AGIO Stock Analysis: Agios Pharm | NASDAQ

Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.224m USD | 12M Return: 25% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Hemolytic Anemia, Sickle Cell, Thalassemia, Polycythemia Vera
Total Rating 29
Safety 34
Buy Signal 0.97
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +30.9
Market Cap: 2.22B
Avg Turnover: 34.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility79.0%
VaR 5th Pctl12.0%
VaR vs Median-6.62%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.71
Rel. Str. IBD76.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group33.8
Character TTM
Beta1.471
Beta Downside1.712
Hurst Exponent0.427
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD63.76%
CAGR/Max DD0.28
CAGR/Mean DD0.61
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AGIO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -1.39, "2021-09": -1.51, "2021-12": -1.74, "2022-03": -1.74, "2022-06": -1.68, "2022-09": -1.49, "2022-12": 0.67, "2023-03": -1.47, "2023-06": -1.51, "2023-09": -1.64, "2023-12": -1.72, "2024-03": -1.45, "2024-06": -1.69, "2024-09": -1.47, "2024-12": -1.74, "2025-03": -1.55, "2025-06": -1.93, "2025-09": -1.78, "2025-12": -1.85, "2026-03": -1.69,
Last SUE: 0.03
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of AGIO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 37.347, 2021-09: 0, 2021-12: 4.141E-5, 2022-03: 0.832, 2022-06: 5.582, 2022-09: 3.516, 2022-12: 4.31, 2023-03: 5.609, 2023-06: 6.712, 2023-09: 7.399, 2023-12: 7.103, 2024-03: 8.189, 2024-06: 8.615, 2024-09: 8.964, 2024-12: 10.73, 2025-03: 8.726, 2025-06: 12.455, 2025-09: 12.88, 2025-12: 19.967, 2026-03: 20.746,
Rev. CAGR: 44.25%
Rev. Trend: 98.1%
Last SUE: 2.40
Qual. Beats: 4

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Overextended 3d

Tailwinds

Supp Ema8
Ep Pivot

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +2.3% 12
Feb +1.0% 14
Mar -1.6% 16
Apr -0.4% 2
May +3.1% 18
Jun +6.8% 44
Jul +0.5% 19
Aug -4.6% 23
Sep -3.5% 19
Oct -1.9% 6
Nov +9.6% 21
Dec -8.2% 44

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AGIO Agios Pharm

Agios Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AGIO) is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company founded in 2007 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The company focuses on discovering and developing medicines that target cellular metabolism, with its lead product PYRUKYND (mitapivat) approved for treating hemolytic anemia in adults with pyruvate kinase (PK) deficiency. PYRUKYND is also being evaluated in a Phase 3 trial for sickle cell disease and in pediatric PK deficiency, while the pipeline includes AQVESME for alpha- and beta-thalassemia, tebapivat for lower-risk MDS and sickle cell disease, AG-181 for phenylketonuria (PKU), and AG-236-an siRNA candidate in-licensed from Alnylam-for polycythemia vera.

As a clinical-stage and commercial biopharmaceutical firm, Agios operates within the capital-intensive biotechnology sector, where companies typically rely on a mix of product revenue, partnerships, and equity financing to fund lengthy drug development cycles. Its strategy centers on small-molecule enzyme activators and related modalities addressing rare hematologic and metabolic diseases, a niche often favored for orphan-drug designation and premium pricing.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • PYRUKYND revenue growth drives commercial momentum in hemolytic anemias
  • Mitapivat Phase 3 sickle cell data readout is key catalyst
  • Competition intensifies from gene therapies in sickle cell market
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.0
Net Income: -422.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.32 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.51 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 1.17k% < 20% (prev 2.47k%; Δ -1.30k% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.32 > 3% & CFO -380.4m > Net Income -422.6m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 14.19 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.8m) vs 12m ago 2.30% < -2%
Gross Margin: 82.07% > 18% (prev 79.77%; Δ 2.31% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 4.82% > 50% (prev 2.38%; Δ 2.44% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)
Altman Z'' 10.00
A: 0.65 (Total Current Assets 834.8m - Total Current Liabilities 58.8m) / Total Assets 1.18b
B: -0.56 (Retained Earnings -660.8m / Total Assets 1.18b)
C: -0.31 (EBIT TTM -423.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.37b)
D: 14.62 (Book Value of Equity 1.11b / Total Liabilities 75.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 15.75 = AAA
Beneish M -1.23
DSRI: 2.71 (Receivables 16.1m/3.34m, Revenue 66.0m/37.0m)
GMI: 0.97 (GM 79.77% / 82.07%)
AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.34)
SGI: 1.78 (Revenue 66.0m / 37.0m)
TATA: -0.04 (NI -422.6m - CFO -380.4m) / TA 1.18b)
Beneish M = -1.23 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of AGIO shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 44.01 with a total of 2,775,122 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.69%, over one month by +60.39%, over three months by +25.35% and over the past year by +24.99%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 42.30 (which is 3.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is AGIO a buy, sell or hold?

Agios Pharm has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGIO.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AGIO price?
Analysts Target Price 40.8 -7.4%
Agios Pharm (AGIO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.22b (2.22b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 2.4655
P/S = 33.6671
P/B = 0.9194
Revenue TTM = 66.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -423.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -418.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 16.9m USD (estimated: total debt 35.7m - short term 18.8m)
Short Term Debt = 18.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 35.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 35.7m already included)
Net Debt = -701.3m USD (calculated: Debt 35.7m - CCE 737.0m)
Enterprise Value = 1.52b USD (2.22b + Debt 35.7m - CCE 737.0m)
 Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -423.6m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
 EV/FCF = -3.96x (Enterprise Value 1.52b / FCF TTM -384.7m)
FCF Yield = -25.27% (FCF TTM -384.7m / Enterprise Value 1.52b)
 FCF Margin = -582.5% (FCF TTM -384.7m / Revenue TTM 66.0m)
 Net Margin = -639.8% (Net Income TTM -422.6m / Revenue TTM 66.0m)
 Gross Margin = 82.07% ((Revenue TTM 66.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.07% (prev 84.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 1.52b / Total Assets 1.18b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 35.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -334.7m (EBIT -423.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 14.19 (Total Current Assets 834.8m / Total Current Liabilities 58.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 35.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.11b)
 Debt / EBITDA = 1.68 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -701.3m / EBITDA -418.4m)
 Debt / FCF = 1.82 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -701.3m / FCF TTM -384.7m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 1.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -30.84% (Net Income -422.6m / Total Assets 1.18b)
RoE = -34.11% (Net Income TTM -422.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.24b)
RoCE = -33.73% (EBIT -423.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.24b + L.T.Debt 16.9m))
 RoIC = -29.31% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -334.7m / Invested Capital 1.14b)
 WACC = 10.98% (E(2.22b)/V(2.26b) * Re(11.16%) + D(35.7m)/V(2.26b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 77.78 | Cagr: 2.26%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -384.7m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.15 | Revenue CAGR: 44.25% | SUE: 2.40 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-1.67 | Chg30d=-6.14% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.49 | Chg30d=-2.16% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.18 | Chg30d=-3.50% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+13.2% | GrowthRev=+125.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-4.77 | Chg30d=-1.99% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+23.4% | GrowthRev=+110.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)