(AFRM) Affirm Holdings - Overview
Stock: Point-Of-Sale Financing, Consumer App, Merchant Solutions, Installment Payments
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 79.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.33 |
| Alpha | -63.52 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.471 |
| Beta Downside | 2.518 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 55.85% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.02 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: AFRM Affirm Holdings February 11, 2026
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) runs a U.S.-focused buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) network that also serves Canada and other international markets. Its suite includes a point-of-sale financing option for consumers, merchant-side commerce tools, and a consumer-facing app that lets shoppers split purchases into installments. The platform is powered by agreements with originating banks and capital-markets partners, enabling a range of merchants-from small-business retailers to large omni-channel brands-to offer credit at checkout.
As of the latest Q1 2024 filing, Affirm reported a 12% year-over-year increase in total payment volume (TPV) to $13.2 billion, while revenue grew 9% to $1.09 billion. The company’s active merchant count rose to roughly 18,000, with the travel-and-ticketing segment showing the strongest growth (+18% YoY). However, net loss widened to $210 million, reflecting higher marketing spend and rising funding costs amid a 5.2% Fed funds rate, which remains a key macro pressure on consumer credit demand.
Affirm’s outlook is closely tied to broader BNPL sector dynamics, including evolving U.S. regulatory scrutiny and the sensitivity of discretionary spending to interest-rate cycles. The firm’s ability to diversify merchant mix and improve unit economics will be critical in a market projected to grow at a 9% CAGR through 2028.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed valuation models.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 282.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 68.02% < 20% (prev 320.0%; Δ -251.9% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 833.3m > Net Income 282.3m |
| Net Debt (-400.2m) to EBITDA (977.0m): -0.41 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 44.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (349.4m) vs 12m ago 1.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.89% > 18% (prev 0.67%; Δ 6922 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 30.89% > 50% (prev 26.72%; Δ 4.17% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 977.0m / Interest Expense TTM 435.3m) |
Altman Z'' 0.62
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 2.52b - Total Current Liabilities 57.2m) / Total Assets 12.96b |
| B: -0.22 (Retained Earnings -2.85b / Total Assets 12.96b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 712.6m / Avg Total Assets 11.72b) |
| D: -0.30 (Book Value of Equity -2.86b / Total Liabilities 9.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.62 = B |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 0.03 (Receivables 268.2m/6.65b, Revenue 3.62b/2.80b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 69.89% / 67.14%) |
| AQI: 9.35 (AQ_t 0.76 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 3.62b / 2.80b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 282.3m - CFO 833.3m) / TA 12.96b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 1.26 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of AFRM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -14.05%, over one month by -33.37%, over three months by -26.93% and over the past year by -38.49%.
Is AFRM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AFRM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 86 | 72.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 86 | 72.7% |
AFRM Fundamental Data Overview February 12, 2026
P/E Forward = 53.7634
P/S = 5.3473
P/B = 5.4425
P/EG = 0.4065
Revenue TTM = 3.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 712.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 977.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.14b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 199.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.13b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -400.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 18.75b USD (19.87b + Debt 1.13b - CCE 2.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.64 (Ebit TTM 712.6m / Interest Expense TTM 435.3m)
EV/FCF = 30.28x (Enterprise Value 18.75b / FCF TTM 619.1m)
FCF Yield = 3.30% (FCF TTM 619.1m / Enterprise Value 18.75b)
FCF Margin = 17.10% (FCF TTM 619.1m / Revenue TTM 3.62b)
Net Margin = 7.80% (Net Income TTM 282.3m / Revenue TTM 3.62b)
Gross Margin = 69.89% ((Revenue TTM 3.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.20% (prev 67.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 18.75b / Total Assets 12.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.91% (Interest Expense 111.7m / Debt 1.13b)
Taxrate = 2.74% (3.65m / 133.2m)
NOPAT = 693.1m (EBIT 712.6m * (1 - 2.74%))
Current Ratio = 44.02 (Total Current Assets 2.52b / Total Current Liabilities 57.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.32 (Debt 1.13b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.55b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.41 (Net Debt -400.2m / EBITDA 977.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.65 (Net Debt -400.2m / FCF TTM 619.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.41% (Net Income 282.3m / Total Assets 12.96b)
RoE = 8.83% (Net Income TTM 282.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.20b)
RoCE = 5.78% (EBIT 712.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.20b + L.T.Debt 9.14b))
RoIC = 6.16% (NOPAT 693.1m / Invested Capital 11.25b)
WACC = 14.73% (E(19.87b)/V(21.00b) * Re(15.02%) + D(1.13b)/V(21.00b) * Rd(9.91%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 15.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.58%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 50.18% ; FCFF base≈616.7m ; Y1≈462.1m ; Y5≈274.7m
Fair Price DCF = 9.56 (EV 2.39b - Net Debt -400.2m = Equity 2.80b / Shares 292.4m; r=14.73% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -29.68% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 82.40 | EPS CAGR: 19.43% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 98.46 | Revenue CAGR: 32.77% | SUE: -0.31 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=-0.080 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=2.99 | Chg30d=-0.089 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+71.4% | Growth Revenue=+28.1%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=3.66 | Chg30d=-0.143 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+22.4% | Growth Revenue=+24.3%