AGNC Stock Analysis: AGNC Investment | NASDAQ
REIT - Mortgage | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 10.207m USD | 12M Return: -1.5% | US00123Q1040 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 368M
EPS Trend: -82.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 13.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) is a Bethesda, Maryland-based real estate investment trust (REIT) that provides private capital to the U.S. housing market. The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) whose principal and interest payments are guaranteed by U.S. government-sponsored enterprises (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) or U.S. government agencies (such as Ginnie Mae). Because it qualifies as a REIT, AGNC is generally exempt from federal and state corporate income taxes provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. The firm was incorporated in 2008, went public on May 13, 2008, was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp., and adopted its current name in September 2016. With a market capitalization of approximately $10.3 billion, AGNC operates as a large-cap company within the Mortgage REITs sub-industry of the Financials sector.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts interest rates
- Mortgage prepayments accelerate on refinancing wave, pressuring portfolio yields
- Dividend yield remains primary draw for income-focused investors
| Net Income: 2.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.81k% < 20% (prev -37.4k%; Δ 34.6k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 886.0m > Net Income 2.22b |
| Net Debt (89.4b) to EBITDA (3.66b): 24.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.16b) vs 12m ago 14.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 78.79% > 18% (prev -232.5%; Δ 311.3% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.37% > 50% (prev 0.24%; Δ 3.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.19 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 2.93b) |
| A: -0.87 (Total Current Assets 1.79b - Total Current Liabilities 108b) / Total Assets 122b |
| B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -8.93b / Total Assets 122b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Avg Total Assets 112b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 12.5b / Total Liabilities 109b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.61 = D |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.61 with a total of 24,132,363 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.77%, over one month by -13.57%, over three months by -20.25% and over the past year by -1.46%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.20 (which is 4.8% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
AGNC Investment has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.29. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AGNC.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 10.6 | 23.2% |
P/E Trailing = 4.3929
P/E Forward = 6.605
P/S = 4.2511
P/B = 1.1104
P/EG = 3.4836
Revenue TTM = 3.77b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.48b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.66b USD
Long Term Debt = 56.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 89.8b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 89.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 89.4b USD (calculated: Debt 89.8b - CCE 457.0m)
Enterprise Value = 99.6b USD (10.2b + Debt 89.8b - CCE 457.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.19 (Ebit TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 2.93b)
EV/FCF = 112.4x (Enterprise Value 99.6b / FCF TTM 886.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.89% (FCF TTM 886.0m / Enterprise Value 99.6b)
FCF Margin = 23.50% (FCF TTM 886.0m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Net Margin = 58.92% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Gross Margin = 78.79% ((Revenue TTM 3.77b - Cost of Revenue TTM 800.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 30.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 99.6b / Total Assets 122b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.27% (Interest Expense 2.93b / Debt 89.8b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 2.75b (EBIT 3.48b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 108b)
Debt / Equity = 7.16 (Debt 89.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.42 (Net Debt 89.4b / EBITDA 3.66b)
Debt / FCF = 100.8 (Net Debt 89.4b / FCF TTM 886.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.99% (Net Income 2.22b / Total Assets 122b)
RoE = 18.30% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.1b)
RoCE = 28.55% (EBIT 3.48b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.1b + L.T.Debt 56.0m))
RoIC = 2.65% (NOPAT 2.75b / Invested Capital 104b)
WACC = 3.17% (E(10.2b)/V(100b) * Re(8.36%) + D(89.8b)/V(100b) * Rd(3.27%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 99.09 | Cagr: 24.93%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈714.8m ; Y1≈819.4m ; Y5≈1.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 18.1b - Net Debt 89.4b = -71.2b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -82.87 | EPS CAGR: -23.61% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 13.18 | Revenue CAGR: 13.49% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=-0.29% | Revisions=+22% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.58 | Chg30d=-0.27% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+5.2% | GrowthRev=+117.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=-0.72% | Revisions=+18% | GrowthEPS=-5.6% | GrowthRev=+31.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +34% (up=18, down=8)