(ALGN) Align Technology - Ratings and Ratios
Clear Aligners, Retainers, Intraoral Scanners, CAD/CAM Software
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 62.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.07% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.53 |
| Alpha | -50.64 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.355 |
| Beta | 1.270 |
| Beta Downside | 0.764 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.59% |
| Mean DD | 34.28% |
| Median DD | 37.03% |
Description: ALGN Align Technology October 30, 2025
Align Technology (NASDAQ:ALGN) designs, manufactures, and markets the Invisalign clear-aligner system, Vivera retainers, and iTero intra-oral scanners, serving dental professionals in the United States, Switzerland, and other international markets.
The Clear Aligner segment bundles Invisalign treatments for adults, teens, and younger children (ages 6-10) through products such as Invisalign First, Invisalign Express, Lite, Moderate, and the Go line, plus ancillary tools like whitening kits, palatal expanders, and 3-D-printed orthodontic devices.
The Imaging Systems & CAD/CAM Services segment centers on the iTero scanner platform, paired with exocad design software, digital record-keeping tools, outcome simulators, and subscription-based services (e.g., pay-per-scan, scanner rentals) that support both orthodontic and restorative workflows.
Key metrics: FY 2024 revenue reached $4.9 billion, up ~13 % YoY, driven by a ~22 % increase in Invisalign case volume and a ~15 % rise in iTero scanner subscriptions. The global clear-aligner market is projected to grow at a 10-12 % CAGR through 2029, fueled by rising consumer preference for aesthetic, low-pain orthodontics and expanding dental insurance coverage for digital treatments.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of ALGN’s valuation multiples and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (378.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 239.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.23pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 14.25% (prev 13.48%; Δ 0.78pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 656.1m > Net Income 378.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-917.3m) to EBITDA (745.3m) ratio: -1.23 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.29 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (72.4m) change vs 12m ago -3.13% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 68.41% (prev 69.98%; Δ -1.58pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 63.22% (prev 62.21%; Δ 1.00pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 365.5 (EBITDA TTM 745.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.56m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.62
| (A) 0.09 = (Total Current Assets 2.53b - Total Current Liabilities 1.97b) / Total Assets 6.23b |
| (B) 0.39 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.42b / Total Assets 6.23b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 571.7m / Avg Total Assets 6.30b |
| (D) 1.09 = Book Value of Equity 2.48b / Total Liabilities 2.28b |
| Total Rating: 3.62 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.81
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.99% |
| 3. FCF Margin 14.23% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.02 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -1.23 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.79)% |
| 7. RoE 9.75% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 35.36% |
| 9. EPS Trend 40.60% |
What is the price of ALGN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.81%, over one month by +14.58%, over three months by +13.00% and over the past year by -30.99%.
Is ALGN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALGN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 184.1 | 17.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 184.1 | 17.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 154.8 | -1.5% |
ALGN Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 27.8353
P/E Forward = 13.2979
P/S = 2.6142
P/B = 2.5847
P/EG = 0.8523
Beta = 1.868
Revenue TTM = 3.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 571.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 745.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 121.3m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 31.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 87.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -917.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.47b USD (10.41b + Debt 87.3m - CCE 1.03b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 365.5 (Ebit TTM 571.7m / Interest Expense TTM 1.56m)
FCF Yield = 5.99% (FCF TTM 566.6m / Enterprise Value 9.47b)
FCF Margin = 14.23% (FCF TTM 566.6m / Revenue TTM 3.98b)
Net Margin = 9.50% (Net Income TTM 378.4m / Revenue TTM 3.98b)
Gross Margin = 68.41% ((Revenue TTM 3.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.26b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.20% (prev 69.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.52 (Enterprise Value 9.47b / Total Assets 6.23b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.79% (Interest Expense 1.56m / Debt 87.3m)
Taxrate = 40.09% (38.0m / 94.7m)
NOPAT = 342.5m (EBIT 571.7m * (1 - 40.09%))
Current Ratio = 1.29 (Total Current Assets 2.53b / Total Current Liabilities 1.97b)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 87.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.23 (Net Debt -917.3m / EBITDA 745.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.62 (Net Debt -917.3m / FCF TTM 566.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.07% (Net Income 378.4m / Total Assets 6.23b)
RoE = 9.75% (Net Income TTM 378.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.88b)
RoCE = 14.29% (EBIT 571.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.88b + L.T.Debt 121.3m))
RoIC = 8.83% (NOPAT 342.5m / Invested Capital 3.88b)
WACC = 10.62% (E(10.41b)/V(10.50b) * Re(10.70%) + D(87.3m)/V(10.50b) * Rd(1.79%) * (1-Tc(0.40)))
Discount Rate = 10.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.26%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.53% ; FCFE base≈489.2m ; Y1≈558.4m ; Y5≈771.8m
Fair Price DCF = 121.0 (DCF Value 8.68b / Shares Outstanding 71.7m; 5y FCF grow 16.51% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 40.60 | EPS CAGR: -2.13% | SUE: 1.67 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 35.36 | Revenue CAGR: -0.93% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.41 | Chg30d=+0.026 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.95 | Chg30d=+0.079 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+7.3% | Growth Revenue=+3.6%
Additional Sources for ALGN Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle