ADTN Stock Analysis: ADTRAN | NASDAQ
Communication Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.044m USD | 12M Return: 37.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 28.9M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -45.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) is a U.S.-based provider of networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services, operating through two segments: Network Solutions and Services & Support. The company sells broadband access and optical networking gear-including residential gateways, PON ONUs/ONTs, routers, switches, Optical Line Terminals, and optical transport solutions-alongside a software portfolio that includes Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud, MCP, AOE, and ACI-E. Its customer base spans large, medium, and small service providers, alternative operators such as utilities, municipalities and fiber overbuilders, cable/MSOs, SMBs, and distributed enterprises, with sales across the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and other international markets.
Founded in 1985 and headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama, ADTRAN sits within the Communications Equipment sub-industry, supplying the hardware and software that carriers and ISPs use to build and operate fixed broadband networks. Its emphasis on fiber access technologies (GPON, XGS-PON) and carrier-grade Ethernet aligns the company with ongoing fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) buildouts by traditional telcos, cable operators, and new entrants such as municipal and utility fiber providers.
- US BEAD broadband funding accelerates fiber ONT shipments
- Tier 1 carrier capex drives Network Solutions segment growth
- European demand softness pressures international revenue and margins
| Net Income: -35.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 24.51% < 20% (prev 32.66%; Δ -8.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 99.3m > Net Income -35.7m |
| Net Debt (146.2m) to EBITDA (105.0m): 1.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (80.3m) vs 12m ago 0.99% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.57% > 18% (prev 37.41%; Δ 1.16% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 94.37% > 50% (prev 79.14%; Δ 15.23% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.1m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m) |
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 634.2m - Total Current Liabilities 359.2m) / Total Assets 1.19b |
| B: -0.62 (Retained Earnings -731.3m / Total Assets 1.19b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 10.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.19b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 137.5m / Total Liabilities 678.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.22 = B |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 228.7m/182.8m, Revenue 1.12b/944.3m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 37.41% / 38.57%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.40) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 1.12b / 944.3m) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI -35.7m - CFO 99.3m) / TA 1.19b) |
| Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.87 with a total of 1,899,808 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.41%, over one month by -19.66%, over three months by -6.26% and over the past year by +37.79%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.60 (which is 9.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
ADTRAN has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ADTN.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.5 | 51.5% |
P/E Forward = 24.5098
P/S = 0.9304
P/B = 7.4976
P/EG = 1.8607
Revenue TTM = 1.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 105.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 218.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 268.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 24.9m
Net Debt = 146.2m USD (calculated: Debt 268.3m - CCE 122.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.19b USD (1.04b + Debt 268.3m - CCE 122.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.35 (Ebit TTM 10.1m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m)
EV/FCF = 20.43x (Enterprise Value 1.19b / FCF TTM 58.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.90% (FCF TTM 58.3m / Enterprise Value 1.19b)
FCF Margin = 5.19% (FCF TTM 58.3m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Net Margin = -3.18% (Net Income TTM -35.7m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Gross Margin = 38.57% ((Revenue TTM 1.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 689.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.49% (prev 39.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.00 (Enterprise Value 1.19b / Total Assets 1.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.86% (Interest Expense 29.1m / Debt 268.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 7.96m (EBIT 10.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.77 (Total Current Assets 634.2m / Total Current Liabilities 359.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.95 (Debt 268.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 137.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.39 (Net Debt 146.2m / EBITDA 105.0m)
Debt / FCF = 2.51 (Net Debt 146.2m / FCF TTM 58.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 148.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.00% (Net Income -35.7m / Total Assets 1.19b)
RoE = -24.02% (Net Income TTM -35.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 148.6m)
RoCE = 2.74% (EBIT 10.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 148.6m + L.T.Debt 218.4m))
RoIC = 1.02% (NOPAT 7.96m / Invested Capital 776.8m)
WACC = 13.07% (E(1.04b)/V(1.31b) * Re(14.22%) + D(268.3m)/V(1.31b) * Rd(10.86%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.56 | Cagr: 1.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.60% ; FCFF base≈56.0m ; Y1≈61.3m ; Y5≈77.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.19 (EV 647.2m - Net Debt 146.2m = Equity 501.0m / Shares 81.0m; r=13.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 10.95% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -45.37 | Revenue CAGR: -6.25% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=+12.54% | Revisions=+29% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=-0.88% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=+13.14% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+146.0% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=+0.44% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+34.3% | GrowthRev=+9.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +38% (up=13, down=5)