(AKBA) Akebia Ther - Overview
Stock: Anemia, Hyperphosphatemia, Kidney-Injury, Retinopathy, Hypoxia
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 74.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.14 |
| Alpha | -51.58 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.999 |
| Beta Downside | 0.657 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.58% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.30 |
Description: AKBA Akebia Ther January 26, 2026
Akebia Therapeutics (NASDAQ: AKBA) is a U.S.-based biopharma focused on kidney-related diseases, developing oral and injectable agents that target anemia, hyperphosphatemia, and acute kidney injury. Its lead product, Vafseo (vadadustat), is a hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor currently in Phase III trials for anemia in both dialysis-dependent (DD) and non-dialysis-dependent (NDD) chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients.
In addition to Vafseo, Akebia markets Auryxia (ferric citrate) for serum phosphorus control in DD-CKD and iron-deficiency anemia in NDD-CKD, generating roughly $140 million in FY 2024 revenue-a 15 % year-over-year increase driven by expanding formulary coverage in the United States. The company’s pipeline also includes AKB-9090 for cardiac-surgery-related acute kidney injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome, and AKB-10108 for retinopathy of prematurity, both in early-stage development.
Financially, Akebia reported cash and cash equivalents of about $350 million at the end of Q4 2025, sufficient to fund operations through mid-2027 under current burn rates. However, the firm posted a net loss of $85 million for FY 2025, reflecting continued R&D spend and the absence of a fully approved blockbuster product.
Key macro drivers for Akebia’s market opportunity include the rising prevalence of CKD-projected to grow at a 5 % CAGR through 2030 as diabetes rates climb-and a favorable reimbursement environment for oral anemia therapies, which are positioned as cost-effective alternatives to injectable erythropoiesis-stimulating agents.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -15.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 27.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 55.52% < 20% (prev 20.26%; Δ 35.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 32.4m > Net Income -15.9m |
| Net Debt (-113.9m) to EBITDA (21.2m): -5.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.94 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (274.4m) vs 12m ago 30.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 78.85% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 7810 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 78.79% > 50% (prev 82.01%; Δ -3.22% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.42 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 21.2m / Interest Expense TTM 26.2m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.34 (Total Current Assets 258.3m - Total Current Liabilities 133.4m) / Total Assets 364.2m |
| B: -4.59 (Retained Earnings -1.67b / Total Assets 364.2m) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 10.9m / Avg Total Assets 285.6m) |
| D: -5.18 (Book Value of Equity -1.67b / Total Liabilities 322.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -17.90 = D |
Beneish M -2.77
| DSRI: 1.55 (Receivables 66.2m/32.2m, Revenue 225.1m/169.9m) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 78.85% / 74.19%) |
| AQI: 0.59 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.46) |
| SGI: 1.32 (Revenue 225.1m / 169.9m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI -15.9m - CFO 32.4m) / TA 364.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AKBA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.42%, over one month by -5.44%, over three months by -30.85% and over the past year by -35.65%.
Is AKBA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AKBA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.4 | 288.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.4 | 288.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.4 | -2.2% |
AKBA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.6624
P/B = 8.9961
Revenue TTM = 225.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 10.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 21.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 47.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.94m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 52.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -113.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 260.3m USD (374.2m + Debt 52.6m - CCE 166.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.42 (Ebit TTM 10.9m / Interest Expense TTM 26.2m)
EV/FCF = 8.09x (Enterprise Value 260.3m / FCF TTM 32.2m)
FCF Yield = 12.36% (FCF TTM 32.2m / Enterprise Value 260.3m)
FCF Margin = 14.30% (FCF TTM 32.2m / Revenue TTM 225.1m)
Net Margin = -7.07% (Net Income TTM -15.9m / Revenue TTM 225.1m)
Gross Margin = 78.85% ((Revenue TTM 225.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 47.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.49% (prev 84.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 260.3m / Total Assets 364.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.03% (Interest Expense 4.75m / Debt 52.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 8.64m (EBIT 10.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.94 (Total Current Assets 258.3m / Total Current Liabilities 133.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.26 (Debt 52.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 41.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.36 (Net Debt -113.9m / EBITDA 21.2m)
Debt / FCF = -3.54 (Net Debt -113.9m / FCF TTM 32.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.57% (Net Income -15.9m / Total Assets 364.2m)
RoE = -137.7% (Net Income TTM -15.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 11.6m)
RoCE = 18.48% (EBIT 10.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 11.6m + L.T.Debt 47.6m))
RoIC = 15.29% (NOPAT 8.64m / Invested Capital 56.5m)
WACC = 9.30% (E(374.2m)/V(426.7m) * Re(9.60%) + D(52.6m)/V(426.7m) * Rd(9.03%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 20.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.58% ; FCFF base≈32.2m ; Y1≈21.1m ; Y5≈9.64m
Fair Price DCF = 1.01 (EV 153.9m - Net Debt -113.9m = Equity 267.8m / Shares 265.4m; r=9.30% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 33.96 | EPS CAGR: 185.3% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -27.58 | Revenue CAGR: 0.50% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.01 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=-0.090 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+325.0% | Growth Revenue=+22.4%