AFYA Stock Analysis: Afya | NASDAQ
Education & Training Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.318m USD | 12M Return: -23.8% | KYG011251066 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.14M
EPS Trend: 71.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Afya Limited (NASDAQ: AFYA) is a medical education group headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, founded in 1999 and listed on NASDAQ since its 2019 IPO. The company operates three core segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions, covering a broad spectrum of educational and clinical support services.
The Undergraduate segment delivers on-campus degree programs in fields such as medicine, dentistry, nursing, psychology, pharmacy, and engineering. In Brazil, for-profit medical education has expanded significantly in recent years, driven by physician shortages in underserved regions and a growing demand for healthcare professionals. Afyas model typically combines tuition-based degree programs with hybrid (online and in-person) teaching formats to scale efficiently.
The Continuing Education segment offers residency and specialization exam prep, graduate-level medical courses, and professional development for practicing physicians and students. Test preparation and continuing medical education (CME) represent recurring revenue streams across the broader education services sector, often generating higher margins than traditional undergraduate tuition.
The Medical Practice Solutions segment provides subscription-based digital tools, including clinical decision support platforms, electronic medical records, practice management software, telemedicine, and digital prescriptions. This segment also operates a mobile app and web portal used by physicians and students for clinical calculators, medical scores, and updated reference content. Digital health platforms serving healthcare professionals have grown rapidly, leveraging subscription economics similar to other software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses.
Afya also extends its services to third-party medical schools through educational content, medical imaging resources, and digital learning platforms. Despite being classified under the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector and Education Services sub-industry, the companys business model blends traditional higher education tuition with healthcare technology and professional content distribution.
- Brazil rate cuts lift enrollment in undergraduate medical programs
- Medical Practice Solutions subscriptions accelerate digital margins
- BRL depreciation pressures dollar-reported revenue growth
| Net Income: 784.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.24 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.65% < 20% (prev -3.62%; Δ 31.27% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 1.32b > Net Income 784.6m |
| Net Debt (3.18b) to EBITDA (1.71b): 1.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (89.3m) vs 12m ago -2.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.98% > 18% (prev 64.56%; Δ -0.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.44% > 50% (prev 38.38%; Δ 3.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.69 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 496.1m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.95b - Total Current Liabilities 884.5m) / Total Assets 9.31b |
| B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 2.78b / Total Assets 9.31b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Avg Total Assets 9.28b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 4.88b / Total Liabilities 4.39b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.86 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.12 (Receivables 876.8m/721.1m, Revenue 3.84b/3.55b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 64.56% / 63.98%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.62 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 3.84b / 3.55b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 784.6m - CFO 1.32b) / TA 9.31b) |
| Beneish M = -2.87 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.64 with a total of 1,768,487 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -28.78%, over one month by -11.63%, over three months by -25.07% and over the past year by -23.79%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.00 (which is 6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Afya has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFYA.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 17.3 | 62.8% |
Market Cap BRL = 7.14b (1.32b USD * 5.41535 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 9.2547
P/E Forward = 7.8616
P/S = 0.3445
P/B = 1.254
Revenue TTM = 3.84b BRL
EBIT TTM = 1.34b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 1.71b BRL
Long Term Debt = 1.92b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 183.7m BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.18b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.07b
Net Debt = 3.18b BRL (calculated: Debt 4.18b - CCE 1.00b)
Enterprise Value = 10.3b BRL (7.14b + Debt 4.18b - CCE 1.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.69 (Ebit TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 496.1m)
EV/FCF = 8.90x (Enterprise Value 10.3b / FCF TTM 1.16b)
FCF Yield = 11.24% (FCF TTM 1.16b / Enterprise Value 10.3b)
FCF Margin = 30.18% (FCF TTM 1.16b / Revenue TTM 3.84b)
Net Margin = 20.41% (Net Income TTM 784.6m / Revenue TTM 3.84b)
Gross Margin = 63.98% ((Revenue TTM 3.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.38b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 61.59% (prev 68.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 10.3b / Total Assets 9.31b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.86% (Interest Expense 496.1m / Debt 4.18b)
Taxrate = 10.55% (94.4m / 894.6m)
NOPAT = 1.19b (EBIT 1.34b * (1 - 10.55%))
Current Ratio = 2.20 (Total Current Assets 1.95b / Total Current Liabilities 884.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.86 (Debt 4.18b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.86 (Net Debt 3.18b / EBITDA 1.71b)
Debt / FCF = 2.74 (Net Debt 3.18b / FCF TTM 1.16b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.79b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.46% (Net Income 784.6m / Total Assets 9.31b)
RoE = 16.38% (Net Income TTM 784.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.79b)
RoCE = 19.90% (EBIT 1.34b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.79b + L.T.Debt 1.92b))
RoIC = 14.19% (NOPAT 1.19b / Invested Capital 8.42b)
WACC = 8.13% (E(7.14b)/V(11.3b) * Re(6.68%) + D(4.18b)/V(11.3b) * Rd(11.86%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 6.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -55.33 | Cagr: -3.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.80% ; FCFF base≈1.15b ; Y1≈1.18b ; Y5≈1.31b
[DCF] Fair Price = 341.5 (EV 20.2b - Net Debt 3.18b = Equity 17.0b / Shares 49.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 2.75% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 71.05 | EPS CAGR: 13.95% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.14 | Revenue CAGR: 13.35% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.92 | Chg30d=+3.45% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.07 | Chg30d=-2.35% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-7.3% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.13 | Chg30d=-0.86% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+11.7% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)