ADPT Stock Analysis: Adaptive Biotechnologies | NASDAQ

Diagnostics & Research | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.441m USD | 12M Return: 74.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Immune Medicine, Diagnostic Tests, Immunosequencing, Drug Discovery
Total Rating 56
Safety 40
Buy Signal 0.54
Diagnostics & Research
Industry Rotation: -2.6
Market Cap: 3.44B
Avg Turnover: 71.4M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility79.5%
VaR 5th Pctl11.9%
VaR vs Median-8.80%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.09
Rel. Str. IBD90.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group77.6
Character TTM
Beta1.383
Beta Downside0.917
Hurst Exponent0.469
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD72.33%
CAGR/Max DD0.60
CAGR/Mean DD1.52
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ADPT over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.35, "2021-09": -0.4, "2021-12": -0.43, "2022-03": -0.44, "2022-06": -0.37, "2022-09": -0.32, "2022-12": -0.28, "2023-03": -0.4, "2023-06": -0.33, "2023-09": -0.35, "2023-12": -0.3, "2024-03": -0.32, "2024-06": -0.29, "2024-09": -0.22, "2024-12": -0.23, "2025-03": -0.2, "2025-06": -0.17, "2025-09": -0.15, "2025-12": -0.09, "2026-03": -0.13,
Last SUE: 0.80
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ADPT over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 38.505, 2021-09: 39.467, 2021-12: 37.93, 2022-03: 38.62, 2022-06: 43.66, 2022-09: 47.83, 2022-12: 55.198, 2023-03: 37.647, 2023-06: 48.926, 2023-09: 37.919, 2023-12: 45.784, 2024-03: 41.873, 2024-06: 43.19, 2024-09: 46.435, 2024-12: 47.459, 2025-03: 52.443, 2025-06: 58.879, 2025-09: 93.973, 2025-12: 71.681, 2026-03: 70.874,
Rev. CAGR: 19.45%
Rev. Trend: 80.9%
Last SUE: 1.14
Qual. Beats: 5

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Supp Ema20
Rs Leader

Seasonality 7 years of data

Jan -6.6% 0
Feb -5.1% 18
Mar -13.4% 19
Apr -9.2% 55
May -1.0% 0
Jun +13.6% 46
Jul +1.8% 2
Aug +2.2% 16
Sep -0.2% 2
Oct -4.9% 18
Nov +2.2% 2
Dec +4.2% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ: ADPT) is a commercial-stage health care company headquartered in Seattle, Washington, that operates an immune medicine platform used for disease diagnosis and treatment. Its core offering is an immunosequencing platform that combines proprietary chemistry, computational biology, and machine learning to generate clinical immunomics data for decoding the adaptive immune system. The companys flagship diagnostic product, the clonoSEQ test, is used to detect and monitor Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) in cancer patients during and after treatment.

Adaptive serves three primary markets: life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery. Originally incorporated in 2009 as Adaptive TCR Corporation, the company rebranded to its current name in December 2011 and went public on the NASDAQ in June 2019. As a mid-cap stock in the Life Sciences Tools & Services sub-industry, ADPT operates at the intersection of genomics, diagnostics, and therapeutic development, leveraging immune system data for both clinical and research applications.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • clonoSEQ MRD test volume growth accelerates revenue
  • Drug discovery partnerships generate milestone and collaboration revenue
  • Reimbursement coverage expansion unlocks clonoSEQ addressable market
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: -49.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.87 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 69.33% < 20% (prev 89.00%; Δ -19.67% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.05 > 3% & CFO -27.0m > Net Income -49.7m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 3.35 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (155.5m) vs 12m ago 4.24% < -2%
Gross Margin: 75.26% > 18% (prev 62.53%; Δ 12.72% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 58.11% > 50% (prev 37.10%; Δ 21.01% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM -39.0m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m)
Altman Z'' -5.97
A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 291.8m - Total Current Liabilities 87.0m) / Total Assets 505.9m
B: -2.73 (Retained Earnings -1.38b / Total Assets 505.9m)
C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -39.0m / Avg Total Assets 508.4m)
D: 0.77 (Book Value of Equity 216.3m / Total Liabilities 281.7m)
Altman-Z'' = -5.97 = D
Beneish M -3.10
DSRI: 0.71 (Receivables 48.3m/43.6m, Revenue 295.4m/189.5m)
GMI: 0.83 (GM 62.53% / 75.26%)
AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.32)
SGI: 1.56 (Revenue 295.4m / 189.5m)
TATA: -0.04 (NI -49.7m - CFO -27.0m) / TA 505.9m)
Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of ADPT shares?

As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.06 with a total of 1,907,290 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.61%, over one month by +23.37%, over three months by +64.66% and over the past year by +74.34%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.70 (which is 11.2% or 2 ATR below the current price).

Is ADPT a buy, sell or hold?

Adaptive Biotechnologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.25. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ADPT.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ADPT price?
Analysts Target Price 20.3 -3.7%
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.44b (3.44b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/S = 11.6482
P/B = 15.6686
Revenue TTM = 295.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -39.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -22.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 193.9m USD (estimated: total debt 208.2m - short term 14.3m)
Short Term Debt = 14.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 285.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 77.6m
Net Debt = 67.5m USD (calculated: Debt 285.8m - CCE 218.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.51b USD (3.44b + Debt 285.8m - CCE 218.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.31 (Ebit TTM -39.0m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m)
EV/FCF = 218.4x (Enterprise Value 3.51b / FCF TTM 16.1m)
FCF Yield = 0.46% (FCF TTM 16.1m / Enterprise Value 3.51b)
FCF Margin = 5.44% (FCF TTM 16.1m / Revenue TTM 295.4m)
Net Margin = -16.82% (Net Income TTM -49.7m / Revenue TTM 295.4m)
Gross Margin = 75.26% ((Revenue TTM 295.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 73.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.60% (prev 74.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.93 (Enterprise Value 3.51b / Total Assets 505.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.12% (Interest Expense 11.8m / Debt 285.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -30.8m (EBIT -39.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.02 (Total Current Assets 291.8m / Total Current Liabilities 96.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.32 (Debt 285.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 216.3m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -3.06 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 67.5m / EBITDA -22.0m)
 Debt / FCF = 4.20 (Net Debt 67.5m / FCF TTM 16.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 204.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -9.77% (Net Income -49.7m / Total Assets 505.9m)
RoE = -24.26% (Net Income TTM -49.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 204.8m)
RoCE = -9.77% (EBIT -39.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 204.8m + L.T.Debt 193.9m))
 RoIC = -7.36% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -30.8m / Invested Capital 418.5m)
 WACC = 10.27% (E(3.44b)/V(3.73b) * Re(10.85%) + D(285.8m)/V(3.73b) * Rd(4.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.22 | Cagr: 3.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 69.02% ; FCFF base≈16.1m ; Y1≈16.1m ; Y5≈17.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.83 (EV 200.4m - Net Debt 67.5m = Equity 133.0m / Shares 160.0m; r=10.27% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 80.94 | Revenue CAGR: 19.45% | SUE: 1.14 | # QB: 5
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.14 | Chg30d=+2.10% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=+0.63% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=-17.3% | GrowthRev=+3.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=+1.63% | Revisions=+10% | GrowthEPS=+44.7% | GrowthRev=+22.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +14% (up=11, down=8)