(ADTN) ADTRAN - Ratings and Ratios
Optical Terminal, Gateway, Switch, Router, Cloud Edge
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 62.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 85.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.37% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.17 |
| Alpha | -24.32 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.30 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.487 |
| Beta | 1.674 |
| Beta Downside | 1.553 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.34% |
| Mean DD | 55.13% |
| Median DD | 57.91% |
Description: ADTN ADTRAN October 23, 2025
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTN) designs, manufactures, and supports networking and communications platforms for a broad customer base that includes traditional telecom carriers, alternative service providers (e.g., utilities and municipalities), cable/MSOs, and enterprise customers. The firm operates two reporting segments-Network Solutions and Services & Support-and offers a portfolio ranging from residential gateways and PON ONUs/ONTs to edge-cloud appliances, carrier-grade Ethernet interfaces, and a suite of software-defined networking tools (e.g., Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud).
Key recent metrics (as of Q2 2024) show ADTRAN’s revenue growing ~7% YoY to $442 million, with operating margin expanding to 9.5% driven by higher demand for XGS-PON deployments and a shift toward managed services that generate recurring revenue. The company’s backlog, a leading forward-looking indicator in the telecom-equipment sector, stood at roughly $1.1 billion, reflecting continued broadband-capacity upgrades in the United States and Europe. Macro-level drivers include sustained CAPEX from fiber-overbuilders and the rollout of 5G-enabled fixed wireless access, both of which favor vendors that can deliver integrated optical-and-packet solutions.
For a deeper, data-rich perspective on ADTRAN’s valuation and how its growth catalysts compare to peers, consider exploring the analytics platform ValueRay, which aggregates real-time financial and market signals to help you assess the stock’s risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (-88.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 62.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 28.53% (prev 36.90%; Δ -8.36pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 92.1m > Net Income -88.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (150.2m) to EBITDA (35.5m) ratio: 4.23 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.96 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (79.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.94% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.92% (prev 34.86%; Δ 3.05pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 83.41% (prev 71.11%; Δ 12.30pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -3.45 (EBITDA TTM 35.5m / Interest Expense TTM 19.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.76
| (A) 0.24 = (Total Current Assets 603.1m - Total Current Liabilities 307.8m) / Total Assets 1.21b |
| (B) -0.60 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -728.7m / Total Assets 1.21b |
| (C) -0.05 = EBIT TTM -67.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.24b |
| (D) -0.98 = Book Value of Equity -653.3m / Total Liabilities 665.2m |
| Total Rating: -1.76 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.86
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.11% |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.63% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.72 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.23 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -30.89)% |
| 7. RoE -60.99% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 30.51% |
| 9. EPS Trend -36.21% |
What is the price of ADTN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.58%, over one month by +3.36%, over three months by -17.80% and over the past year by -6.21%.
Is ADTN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ADTN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.7 | 52.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.7 | 52.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.2 | -13.2% |
ADTN Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Forward = 18.018
P/S = 0.6122
P/B = 4.4873
P/EG = 11.04
Beta = 1.382
Revenue TTM = 1.04b USD
EBIT TTM = -67.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 35.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 217.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.15m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 243.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 150.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 783.9m USD (633.7m + Debt 243.8m - CCE 93.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.45 (Ebit TTM -67.8m / Interest Expense TTM 19.7m)
FCF Yield = 6.11% (FCF TTM 47.9m / Enterprise Value 783.9m)
FCF Margin = 4.63% (FCF TTM 47.9m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Net Margin = -8.50% (Net Income TTM -88.0m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Gross Margin = 37.92% ((Revenue TTM 1.04b - Cost of Revenue TTM 642.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.34% (prev 37.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 783.9m / Total Assets 1.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.26% (Interest Expense 5.50m / Debt 243.8m)
Taxrate = -18.34% (negative due to tax credits) (1.20m / -6.55m)
NOPAT = -80.3m (EBIT -67.8m * (1 - -18.34%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.96 (Total Current Assets 603.1m / Total Current Liabilities 307.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.72 (Debt 243.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 141.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.23 (Net Debt 150.2m / EBITDA 35.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.13 (Net Debt 150.2m / FCF TTM 47.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 144.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.28% (Net Income -88.0m / Total Assets 1.21b)
RoE = -60.99% (Net Income TTM -88.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 144.3m)
RoCE = -18.73% (EBIT -67.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 144.3m + L.T.Debt 217.9m))
RoIC = -21.35% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -80.3m / Invested Capital 376.0m)
WACC = 9.54% (E(633.7m)/V(877.5m) * Re(12.18%) + D(243.8m)/V(877.5m) * Rd(2.26%) * (1-Tc(-0.18)))
Discount Rate = 12.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.74%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 55.98% ; FCFE base≈38.6m ; Y1≈26.9m ; Y5≈13.8m
Fair Price DCF = 1.95 (DCF Value 156.0m / Shares Outstanding 80.1m; 5y FCF grow -35.60% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -36.21 | EPS CAGR: -16.88% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 30.51 | Revenue CAGR: 17.19% | SUE: 1.84 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+206.6% | Growth Revenue=+8.5%
Additional Sources for ADTN Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle