ADP Stock Analysis: Automatic Data Processing | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 108.528m USD | 12M Return: -4.1% | US0530151036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 541M
EPS Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 10
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a global provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions, organized into two segments: Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services. The Employer Services segment serves small, mid-sized, and large businesses through platforms such as RUN Powered by ADP (for small business payroll, HR, and compliance), ADP Workforce Now (a mid-market HCM suite), and ADP Lyric HCM (an enterprise platform spanning HR, payroll, talent, and analytics). The PEO Services segment operates under the ADP TotalSource brand, delivering HR outsourcing through a co-employment arrangement, complemented by benefits administration, risk management, safety, and workers compensation support.
ADPs business model is anchored in subscription-based SaaS delivery for HCM software, with the PEO segment adding fee-based outsourcing revenue and shared employer liability for client workforces. Founded in 1949 and headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey, ADP is classified within the GICS Industrials sector under the Human Resource & Employment Services sub-industry, and is considered a large-cap stock that has been listed on the NASDAQ since 1983.
- Interest on client funds revenue falls as Fed cuts rates
- Workforce Now and Lyric HCM bookings drive Employer Services growth
- PEO TotalSource margins pressured by benefits and wage inflation
| Net Income: 4.41b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -188.7% < 20% (prev 9.60%; Δ -198.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 5.32b > Net Income 4.41b |
| Net Debt (1.35b) to EBITDA (6.35b): 0.21 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (399.4m) vs 12m ago -2.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.19% > 18% (prev 50.48%; Δ -2.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.66% > 50% (prev 38.53%; Δ -0.87% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.77 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.86b / Interest Expense TTM 459.2m) |
| A: -0.66 (Total Current Assets 8.60b - Total Current Liabilities 50.0b) / Total Assets 63.2b |
| B: 0.43 (Retained Earnings 27.0b / Total Assets 63.2b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 5.86b / Avg Total Assets 58.3b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 6.03b / Total Liabilities 57.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.12 = D |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 3.52b/3.58b, Revenue 21.9b/20.6b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 50.48% / 48.19%) |
| AQI: 4.98 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 21.9b / 20.6b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 4.41b - CFO 5.32b) / TA 63.2b) |
| Beneish M = -0.64 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of September 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 271.22 with a total of 6,598,271 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.10%, over one month by +1.35%, over three months by +24.97% and over the past year by -4.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 260.00 (which is 4.1% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Automatic Data Processing has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.28. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ADP.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 287.6 | 6% |
P/E Trailing = 25.2486
P/E Forward = 22.5734
P/S = 4.9449
P/B = 18.2145
P/EG = 2.5652
Revenue TTM = 21.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.86b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.96b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 5.58b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 306.7m
Net Debt = 1.35b USD (calculated: Debt 5.58b - CCE 4.23b)
Enterprise Value = 110b USD (109b + Debt 5.58b - CCE 4.23b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.77 (Ebit TTM 5.86b / Interest Expense TTM 459.2m)
EV/FCF = 22.07x (Enterprise Value 110b / FCF TTM 4.98b)
FCF Yield = 4.53% (FCF TTM 4.98b / Enterprise Value 110b)
FCF Margin = 22.69% (FCF TTM 4.98b / Revenue TTM 21.9b)
Net Margin = 20.11% (Net Income TTM 4.41b / Revenue TTM 21.9b)
Gross Margin = 48.19% ((Revenue TTM 21.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 52.97% (prev 48.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.74 (Enterprise Value 110b / Total Assets 63.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.23% (Interest Expense 459.2m / Debt 5.58b)
Taxrate = 22.98% (1.32b / 5.73b)
NOPAT = 4.52b (EBIT 5.86b * (1 - 22.98%))
Current Ratio = 0.17 (Total Current Assets 8.60b / Total Current Liabilities 50.0b)
Debt / Equity = 0.92 (Debt 5.58b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.21 (Net Debt 1.35b / EBITDA 6.35b)
Debt / FCF = 0.27 (Net Debt 1.35b / FCF TTM 4.98b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.57% (Net Income 4.41b / Total Assets 63.2b)
RoE = 70.20% (Net Income TTM 4.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.29b)
RoCE = 52.11% (EBIT 5.86b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.29b + L.T.Debt 4.96b))
RoIC = 37.41% (NOPAT 4.52b / Invested Capital 12.1b)
WACC = 6.18% (E(109b)/V(114b) * Re(6.17%) + D(5.58b)/V(114b) * Rd(8.23%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 6.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.81 | Cagr: -1.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.00% ; FCFF base≈4.90b ; Y1≈5.09b ; Y5≈5.79b
[DCF] Fair Price = 221.8 (EV 89.5b - Net Debt 1.35b = Equity 88.1b / Shares 397.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.37% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.58 | EPS CAGR: 9.90% | SUE: 1.62 | # QB: 10
Revenue Correlation: 99.99 | Revenue CAGR: 6.86% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.77 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=15
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=2.92 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+36% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2027-06-30): EPS=12.26 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+45% | GrowthEPS=+10.2% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
EPS next Year (2028-06-30): EPS=13.40 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+13% | GrowthEPS=+9.3% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=37, down=15)