ADV Stock Analysis: Advantage Solutions | NASDAQ
Advertising Agencies | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 548m USD | 12M Return: 13.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 6.86M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -92.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 6.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Advantage Solutions Inc. is a U.S.-headquartered outsourced services provider that helps consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers and retailers execute sales, marketing, merchandising, and in-store activation programs. The company operates through three reporting segments-Branded Services (sales, merchandising, and omni-commerce support for branded manufacturers), Experiential Services (in-store and digital sampling, demonstrations, and experiential events), and Retailer Services (in-store execution, private label strategy, retail media, resets, audits, and circular/advertising services). It serves clients across grocery, mass, club, pharmacy, convenience, and other retail channels in North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe, and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri, having been founded in 1987 and renamed from Karman Holding Corp. in 2016.
The business model is a B2B services model in which ADV is paid by CPG manufacturers and retailers to deploy a large field workforce that executes merchandising, sampling, and marketing activities on their behalf, generating revenue primarily through fees and program-based contracts rather than through the sale of consumer products. The outsourced retail services space in which ADV competes includes other field marketing, brokerage, and retail media execution firms that support brands at the shelf and across digital retail channels.
- CPG trade marketing spend swings hit Branded Services revenue
- Labor cost inflation pressures experiential and merchandising margins
- Retail media expansion drives Retailer Services segment growth
| Net Income: -243.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.94% < 20% (prev 12.39%; Δ -1.46% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 111.2m > Net Income -243.4m |
| Net Debt (1.43b) to EBITDA (78.0m): 18.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.95 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (13.1m) vs 12m ago 1.63% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 9.76% > 18% (prev 12.66%; Δ -2.89% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 128.7% > 50% (prev 117.0%; Δ 11.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM -125.4m / Interest Expense TTM 139.4m) |
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 804.8m - Total Current Liabilities 412.0m) / Total Assets 2.56b |
| B: -1.15 (Retained Earnings -2.94b / Total Assets 2.56b) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -125.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.79b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 478.0m / Total Liabilities 2.09b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.80 = D |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 572.6m/641.7m, Revenue 3.59b/3.53b) |
| GMI: 1.30 (GM 12.66% / 9.76%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.68) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 3.59b / 3.53b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -243.4m - CFO 111.2m) / TA 2.56b) |
| Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 40.20 with a total of 162,045 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.45%, over one month by +3.34%, over three months by +44.03% and over the past year by +13.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 32.10 (which is 20.1% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
Advantage Solutions has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ADV.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.5 | 5.7% |
P/S = 0.1525
P/B = 1.1064
Revenue TTM = 3.59b USD
EBIT TTM = -125.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 78.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.52b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 25.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.58b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 32.1m
Net Debt = 1.43b USD (calculated: Debt 1.58b - CCE 143.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.98b USD (547.5m + Debt 1.58b - CCE 143.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.90 (Ebit TTM -125.4m / Interest Expense TTM 139.4m)
EV/FCF = 31.99x (Enterprise Value 1.98b / FCF TTM 62.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.13% (FCF TTM 62.0m / Enterprise Value 1.98b)
FCF Margin = 1.73% (FCF TTM 62.0m / Revenue TTM 3.59b)
Net Margin = -6.78% (Net Income TTM -243.4m / Revenue TTM 3.59b)
Gross Margin = 9.76% ((Revenue TTM 3.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.24b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.49% (prev 8.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.77 (Enterprise Value 1.98b / Total Assets 2.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.83% (Interest Expense 139.4m / Debt 1.58b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -99.1m (EBIT -125.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.95 (Total Current Assets 804.8m / Total Current Liabilities 412.0m)
Debt / Equity = 3.30 (Debt 1.58b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 478.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.39 (Net Debt 1.43b / EBITDA 78.0m)
Debt / FCF = 23.15 (Net Debt 1.43b / FCF TTM 62.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 606.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.73% (Net Income -243.4m / Total Assets 2.56b)
RoE = -40.17% (Net Income TTM -243.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 606.0m)
RoCE = -5.90% (EBIT -125.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 606.0m + L.T.Debt 1.52b))
RoIC = -4.87% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -99.1m / Invested Capital 2.03b)
WACC = 8.38% (E(547.5m)/V(2.13b) * Re(12.42%) + D(1.58b)/V(2.13b) * Rd(8.83%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 1.18 | Cagr: -1.77%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.88% ; FCFF base≈40.0m ; Y1≈45.8m ; Y5≈67.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.01b - Net Debt 1.43b = -425.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -91.99 | Revenue CAGR: -5.83% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.51 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.32 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.71 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+241.2% | GrowthRev=+1.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.34 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+98.3% | GrowthRev=+0.6%