ADTN Stock Analysis: ADTRAN | NASDAQ
Communication Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 581m USD | 12M Return: -25.6% | US00486H1059 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 11.3M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -7.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) is a U.S.-based provider of networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services, operating through two segments: Network Solutions and Services & Support. The company sells broadband access and optical networking gear-including residential gateways, PON ONUs/ONTs, routers, switches, Optical Line Terminals, and optical transport solutions-alongside a software portfolio that includes Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud, MCP, AOE, and ACI-E. Its customer base spans large, medium, and small service providers, alternative operators such as utilities, municipalities and fiber overbuilders, cable/MSOs, SMBs, and distributed enterprises, with sales across the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and other international markets.
Founded in 1985 and headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama, ADTRAN sits within the Communications Equipment sub-industry, supplying the hardware and software that carriers and ISPs use to build and operate fixed broadband networks. Its emphasis on fiber access technologies (GPON, XGS-PON) and carrier-grade Ethernet aligns the company with ongoing fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) buildouts by traditional telcos, cable operators, and new entrants such as municipal and utility fiber providers.
- US BEAD broadband funding accelerates fiber ONT shipments
- Tier 1 carrier capex drives Network Solutions segment growth
- European demand softness pressures international revenue and margins
| Net Income: -26.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.55 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 23.98% < 20% (prev 30.26%; Δ -6.28% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 93.0m > Net Income -26.1m |
| Net Debt (148.2m) to EBITDA (116.2m): 1.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.79 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (80.6m) vs 12m ago 1.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.46% > 18% (prev 37.69%; Δ 0.78% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 96.20% > 50% (prev 80.85%; Δ 15.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.66 > 6 (EBIT TTM 19.1m / Interest Expense TTM 28.8m) |
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 617.8m - Total Current Liabilities 344.8m) / Total Assets 1.15b |
| B: -0.64 (Retained Earnings -736.4m / Total Assets 1.15b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 19.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.18b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 129.5m / Total Liabilities 661.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.22 = B |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 214.8m/181.3m, Revenue 1.14b/983.4m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 37.69% / 38.46%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.14b / 983.4m) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI -26.1m - CFO 93.0m) / TA 1.15b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.87 with a total of 1,161,655 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.76%, over one month by -11.35%, over three months by -50.04% and over the past year by -25.57%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.40 (which is 6.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
ADTRAN has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ADTN.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.7 | 113.5% |
P/E Forward = 12.6904
P/S = 0.5104
P/B = 4.4706
P/EG = 1.8607
Revenue TTM = 1.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 19.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 116.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 218.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 266.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 23.8m
Net Debt = 148.2m USD (calculated: Debt 266.5m - CCE 118.3m)
Enterprise Value = 729.2m USD (581.0m + Debt 266.5m - CCE 118.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.66 (Ebit TTM 19.1m / Interest Expense TTM 28.8m)
EV/FCF = 12.81x (Enterprise Value 729.2m / FCF TTM 56.9m)
FCF Yield = 7.81% (FCF TTM 56.9m / Enterprise Value 729.2m)
FCF Margin = 5.00% (FCF TTM 56.9m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Net Margin = -2.29% (Net Income TTM -26.1m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Gross Margin = 38.46% ((Revenue TTM 1.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 700.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.97% (prev 39.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.63 (Enterprise Value 729.2m / Total Assets 1.15b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.81% (Interest Expense 28.8m / Debt 266.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 15.1m (EBIT 19.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.79 (Total Current Assets 617.8m / Total Current Liabilities 344.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.06 (Debt 266.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 129.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.28 (Net Debt 148.2m / EBITDA 116.2m)
Debt / FCF = 2.60 (Net Debt 148.2m / FCF TTM 56.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 138.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.20% (Net Income -26.1m / Total Assets 1.15b)
RoE = -18.82% (Net Income TTM -26.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 138.6m)
RoCE = 5.33% (EBIT 19.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 138.6m + L.T.Debt 218.8m))
RoIC = 1.99% (NOPAT 15.1m / Invested Capital 755.3m)
WACC = 11.65% (E(581.0m)/V(847.5m) * Re(13.08%) + D(266.5m)/V(847.5m) * Rd(10.81%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 97.54 | Cagr: 1.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 61.86% ; FCFF base≈60.9m ; Y1≈53.4m ; Y5≈43.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 3.71 (EV 450.9m - Net Debt 148.2m = Equity 302.7m / Shares 81.5m; r=11.65% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -14.97% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -7.23 | Revenue CAGR: -0.85% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=-76.14% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-48.98% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+25.5% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=-23.30% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+102.0% | GrowthRev=+7.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -84% (up=0, down=16)