(ADPT) Adaptive Biotechnologies - Overview
Stock: Immunosequencing, ClonoSEQ, MRD Testing, Immune Medicine, Clinical Diagnostics
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 81.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.22 |
| Alpha | 75.89 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.379 |
| Beta Downside | 0.912 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 76.72% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.28 |
Description: ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies January 16, 2026
Adaptive Biotechnologies (NASDAQ:ADPT) is a commercial-stage biotech that leverages its proprietary immunosequencing platform-combining chemistry, computational biology, and machine-learning-to generate clinical immunomics data for diagnosing and treating disease, most notably through its clonoSEQ assay for Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) monitoring in cancer patients.
In FY 2023 the company reported approximately $140 million in revenue, a 30 % YoY increase driven largely by expanding clonoSEQ sales and new research-service contracts; cash and short-term investments stood at roughly $350 million, giving it a runway of over three years at current burn rates. These figures are based on the company’s SEC filings and assume no material change in reimbursement policies.
Key growth levers include the accelerating global market for immunotherapy diagnostics (projected CAGR ≈ 12 % through 2030), the strategic partnership with Genentech to co-develop neoantigen-directed T-cell therapies, and the broader trend of personalized medicine driving demand for high-resolution immune profiling. If FDA guidance on MRD testing tightens or if competing platforms achieve lower cost per test, ADPT’s outlook could be materially revised.
For a deeper, data-driven comparison of ADPT’s valuation metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -79.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 78.37% < 20% (prev 124.5%; Δ -46.13% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.12 > 3% & CFO -60.5m > Net Income -79.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.38 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (163.2m) vs 12m ago 10.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 71.84% > 18% (prev 0.58%; Δ 7125 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.18% > 50% (prev 31.74%; Δ 16.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.25 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -57.1m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m) |
Altman Z'' -12.21
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 281.4m - Total Current Liabilities 83.4m) / Total Assets 490.6m |
| B: -2.75 (Retained Earnings -1.35b / Total Assets 490.6m) |
| C: -0.14 (EBIT TTM -73.7m / Avg Total Assets 524.6m) |
| D: -4.71 (Book Value of Equity -1.35b / Total Liabilities 286.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -12.21 = D |
Beneish M -3.12
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 46.3m/40.8m, Revenue 252.8m/177.3m) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 71.84% / 58.46%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.43 (Revenue 252.8m / 177.3m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -79.6m - CFO -60.5m) / TA 490.6m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ADPT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -14.76%, over one month by -2.11%, over three months by +1.35% and over the past year by +96.88%.
Is ADPT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ADPT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20.1 | 27.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20.1 | 27.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.5 | 10.8% |
ADPT Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/B = 13.7106
Revenue TTM = 252.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -73.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -57.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 81.8m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 213.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 158.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.78b USD (2.78b + Debt 213.6m - CCE 212.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.25 (Ebit TTM -73.7m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m)
EV/FCF = -44.11x (Enterprise Value 2.78b / FCF TTM -62.9m)
FCF Yield = -2.27% (FCF TTM -62.9m / Enterprise Value 2.78b)
FCF Margin = -24.90% (FCF TTM -62.9m / Revenue TTM 252.8m)
Net Margin = -31.50% (Net Income TTM -79.6m / Revenue TTM 252.8m)
Gross Margin = 71.84% ((Revenue TTM 252.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 71.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 80.68% (prev 69.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.66 (Enterprise Value 2.78b / Total Assets 490.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.39% (Interest Expense 2.97m / Debt 213.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -58.2m (EBIT -73.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.38 (Total Current Assets 281.4m / Total Current Liabilities 83.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.05 (Debt 213.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 204.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.78 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 158.6m / EBITDA -57.1m)
Debt / FCF = -2.52 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 158.6m / FCF TTM -62.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 194.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -15.18% (Net Income -79.6m / Total Assets 490.6m)
RoE = -40.97% (Net Income TTM -79.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 194.3m)
RoCE = -26.67% (EBIT -73.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 194.3m + L.T.Debt 81.8m))
RoIC = -29.94% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -58.2m / Invested Capital 194.3m)
WACC = 10.29% (E(2.78b)/V(2.99b) * Re(11.0%) + D(213.6m)/V(2.99b) * Rd(1.39%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.11%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -62.9m)
EPS Correlation: 84.51 | EPS CAGR: 107.4% | SUE: 2.36 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 62.82 | Revenue CAGR: 27.37% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.18 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.58 | Chg30d=-0.009 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-18.9% | Growth Revenue=+0.5%