(ALDX) Aldeyra The - Ratings and Ratios
RASP Modulator, Dry Eye, Retinitis, Oral RASP, Preclinical
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 101% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 113% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 |
| Alpha Jensen | -20.53 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.634 |
| Beta | 0.826 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 88.06% |
| Mean DD | 49.92% |
Description: ALDX Aldeyra The October 28, 2025
Aldeyra Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ALDX) is a U.S.-based biotech focused on immune-mediated and metabolic disorders. Its flagship asset, reproxalap-a reactive aldehyde species (RASP) modulator-is in a pivotal Phase III trial for dry-eye disease (DED) and allergic conjunctivitis. The company’s pipeline also includes ADX-2191 (a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor for retinitis pigmentosa) and ADX-629, an oral RASP modulator currently in Phase II for COVID-19, atopic asthma, psoriasis, and alcohol intoxication, plus several preclinical RASP candidates (ADX 248, ADX 743, ADX 631, ADX 246). Aldeyra, incorporated in 2004 and renamed from Aldexa in 2014, is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts.
Key market and financial context: the global dry-eye disease market is projected to exceed $5 billion by 2028, offering a sizable addressable base for reproxalap; Aldeyra reported cash and equivalents of roughly $45 million as of its latest 10-Q, giving it an estimated 12-month runway assuming no additional financing; and biotech R&D spend has risen ~8 % YoY, indicating a favorable capital environment but also heightened competition for trial participants and talent.
Given the high attrition rates in ophthalmology Phase III trials (≈30 % success), Aldeyra’s progression to this stage is a material risk mitigant, yet the ultimate commercial upside hinges on regulatory clearance and market uptake versus entrenched therapies such as cyclosporine eye drops.
For a deeper quantitative comparison of Aldeyra’s valuation metrics against peers, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
ALDX Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 282m |
| Sub-Industry | Biotechnology |
| IPO / Inception | 2014-05-02 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -0.06% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.71 of 5 |
ALDX Dividends
Currently no dividends paidALDX Growth Ratios
| CAGR | -1.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.02 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.04 |
| Current Volume | 705.5k |
| Average Volume | 602.2k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income (-7688.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 14.7k TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.36 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -9.91pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 20.03b% (prev 25.4k%; Δ 20.03bpp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.00 (>3.0%) and CFO -40.1m > Net Income -7688.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 2.72 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (60.1m) change vs 12m ago 1.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin -26.42% (prev 35.89%; Δ -62.31pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 0.00% (prev 0.33%; Δ -0.33pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -100.0k (EBITDA TTM -8001.17b / Interest Expense TTM 1.90m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -34.82
| (A) 0.63 = (Total Current Assets 77460.04b - Total Current Liabilities 28483.93b) / Total Assets 77801.01b |
| (B) -6.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -477495.75b / Total Assets 77801.01b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -6.14 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.21 = EBIT TTM -8001.17b / Avg Total Assets 38900.56b |
| (D) -16.72 = Book Value of Equity -477434.77b / Total Liabilities 28556.47b |
| Total Rating: -34.82 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.56
| 1. Piotroski 0.50pt = -4.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 46.94% = 5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.32 = 2.45 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 5.47 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 30.80)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE -62.45% = -2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 7.94% = 0.60 |
| 9. EPS Trend 10.17% = 0.51 |
What is the price of ALDX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.37%, over one month by -4.38%, over three months by -6.52% and over the past year by +13.83%.
Is Aldeyra The a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ALDX is around 4.45 USD . This means that ALDX is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -11.35%.
Is ALDX a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALDX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.7 | 92.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.7 | 92.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5 | -0.6% |
ALDX Fundamental Data Overview November 10, 2025
P/B = 5.7778
Beta = 0.826
Revenue TTM = 244.5k USD
EBIT TTM = -8001.17b USD
EBITDA TTM = -8001.17b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 15471.21b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15543.75b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -43796.85b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -59753.31b USD (282.2m + Debt 15543.75b - CCE 75297.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.21m (Ebit TTM -8001.17b / Interest Expense TTM 1.90m)
FCF Yield = 46.94% (FCF TTM -28046.35b / Enterprise Value -59753.31b)
FCF Margin = -11.47b% (FCF TTM -28046.35b / Revenue TTM 244.5k)
Net Margin = -3.14b% (Net Income TTM -7688.38b / Revenue TTM 244.5k)
Gross Margin = -26.42% ((Revenue TTM 244.5k - Cost of Revenue TTM 309.1k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.77 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -59753.31b / Total Assets 77801.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 475.9k / Debt 15543.75b)
Taxrate = 100.0m% (out of range, set to none) (-55851.44b / -55.9m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 2.72 (Total Current Assets 77460.04b / Total Current Liabilities 28483.93b)
Debt / Equity = 0.32 (Debt 15543.75b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 49244.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.47 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -43796.85b / EBITDA -8001.17b)
Debt / FCF = 1.56 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -43796.85b / FCF TTM -28046.35b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12311.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -9.88% (Net Income -7688.38b / Total Assets 77801.01b)
RoE = -62.45% (Net Income TTM -7688.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 12311.18b)
RoCE = -64.99% (EBIT -8001.17b / Capital Employed (Equity 12311.18b + L.T.Debt 15.0m))
RoIC = 30.80% (negative operating profit) (EBIT -8001.17b / (Assets 77801.01b - Curr.Liab 28483.93b - Cash 75297.34b))
WACC = 0.00% (E(282.2m)/V(15544.03b) * Re(9.06%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.78%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -28046.35b)
EPS Correlation: 10.17 | EPS CAGR: 32.68% | SUE: 1.39 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 7.94 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for ALDX Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle