(AGIO) Agios Pharm - Ratings and Ratios
Mitapivat, Tebapivat, AG-181, AG-236
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 173% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 260% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.54% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.67 |
| Alpha | -65.38 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.249 |
| Beta | 0.943 |
| Beta Downside | 0.809 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.76% |
| Mean DD | 24.21% |
| Median DD | 22.17% |
Description: AGIO Agios Pharm November 10, 2025
Agios Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AGIO) is a Cambridge-based biopharma that focuses on targeting cellular metabolism. Its flagship product, PYRUKYND (mitapivat), is an oral activator of both wild-type and mutant pyruvate kinase and received FDA approval in 2022 for adults with pyruvate-kinase (PK) deficiency, a rare hemolytic anemia. The company is expanding PYRUKYND into several hematologic indications-including sickle-cell disease (Phase 3), pediatric PK deficiency, and both non-transfusion-dependent and transfusion-dependent α- or β-thalassemia-while also advancing a pipeline of metabolic-focused candidates such as tebapivat (myelodysplastic syndrome and hemolytic anemias), AG-181 (phenylketonuria), and an Alnylam-licensed siRNA (AG-236) for polycythemia vera.
From a financial standpoint, Agios reported FY 2023 revenue of roughly $71 million, a net loss of $327 million, and a cash runway of about $1.2 billion, giving it sufficient liquidity to fund its late-stage trials through at least 2026. The PK-deficiency market is estimated at $300 million globally, and broader hematology biotech has been benefitting from a 12 % CAGR in R&D spend, driven by advances in gene-editing and RNA-based therapies-trends that could amplify Agios’ addressable opportunity if its pipeline clears regulatory hurdles.
Given the high-risk, high-reward nature of late-stage metabolic therapeutics, investors should monitor FDA decision dates, enrollment metrics in the ongoing Phase 3 sickle-cell trial, and any partnership announcements that could de-risk commercialization; for a deeper, data-driven assessment of AGIO’s risk-adjusted upside, a quick look at ValueRay’s analytical dashboard may be worthwhile.
AGIO Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 2,545m |
| Sub-Industry | Biotechnology |
| IPO / Inception | 2013-07-24 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -59.8% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
AGIO Dividends
Currently no dividends paidAGIO Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -5.42% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.09 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.22 |
| Current Volume | 7666.2k |
| Average Volume | 647.4k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income (-401.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.69m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.30 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -11.46pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 2140 % (prev 2904 %; Δ -764.9pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.30 (>3.0%) and CFO -409.9m <= Net Income -401.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 13.82 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (58.1m) change vs 12m ago -0.50% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 84.41% (prev 76.16%; Δ 8.24pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 2.82% (prev 1.83%; Δ 0.98pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -12.09 (EBITDA TTM -441.8m / Interest Expense TTM -37.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -3.10
| (A) 0.69 = (Total Current Assets 1.03b - Total Current Liabilities 74.8m) / Total Assets 1.39b |
| (B) -0.33 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -453.7m / Total Assets 1.39b |
| (C) -0.28 = EBIT TTM -447.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.59b |
| (D) -4.45 = Book Value of Equity -451.5m / Total Liabilities 101.4m |
| Total Rating: -3.10 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 35.86
| 1. Piotroski 1.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -25.30% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.03 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.11 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -41.29)% |
| 7. RoE -28.35% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 94.65% |
| 9. EPS Trend -54.65% |
What is the price of AGIO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -42.24%, over one month by -42.39%, over three months by -33.27% and over the past year by -55.02%.
Is AGIO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGIO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 47.3 | 92.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 47.3 | 92.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23.6 | -4.1% |
AGIO Fundamental Data Overview November 17, 2025
P/E Forward = 2.4655
P/S = 56.8283
P/B = 1.9828
Beta = 0.836
Revenue TTM = 44.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -447.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -441.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 44.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 44.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -48.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.64b USD (2.55b + Debt 44.5m - CCE 952.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -12.09 (Ebit TTM -447.1m / Interest Expense TTM -37.0m)
FCF Yield = -25.30% (FCF TTM -414.1m / Enterprise Value 1.64b)
FCF Margin = -924.5% (FCF TTM -414.1m / Revenue TTM 44.8m)
Net Margin = -895.9% (Net Income TTM -401.3m / Revenue TTM 44.8m)
Gross Margin = 84.41% ((Revenue TTM 44.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.99m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 86.96% (prev 76.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 1.64b / Total Assets 1.39b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 21.55% (Interest Expense 9.60m / Debt 44.5m)
Taxrate = -0.0% (0.0 / -103.4m)
NOPAT = -447.1m (EBIT -447.1m * (1 - -0.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 13.82 (Total Current Assets 1.03b / Total Current Liabilities 74.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 44.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.11 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -48.2m / EBITDA -441.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.12 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -48.2m / FCF TTM -414.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -28.96% (Net Income -401.3m / Total Assets 1.39b)
RoE = -28.35% (Net Income TTM -401.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.42b)
RoCE = -30.63% (EBIT -447.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.42b + L.T.Debt 44.5m))
RoIC = -31.59% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -447.1m / Invested Capital 1.42b)
WACC = 9.70% (E(2.55b)/V(2.59b) * Re(9.49%) + D(44.5m)/V(2.59b) * Rd(21.55%) * (1-Tc(-0.0)))
Discount Rate = 9.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.99%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -414.1m)
EPS Correlation: -54.65 | EPS CAGR: -54.87% | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.65 | Revenue CAGR: 48.90% | SUE: 1.68 | # QB: 2
Additional Sources for AGIO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle