(AFRM) Affirm Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Payment Network, Installment Loans, Merchant Solutions, Consumer App
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 117% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.92% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.26 |
| Alpha | -28.21 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.55 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.404 |
| Beta | 2.473 |
| Beta Downside | 2.556 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.38% |
| Mean DD | 24.02% |
| Median DD | 23.34% |
Description: AFRM Affirm Holdings October 14, 2025
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) operates a U.S.-centric “buy-now-pay-later” (BNPL) network that also serves Canada and select international markets. Its suite includes a point-of-sale financing option for consumers, a merchant-facing commerce platform, and a consumer app that lets shoppers split purchases into installments.
The firm’s merchant base spans small-business retailers to large omni-channel brands across sectors such as sporting goods, travel, electronics, fashion, and automotive. Agreements with originating banks and capital-markets partners supply the credit needed to fund these installments, while the platform’s data-processing capabilities enable real-time risk assessment.
Key recent metrics (as of Q2 2024) show a 22 % YoY increase in total payment volume to $9.3 bn, while revenue grew 18 % to $1.12 bn. However, the company posted a net loss of $210 m, reflecting higher financing costs amid rising interest rates-a macro driver that can compress BNPL margins. The BNPL sector’s growth rate is estimated at 12 % CAGR through 2027, but regulatory scrutiny (e.g., U.S. CFPB guidance) adds uncertainty to future underwriting standards.
Given the sensitivity of BNPL models to credit spreads and consumer discretionary spending, analysts should monitor the Fed’s policy trajectory and the competitive landscape (e.g., PayPal, Klarna) when projecting AFRM’s earnings potential.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you might explore the ValueRay platform’s analyst toolkit to compare AFRM’s valuation metrics against sector peers.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (233.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 207.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.95pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 67.55% (prev 343.1%; Δ -275.5pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 971.6m > Net Income 233.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (6.53b) to EBITDA (815.9m) ratio: 8.00 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 14.61 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (348.3m) change vs 12m ago 9.44% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 62.53% (prev 65.71%; Δ -3.18pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 32.00% (prev 24.90%; Δ 7.10pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.31 (EBITDA TTM 815.9m / Interest Expense TTM 431.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.46
| (A) 0.20 = (Total Current Assets 2.51b - Total Current Liabilities 171.7m) / Total Assets 11.48b |
| (B) -0.26 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.98b / Total Assets 11.48b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 564.1m / Avg Total Assets 10.81b |
| (D) -0.37 = Book Value of Equity -3.00b / Total Liabilities 8.18b |
| Total Rating: 0.46 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.33
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.66% |
| 3. FCF Margin 22.24% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.41 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 8.00 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -6.37)% |
| 7. RoE 7.75% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 97.60% |
| 9. EPS Trend 76.01% |
What is the price of AFRM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.09%, over one month by -14.82%, over three months by -19.05% and over the past year by -2.21%.
Is AFRM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 11
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AFRM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 92.7 | 37.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 92.7 | 37.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 65.2 | -3% |
AFRM Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 98.7101
P/E Forward = 85.4701
P/S = 6.4989
P/B = 6.8028
P/EG = 42.6377
Beta = 3.575
Revenue TTM = 3.46b USD
EBIT TTM = 564.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 815.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.93b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.96b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.53b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 28.96b USD (22.48b + Debt 7.96b - CCE 1.48b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.31 (Ebit TTM 564.1m / Interest Expense TTM 431.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.66% (FCF TTM 769.2m / Enterprise Value 28.96b)
FCF Margin = 22.24% (FCF TTM 769.2m / Revenue TTM 3.46b)
Net Margin = 6.74% (Net Income TTM 233.1m / Revenue TTM 3.46b)
Gross Margin = 62.53% ((Revenue TTM 3.46b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.30b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.77% (prev 67.72%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.52 (Enterprise Value 28.96b / Total Assets 11.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.38% (Interest Expense 110.0m / Debt 7.96b)
Taxrate = 2.80% (2.33m / 83.0m)
NOPAT = 548.3m (EBIT 564.1m * (1 - 2.80%))
Current Ratio = 14.61 (Total Current Assets 2.51b / Total Current Liabilities 171.7m)
Debt / Equity = 2.41 (Debt 7.96b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.30b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.00 (Net Debt 6.53b / EBITDA 815.9m)
Debt / FCF = 8.49 (Net Debt 6.53b / FCF TTM 769.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.03% (Net Income 233.1m / Total Assets 11.48b)
RoE = 7.75% (Net Income TTM 233.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.01b)
RoCE = 5.16% (EBIT 564.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.01b + L.T.Debt 7.93b))
RoIC = 5.15% (NOPAT 548.3m / Invested Capital 10.64b)
WACC = 11.53% (E(22.48b)/V(30.44b) * Re(15.13%) + D(7.96b)/V(30.44b) * Rd(1.38%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 15.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.41%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 45.68% ; FCFE base≈613.7m ; Y1≈402.9m ; Y5≈184.3m
Fair Price DCF = 5.85 (DCF Value 1.69b / Shares Outstanding 289.4m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 76.01 | EPS CAGR: 25.89% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.60 | Revenue CAGR: 28.83% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=+0.009 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=3.11 | Chg30d=+0.325 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+78.1% | Growth Revenue=+26.4%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=3.83 | Chg30d=+0.112 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+23.1% | Growth Revenue=+24.3%
Additional Sources for AFRM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle