(ALAB) Astera Labs - Overview
Stock: Retimers, Controllers, Switches, Modules, Software
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 105% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 |
| Alpha | 17.27 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.358 |
| Beta Downside | 1.927 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.69% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.48 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Primary Risks
P/E ratio: 106.2951
Description: ALAB Astera Labs January 28, 2026
Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) builds semiconductor-based connectivity solutions that enable high-performance data-center and AI workloads. Its product portfolio includes the COSMOS software suite for fleet-scale resource management, PCIe/CXL smart retimers, Ethernet cable modules, CXL memory controllers, and smart fabric switches, all marketed to hyperscalers and OEMs that design cloud-scale servers.
According to the company’s latest Form 10-Q (Q3 2025), ALAB reported $247 million in revenue, a 44 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by expanding orders for PCIe 5.0/6.0 and CXL components. Gross margins improved to 55 % as the mix shifted toward higher-value software-enabled hardware, while R&D expenses remained at roughly 30 % of revenue, reflecting continued investment in the COSMOS platform. The balance sheet shows $215 million in cash and short-term investments, giving the firm a runway through at least Q4 2026 under current burn rates. Macro-level, data-center capex is rising at an estimated 28 % annual pace, and the adoption curve for CXL is projected to accelerate to a 12 % CAGR through 2028, both of which underpin demand for Astera’s connectivity stack.
If you want a more granular, data-driven assessment, consider pulling Astera Labs’ metrics through ValueRay’s analytics platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 219.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 144.2% < 20% (prev 233.8%; Δ -89.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 319.3m > Net Income 219.1m |
| Net Debt (-132.5m) to EBITDA (191.7m): -0.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 10.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (181.2m) vs 12m ago 2.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.69% > 18% (prev 0.76%; Δ 7492 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.93% > 50% (prev 37.58%; Δ 28.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -5.56 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 191.7m / Interest Expense TTM -33.3m) |
Altman Z'' 6.34
| A: 0.80 (Total Current Assets 1.36b - Total Current Liabilities 133.0m) / Total Assets 1.53b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 10.3m / Total Assets 1.53b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 184.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.29b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 14.7m / Total Liabilities 168.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.34 = AAA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 83.2m/38.8m, Revenue 852.5m/396.3m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 75.69% / 76.38%) |
| AQI: 9.11 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 2.15 (Revenue 852.5m / 396.3m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 219.1m - CFO 319.3m) / TA 1.53b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 2.54 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of ALAB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.84%, over one month by -26.46%, over three months by -12.23% and over the past year by +53.23%.
Is ALAB a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALAB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 204.5 | 57.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 204.5 | 57.7% |
ALAB Fundamental Data Overview February 22, 2026
P/E Forward = 54.9451
P/S = 25.8918
P/B = 16.1423
Revenue TTM = 852.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 184.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 191.7m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 4.44m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 35.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -132.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 20.92b USD (22.07b + Debt 35.1m - CCE 1.19b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.56 (Ebit TTM 184.9m / Interest Expense TTM -33.3m)
EV/FCF = 74.25x (Enterprise Value 20.92b / FCF TTM 281.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.35% (FCF TTM 281.8m / Enterprise Value 20.92b)
FCF Margin = 33.05% (FCF TTM 281.8m / Revenue TTM 852.5m)
Net Margin = 25.70% (Net Income TTM 219.1m / Revenue TTM 852.5m)
Gross Margin = 75.69% ((Revenue TTM 852.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 207.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.57% (prev 76.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 13.66 (Enterprise Value 20.92b / Total Assets 1.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -94.67% (Interest Expense -33.3m / Debt 35.1m)
Taxrate = 43.00% (33.9m / 78.9m)
NOPAT = 105.4m (EBIT 184.9m * (1 - 43.00%))
Current Ratio = 10.24 (Total Current Assets 1.36b / Total Current Liabilities 133.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 35.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.69 (Net Debt -132.5m / EBITDA 191.7m)
Debt / FCF = -0.47 (Net Debt -132.5m / FCF TTM 281.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.95% (Net Income 219.1m / Total Assets 1.53b)
RoE = 18.21% (Net Income TTM 219.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.20b)
RoCE = 13.22% (EBIT 184.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.53b - Current Liab 133.0m))
RoIC = 9.17% (NOPAT 105.4m / Invested Capital 1.15b)
WACC = 14.58% (E(22.07b)/V(22.11b) * Re(14.60%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 14.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 96.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 62.79% ; FCFF base≈210.0m ; Y1≈259.1m ; Y5≈441.2m
Fair Price DCF = 19.20 (EV 3.14b - Net Debt -132.5m = Equity 3.27b / Shares 170.2m; r=14.58% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 89.15 | EPS CAGR: 119.8% | SUE: 1.27 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 92.05 | Revenue CAGR: 116.2% | SUE: 3.44 | # QB: 4
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+7 | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.45 | Chg30d=+0.085 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+33.4% | Growth Revenue=+57.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.49 | Chg30d=+0.238 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+42.2% | Growth Revenue=+37.7%