(ALDX) Aldeyra The - Overview
Stock: Reproxalap, ADX-2191, ADX-629, RASP Platform
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 106% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -34.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.73 |
| Alpha | -18.18 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.946 |
| Beta Downside | 1.795 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 88.06% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.05 |
Description: ALDX Aldeyra The December 31, 2025
Aldeyra Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ALDX) is a U.S.-based biotech focused on immune-mediated and metabolic disorders. Its flagship candidate, reproxalap-a reactive aldehyde species (RASP) modulator-is in Phase III trials for dry-eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis. The pipeline also includes ADX-2191 for retinitis pigmentosa, ADX-629 (oral RASP modulator) in Phase II for COVID-19, atopic asthma, psoriasis, and alcohol intoxication, plus several preclinical RASP platforms targeting broader inflammatory and metabolic indications.
As of the most recent filing (Q2 2024), Aldeyra reported a cash runway of roughly $45 million, sufficient to fund operations into late 2025 assuming current burn rates (~$12 million per quarter). The biotech sector’s R&D intensity remains high, with average Phase III success rates around 30 % for ophthalmology indications, suggesting a material upside if reproxalap meets its primary endpoints. Additionally, the company’s market cap (~$150 million) is modest relative to peers, implying a higher potential upside but also greater volatility; any delay in trial timelines could materially affect valuation.
If you’re evaluating niche biotech opportunities, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst notes on ALDX could help surface quantitative risk metrics and comparable peer benchmarks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income: -43.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.52 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -25.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 20.0k% < 20% (prev 25.4k%; Δ -5331 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.52 > 3% & CFO -40.1m > Net Income -43.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (60.1m) vs 12m ago 1.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -2.75% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ -310.9% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.25% > 50% (prev 0.33%; Δ -0.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -21.72 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -41.0m / Interest Expense TTM 1.90m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.63 (Total Current Assets 77.5m - Total Current Liabilities 28.5m) / Total Assets 77.8m |
| B: -6.14 (Retained Earnings -477.5m / Total Assets 77.8m) |
| C: -0.42 (EBIT TTM -41.3m / Avg Total Assets 97.6m) |
| D: -16.72 (Book Value of Equity -477.4m / Total Liabilities 28.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -36.28 = D |
What is the price of ALDX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.17%, over one month by +36.21%, over three months by +14.97% and over the past year by -7.83%.
Is ALDX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALDX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.7 | 74.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.7 | 74.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5.4 | -1.6% |
ALDX Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
Revenue TTM = 244.5k USD
EBIT TTM = -41.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -41.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 15.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 15.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -43.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 265.7m USD (325.5m + Debt 15.5m - CCE 75.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -21.72 (Ebit TTM -41.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.90m)
EV/FCF = -6.63x (Enterprise Value 265.7m / FCF TTM -40.1m)
FCF Yield = -15.08% (FCF TTM -40.1m / Enterprise Value 265.7m)
FCF Margin = -16.4k% (FCF TTM -40.1m / Revenue TTM 244.5k)
Net Margin = -17.7k% (Net Income TTM -43.2m / Revenue TTM 244.5k)
Gross Margin = -2.75% ((Revenue TTM 244.5k - Cost of Revenue TTM 251.2k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.42 (Enterprise Value 265.7m / Total Assets 77.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.06% (Interest Expense 475.9k / Debt 15.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -32.6m (EBIT -41.3m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.72 (Total Current Assets 77.5m / Total Current Liabilities 28.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.32 (Debt 15.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 49.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.07 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -43.8m / EBITDA -41.0m)
Debt / FCF = 1.09 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -43.8m / FCF TTM -40.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 59.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -44.27% (Net Income -43.2m / Total Assets 77.8m)
RoE = -72.25% (Net Income TTM -43.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 59.8m)
RoCE = -55.22% (EBIT -41.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 59.8m + L.T.Debt 15.0m))
RoIC = -43.55% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -32.6m / Invested Capital 74.9m)
WACC = 9.08% (E(325.5m)/V(341.0m) * Re(9.40%) + D(15.5m)/V(341.0m) * Rd(3.06%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.78%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -40.1m)
EPS Correlation: 57.20 | EPS CAGR: 88.76% | SUE: 2.98 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 16.33 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.15 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+0.062 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+165.6% | Growth Revenue=+162.2%