4.0602
P/B = 4.7401
P/EG = -0.42
Revenue TTM = 1.05b USD
EBIT TTM = 103.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 117.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 54.8m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 54.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -203.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.46b USD (4.25b + Debt 54.8m - CCE 847.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.61 (Ebit TTM 103.2m / Interest Expense TTM -170.4m)
EV/FCF = 17.49x (Enterprise Value 3.46b / FCF TTM 197.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.72% (FCF TTM 197.8m / Enterprise Value 3.46b)
FCF Margin = 18.89% (FCF TTM 197.8m / Revenue TTM 1.05b)
Net Margin = 24.94% (Net Income TTM 261.2m / Revenue TTM 1.05b)
Gross Margin = 91.92% ((Revenue TTM 1.05b - Cost of Revenue TTM 84.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 92.23% (prev 92.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.60 (Enterprise Value 3.46b / Total Assets 1.33b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 16.55% (Interest Expense 9.07m / Debt 54.8m)
Taxrate = 12.25% (31.6m / 258.1m)
NOPAT = 90.6m (EBIT 103.2m * (1 - 12.25%))
Current Ratio = 3.02 (Total Current Assets 1.08b / Total Current Liabilities 356.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 54.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 917.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.73 (Net Debt -203.2m / EBITDA 117.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.03 (Net Debt -203.2m / FCF TTM 197.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 809.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.64% (Net Income 261.2m / Total Assets 1.33b)
RoE = 32.27% (Net Income TTM 261.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 809.4m)
RoCE = 11.95% (EBIT 103.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 809.4m + L.T.Debt 54.8m))
RoIC = 11.19% (NOPAT 90.6m / Invested Capital 809.4m)
WACC = 9.16% (E(4.25b)/V(4.31b) * Re(9.09%) + D(54.8m)/V(4.31b) * Rd(16.55%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 9.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.15% ; FCFF base≈199.7m ; Y1≈131.1m ; Y5≈59.8m
Fair Price DCF = 6.96 (EV 974.0m - Net Debt -203.2m = Equity 1.18b / Shares 169.2m; r=9.16% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 67.51 | EPS CAGR: 50.63% | SUE: -0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.81 | Revenue CAGR: 22.35% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.022 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-1.9% | Growth Revenue=+11.2%