AGNC Stock Analysis: AGNC Investment | NASDAQ
REIT - Mortgage | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 12.910m USD | 12M Return: 26.5% | US00123Q1040 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 173M
EPS Trend: -82.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 13.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AGNC Investment Corp. is a Bethesda, Maryland-based mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that supplies private capital to the U.S. housing market by investing primarily in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) whose principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a U.S. government-sponsored enterprise (such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac) or a U.S. government agency (such as Ginnie Mae). As a REIT, AGNC generally avoids federal and state corporate income tax by distributing at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. The company was incorporated in 2008, originally operated as American Capital Agency Corp., and adopted its current name in September 2016.
- Net interest margin compresses as hedging costs rise
- Mortgage prepayments accelerate on rate rallies, pressuring book value
- Fed balance sheet runoff weighs on agency MBS spreads
| Net Income: 2.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.81k% < 20% (prev -37.4k%; Δ 34.6k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 886.0m > Net Income 2.22b |
| Net Debt (89.4b) to EBITDA (3.66b): 24.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.16b) vs 12m ago 14.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 78.79% > 18% (prev -232.5%; Δ 311.3% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.37% > 50% (prev 0.24%; Δ 3.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.19 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 2.93b) |
| A: -0.87 (Total Current Assets 1.79b - Total Current Liabilities 108b) / Total Assets 122b |
| B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -8.93b / Total Assets 122b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Avg Total Assets 112b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 12.5b / Total Liabilities 109b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.61 = D |
As of August 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.81 with a total of 12,147,722 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.44%, over one month by +2.73%, over three months by +7.17% and over the past year by +26.46%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.40 (which is 3.8% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
AGNC Investment has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AGNC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 11.1 | 2.3% |
P/E Trailing = 5.4179
P/E Forward = 6.9156
P/S = 5.3769
P/B = 1.2247
P/EG = 3.4836
Revenue TTM = 3.77b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.48b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.66b USD
Long Term Debt = 56.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 89.8b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 89.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 89.4b USD (calculated: Debt 89.8b - CCE 457.0m)
Enterprise Value = 102b USD (12.9b + Debt 89.8b - CCE 457.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.19 (Ebit TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 2.93b)
EV/FCF = 115.4x (Enterprise Value 102b / FCF TTM 886.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.87% (FCF TTM 886.0m / Enterprise Value 102b)
FCF Margin = 23.50% (FCF TTM 886.0m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Net Margin = 58.92% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Gross Margin = 78.79% ((Revenue TTM 3.77b - Cost of Revenue TTM 800.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 30.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 102b / Total Assets 122b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.27% (Interest Expense 2.93b / Debt 89.8b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 2.75b (EBIT 3.48b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 108b)
Debt / Equity = 7.16 (Debt 89.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.42 (Net Debt 89.4b / EBITDA 3.66b)
Debt / FCF = 100.8 (Net Debt 89.4b / FCF TTM 886.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.99% (Net Income 2.22b / Total Assets 122b)
RoE = 18.30% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.1b)
RoCE = 28.55% (EBIT 3.48b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.1b + L.T.Debt 56.0m))
RoIC = 2.65% (NOPAT 2.75b / Invested Capital 104b)
WACC = 3.30% (E(12.9b)/V(103b) * Re(8.34%) + D(89.8b)/V(103b) * Rd(3.27%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 99.09 | Cagr: 24.93%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈714.8m ; Y1≈819.4m ; Y5≈1.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 18.1b - Net Debt 89.4b = -71.2b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -82.87 | EPS CAGR: -23.61% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 13.18 | Revenue CAGR: 13.49% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=+0.16% | Revisions=+22% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.58 | Chg30d=+1.07% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+117.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.50 | Chg30d=+0.29% | Revisions=+18% | GrowthEPS=-5.2% | GrowthRev=+31.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +34% (up=18, down=8)