AGNC Stock Analysis: AGNC Investment | NASDAQ
REIT - Mortgage | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 12.822m USD | 12M Return: 37.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 164M
EPS Trend: -98.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 32.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AGNC Investment Corp. is a Bethesda, Maryland-based mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that supplies private capital to the U.S. housing market by investing primarily in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) whose principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a U.S. government-sponsored enterprise (such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac) or a U.S. government agency (such as Ginnie Mae). As a REIT, AGNC generally avoids federal and state corporate income tax by distributing at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. The company was incorporated in 2008, originally operated as American Capital Agency Corp., and adopted its current name in September 2016.
- Net interest margin compresses as hedging costs rise
- Mortgage prepayments accelerate on rate rallies, pressuring book value
- Fed balance sheet runoff weighs on agency MBS spreads
| Net Income: 1.47b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.06k% < 20% (prev -2.30k%; Δ -759.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 848.0m > Net Income 1.47b |
| Net Debt (104b) to EBITDA (4.24b): 24.57 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.12b) vs 12m ago 21.77% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 76.33% > 18% (prev 96.49%; Δ -20.16% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.14% > 50% (prev 2.95%; Δ 0.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.06b / Interest Expense TTM 2.89b) |
| A: -0.87 (Total Current Assets 2.36b - Total Current Liabilities 106b) / Total Assets 119b |
| B: -0.08 (Retained Earnings -9.12b / Total Assets 119b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 4.06b / Avg Total Assets 107b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 12.2b / Total Liabilities 107b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.58 = D |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.13 with a total of 11,502,009 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.18%, over one month by +9.14%, over three months by +9.39% and over the past year by +37.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.80 (which is 3% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
AGNC Investment has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AGNC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 11.4 | 2.8% |
P/E Trailing = 8.7266
P/E Forward = 6.8729
P/S = 7.989
P/B = 1.2364
P/EG = 3.4836
Revenue TTM = 3.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.06b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.24b USD
Long Term Debt = 56.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 105b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 105b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 104b USD (calculated: Debt 105b - CCE 493.0m)
Enterprise Value = 117b USD (12.8b + Debt 105b - CCE 493.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.40 (Ebit TTM 4.06b / Interest Expense TTM 2.89b)
EV/FCF = 137.9x (Enterprise Value 117b / FCF TTM 848.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.72% (FCF TTM 848.0m / Enterprise Value 117b)
FCF Margin = 25.12% (FCF TTM 848.0m / Revenue TTM 3.38b)
Net Margin = 43.60% (Net Income TTM 1.47b / Revenue TTM 3.38b)
Gross Margin = 76.33% ((Revenue TTM 3.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 799.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.38% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 117b / Total Assets 119b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.76% (Interest Expense 2.89b / Debt 105b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 3.21b (EBIT 4.06b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.02 (Total Current Assets 2.36b / Total Current Liabilities 106b)
Debt / Equity = 8.59 (Debt 105b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.57 (Net Debt 104b / EBITDA 4.24b)
Debt / FCF = 122.8 (Net Debt 104b / FCF TTM 848.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.37% (Net Income 1.47b / Total Assets 119b)
RoE = 12.70% (Net Income TTM 1.47b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.6b)
RoCE = 34.88% (EBIT 4.06b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.6b + L.T.Debt 56.0m))
RoIC = 2.73% (NOPAT 3.21b / Invested Capital 118b)
WACC = 2.85% (E(12.8b)/V(117b) * Re(8.33%) + D(105b)/V(117b) * Rd(2.76%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 23.81%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈612.0m ; Y1≈701.6m ; Y5≈1.03b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 15.5b - Net Debt 104b = -88.6b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -98.84 | EPS CAGR: -24.06% | SUE: 1.01 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 32.00 | Revenue CAGR: 25.90% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=+0.24% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=-0.44% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.57 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+4.4% | GrowthRev=+166.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.50 | Chg30d=-1.10% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-4.4% | GrowthRev=+18.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=16, down=11)