(ACAD) ACADIA Pharmaceuticals - Ratings and Ratios
Antipsychotic, Rett, Schizophrenia, Tremor, Depression
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 63.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.17% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.08 |
| Alpha | 39.63 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.28 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.573 |
| Beta | 0.868 |
| Beta Downside | 0.886 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.87% |
| Mean DD | 31.87% |
| Median DD | 33.45% |
Description: ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals November 09, 2025
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) is a U.S.-based biopharma focused on central nervous system (CNS) disorders and rare diseases, commercializing NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for Parkinson’s disease psychosis and developing a pipeline of novel agents across schizophrenia, Prader-Willi syndrome, Alzheimer’s disease psychosis, essential tremor, treatment-resistant depression, Rett syndrome, and Fragile X.
NUPLAZID generated $215 million in 2023 revenue, representing roughly 70 % of ACAD’s total sales, and the drug benefits from a 10-year orphan exclusivity period that underpins a stable cash flow in a niche market.
The pipeline’s most advanced candidates include pimavanserin for negative-symptom schizophrenia (Phase III completed), ACP-101 for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome (Phase III completed), and ACP-204 for Alzheimer’s disease and Lewy-body dementia psychosis (Phase II completed); collectively these address indications with an estimated addressable market of >$8 billion in the U.S. alone.
As of the latest 10-Q, ACAD held $450 million of cash and marketable securities, giving it roughly 18 months of runway at current burn rates; R&D expense averaged $120 million annually, reflecting a heavy investment in late-stage trials.
The CNS biotech sector is being propelled by an aging population, rising prevalence of neurodegenerative disorders, and favorable regulatory pathways for rare-disease therapies, all of which create a supportive macro environment for ACAD’s focus areas.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of ACAD’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (261.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 62.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.15 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -5.88pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 68.74% (prev 47.82%; Δ 20.93pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 198.9m <= Net Income 261.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-203.2m) to EBITDA (117.3m) ratio: -1.73 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.02 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (170.7m) change vs 12m ago 2.69% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 91.92% (prev 91.61%; Δ 0.31pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 90.75% (prev 95.12%; Δ -4.37pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -0.61 (EBITDA TTM 117.3m / Interest Expense TTM -170.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -6.26
| (A) 0.54 = (Total Current Assets 1.08b - Total Current Liabilities 356.6m) / Total Assets 1.33b |
| (B) -1.57 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.09b / Total Assets 1.33b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.57 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 103.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.15b |
| (D) -5.04 = Book Value of Equity -2.09b / Total Liabilities 413.5m |
| Total Rating: -6.26 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 86.06
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.04% |
| 3. FCF Margin 18.89% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.06 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -1.73 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 72.09)% |
| 7. RoE 32.27% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 92.81% |
| 9. EPS Trend 77.12% |
What is the price of ACAD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.06%, over one month by +7.44%, over three months by +25.23% and over the past year by +59.98%.
Is ACAD a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ACAD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 29.8 | 11.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 29.8 | 11.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 28.7 | 7.6% |
ACAD Fundamental Data Overview December 27, 2025
P/E Trailing = 17.9806
P/E Forward = 43.1034
P/S = 4.5029
P/B = 5.1403
P/EG = -0.42
Beta = 0.672
Revenue TTM = 1.05b USD
EBIT TTM = 103.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 117.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 54.8m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 54.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -203.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.92b USD (4.72b + Debt 54.8m - CCE 847.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.61 (Ebit TTM 103.2m / Interest Expense TTM -170.4m)
FCF Yield = 5.04% (FCF TTM 197.8m / Enterprise Value 3.92b)
FCF Margin = 18.89% (FCF TTM 197.8m / Revenue TTM 1.05b)
Net Margin = 24.94% (Net Income TTM 261.2m / Revenue TTM 1.05b)
Gross Margin = 91.92% ((Revenue TTM 1.05b - Cost of Revenue TTM 84.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 92.23% (prev 92.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.95 (Enterprise Value 3.92b / Total Assets 1.33b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 16.55% (Interest Expense 9.07m / Debt 54.8m)
Taxrate = -60.96% (out of range, set to none) (-27.2m / 44.6m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 3.02 (Total Current Assets 1.08b / Total Current Liabilities 356.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 54.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 917.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.73 (Net Debt -203.2m / EBITDA 117.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.03 (Net Debt -203.2m / FCF TTM 197.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 809.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.63% (Net Income 261.2m / Total Assets 1.33b)
RoE = 32.27% (Net Income TTM 261.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 809.4m)
RoCE = 11.95% (EBIT 103.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 809.4m + L.T.Debt 54.8m))
RoIC = 81.19% (EBIT 103.2m / (Assets 1.33b - Curr.Liab 356.6m - Cash 847.0m))
WACC = 9.10% (E(4.72b)/V(4.77b) * Re(9.21%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.36% ; FCFE base≈199.7m ; Y1≈131.1m ; Y5≈60.0m
Fair Price DCF = 5.79 (DCF Value 979.6m / Shares Outstanding 169.2m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 77.12 | EPS CAGR: 57.52% | SUE: 1.27 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 92.81 | Revenue CAGR: 22.35% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.81 | Chg30d=-0.006 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-1.2% | Growth Revenue=+11.3%
Additional Sources for ACAD Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle