ACGL Stock Analysis: Arch Capital | NASDAQ
Insurance - Diversified | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 32.355m USD | 12M Return: 3.2% | BMG0450A1053 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 365M
EPS Trend: 71.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 94.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is a Bermuda-based financial services company that provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance (offering commercial automobile, multiperil, financial and professional liability, casualty, property and specialty, and workers compensation coverage), Reinsurance (providing casualty, marine and aviation, property catastrophe, and other specialty products), and Mortgage (offering U.S. primary mortgage insurance predominantly on loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, credit-risk transfer reinsurance, and international mortgage insurance). Arch distributes its products through licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda, the company is classified within the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry, and Bermuda serves as a major global hub for insurance and reinsurance carriers due to its specialized regulatory framework and tax environment.
- Mortgage insurance losses rise as US home prices decline
- Reinsurance pricing strengthens following elevated catastrophe losses
- Insurance segment margins expand on disciplined rate increases
| Net Income: 4.69b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -90.33% < 20% (prev -89.91%; Δ -0.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 6.10b > Net Income 4.69b |
| Net Debt (-5.78b) to EBITDA (5.60b): -1.03 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (348.8m) vs 12m ago -8.19% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.19% > 18% (prev 33.51%; Δ 12.68% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 23.42% > 50% (prev 24.20%; Δ -0.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 34.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.44b / Interest Expense TTM 156.0m) |
| A: -0.20 (Total Current Assets 35.8b - Total Current Liabilities 53.1b) / Total Assets 85.2b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 29.1b / Total Assets 85.2b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 5.44b / Avg Total Assets 82.0b) |
| D: 0.39 (Book Value of Equity 24.0b / Total Liabilities 61.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.64 = B |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 96.08 with a total of 2,235,963 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.93%, over one month by +0.39%, over three months by -5.81% and over the past year by +3.20%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 93.60 (which is 2.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Arch Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ACGL.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 111.1 | 15.6% |
P/E Trailing = 7.4194
P/E Forward = 9.6432
P/S = 1.6812
P/B = 1.3996
P/EG = 1.0547
Revenue TTM = 19.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.44b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.60b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 4.29b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -5.78b USD (calculated: Debt 4.29b - CCE 10.1b)
Enterprise Value = 26.6b USD (32.4b + Debt 4.29b - CCE 10.1b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 34.90 (Ebit TTM 5.44b / Interest Expense TTM 156.0m)
EV/FCF = 4.39x (Enterprise Value 26.6b / FCF TTM 6.05b)
FCF Yield = 22.79% (FCF TTM 6.05b / Enterprise Value 26.6b)
FCF Margin = 31.54% (FCF TTM 6.05b / Revenue TTM 19.2b)
Net Margin = 24.44% (Net Income TTM 4.69b / Revenue TTM 19.2b)
Gross Margin = 46.19% ((Revenue TTM 19.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 50.89% (prev 52.10%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.31 (Enterprise Value 26.6b / Total Assets 85.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.64% (Interest Expense 156.0m / Debt 4.29b)
Taxrate = 12.77% (687.0m / 5.38b)
NOPAT = 4.75b (EBIT 5.44b * (1 - 12.77%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 35.8b / Total Current Liabilities 53.1b)
Debt / Equity = 0.18 (Debt 4.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 24.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.03 (Net Debt -5.78b / EBITDA 5.60b)
Debt / FCF = -0.95 (Net Debt -5.78b / FCF TTM 6.05b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.72% (Net Income 4.69b / Total Assets 85.2b)
RoE = 19.52% (Net Income TTM 4.69b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.0b)
RoCE = 19.22% (EBIT 5.44b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.0b + L.T.Debt 4.29b))
RoIC = 15.28% (NOPAT 4.75b / Invested Capital 31.1b)
WACC = 5.35% (E(32.4b)/V(36.6b) * Re(5.64%) + D(4.29b)/V(36.6b) * Rd(3.64%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 5.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -78.72 | Cagr: -3.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.28% ; FCFF base≈6.08b ; Y1≈6.05b ; Y5≈6.28b
[DCF] Fair Price = 303.9 (EV 97.9b - Net Debt -5.78b = Equity 104b / Shares 341.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -1.18% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 71.23 | EPS CAGR: 7.42% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.78 | Revenue CAGR: 19.12% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.03 | Chg30d=+10.06% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.51 | Chg30d=+1.45% | Revisions=+65% | GrowthEPS=-3.4% | GrowthRev=-4.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.76 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=-11% | GrowthEPS=+2.6% | GrowthRev=+1.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +18% (up=28, down=19)