(ACGL) Arch Capital - Overview
Stock: Insurance, Reinsurance, Mortgage Insurance
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 24.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.78% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.31 |
| Alpha | 3.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.396 |
| Beta Downside | 0.471 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.43% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.68 |
Description: ACGL Arch Capital February 11, 2026
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACGL) is a Bermuda-based insurer and reinsurer operating across North America, Europe, Australia and the Caribbean. Its three business lines are Insurance (commercial auto, liability, property, workers’ comp, marine, aviation, specialty and Lloyd’s syndicates), Reinsurance (casualty, marine, aviation, property catastrophe and specialty) and Mortgage (U.S. primary mortgage insurance and related reinsurance). The company distributes its products through a network of independent retail and wholesale brokers.
Key recent metrics (Q3 2024):
• Net written premium grew 5.2% YoY to $2.48 bn, driven by strong demand for commercial lines and a hardening property market.
• Combined ratio in the Insurance segment improved to 92.8% (down from 95.4% a year earlier), reflecting tighter underwriting and lower loss frequency.
• Mortgage segment loss ratio held at 42.1% despite higher delinquency rates in the U.S. housing market, supported by the agency’s focus on FNMA/FHLMC-backed loans.
• Return on equity (ROE) for the full year 2023 was 13.6%, above the industry average of ~11%, indicating efficient capital deployment.
Assumption: these figures are taken from Arch’s publicly filed earnings releases and reflect management-reported results; any subsequent quarter could adjust the trends.
Sector drivers that will likely influence ACGL’s performance include: the ongoing “hard market” in property-casualty insurance, which is tightening capacity and allowing premium expansion; persistent elevated interest rates that boost investment income but also increase mortgage-related credit risk; and the frequency of climate-related catastrophes, which can pressure reinsurance loss reserves.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of ACGL’s valuation and risk profile, you might find ValueRay’s free research toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 4.40b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 6.34b > Net Income 4.40b |
| Net Debt (2.73b) to EBITDA (3.91b): 0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities) |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (376.1m) vs 12m ago -1.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.60% > 18% (prev 0.35%; Δ 3425 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.38% > 50% (prev 23.88%; Δ -4.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 25.01 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.91b / Interest Expense TTM 148.0m) |
Altman Z''
| A: error (Total Current Assets 7.51b - Total Current Liabilities none) / Total Assets 79.19b |
| B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 25.82b / Total Assets 79.19b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 3.70b / Avg Total Assets 75.05b) |
| D: error (Book Value of Equity 0.0 / Total Liabilities none) |
Beneish M
| DSRI: none (Receivables none/16.05b, Revenue 14.54b/16.93b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 34.60% / 35.07%) |
| AQI: none (AQ_t none / AQ_t-1 none) |
| SGI: 0.86 (Revenue 14.54b / 16.93b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 4.40b - CFO 6.34b) / TA 79.19b) |
| Beneish M-Score: cannot calculate (missing components) |
What is the price of ACGL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.42%, over one month by +8.53%, over three months by +7.16% and over the past year by +11.38%.
Is ACGL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ACGL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 108.1 | 9.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 108.1 | 9.8% |
ACGL Fundamental Data Overview February 13, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.4384
P/S = 1.7943
P/B = 1.5144
P/EG = 2.24
Revenue TTM = 14.54b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.70b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.91b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.73b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 2.73b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = 2.73b USD (using Total Debt 2.73b, CCE unavailable)
Enterprise Value = 38.49b USD (35.76b + Debt 2.73b - (null CCE))
Interest Coverage Ratio = 25.01 (Ebit TTM 3.70b / Interest Expense TTM 148.0m)
EV/FCF = 6.11x (Enterprise Value 38.49b / FCF TTM 6.29b)
FCF Yield = 16.36% (FCF TTM 6.29b / Enterprise Value 38.49b)
FCF Margin = 43.29% (FCF TTM 6.29b / Revenue TTM 14.54b)
Net Margin = 30.25% (Net Income TTM 4.40b / Revenue TTM 14.54b)
Gross Margin = 34.60% ((Revenue TTM 14.54b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 40.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.49 (Enterprise Value 38.49b / Total Assets 79.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.39% (Interest Expense 38.0m / Debt 2.73b)
Taxrate = 6.67% (340.0m / 5.10b)
NOPAT = 3.46b (EBIT 3.70b * (1 - 6.67%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 7.51b / Total Current Liabilities none)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 2.73b / totalStockholderEquity, two quarters ago 23.72b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.70 (Net Debt 2.73b / EBITDA 3.91b)
Debt / FCF = 0.43 (Net Debt 2.73b / FCF TTM 6.29b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.86% (Net Income 4.40b / Total Assets 79.19b)
RoE = 19.74% (Net Income TTM 4.40b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.28b)
RoCE = 14.80% (EBIT 3.70b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.28b + L.T.Debt 2.73b))
RoIC = 14.01% (NOPAT 3.46b / Invested Capital 24.67b)
WACC = 6.95% (E(35.76b)/V(38.49b) * Re(7.38%) + D(2.73b)/V(38.49b) * Rd(1.39%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 7.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.49%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.76% ; FCFF base≈6.46b ; Y1≈7.97b ; Y5≈13.58b
Fair Price DCF = 802.7 (EV 290.89b - Net Debt 2.73b = Equity 288.16b / Shares 359.0m; r=6.95% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 59.63 | EPS CAGR: 30.44% | SUE: 1.38 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 97.03 | Revenue CAGR: 30.85% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.44 | Chg30d=-0.006 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.36 | Chg30d=+0.039 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=-4.8% | Growth Revenue=+2.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.18 | Chg30d=+0.085 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+8.7% | Growth Revenue=+4.9%