(ALHC) Alignment Healthcare - Ratings and Ratios
Medicare Advantage, Healthcare Platform, Senior Care
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 73.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.21% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.42 |
| Alpha | 79.32 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.35 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.421 |
| Beta | 0.048 |
| Beta Downside | 0.091 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 65.11% |
| Mean DD | 30.63% |
| Median DD | 31.13% |
Description: ALHC Alignment Healthcare November 09, 2025
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) operates a consumer-centric Medicare Advantage platform focused on senior health care in the United States. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Orange, California, the company markets customized health-care experiences through its Medicare Advantage plans, positioning itself within the Health Care Services sub-industry.
Recent data (Q2 2024) show ALHC’s enrollment grew to roughly 30,000 members, a 12 % year-over-year increase, while revenue rose 15 % to $85 million, reflecting higher capitation rates and improved member retention. The senior-care market is being driven by a 10-year CAGR of ~5 % in Medicare Advantage enrollment, an aging U.S. population (≈ 10 % of the population now over 65), and favorable regulatory trends that encourage value-based care models.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s analytics useful for benchmarking ALHC’s valuation and performance metrics against its peers.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (-20.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 218.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.16 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 42.60pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 10.29% (prev 8.73%; Δ 1.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 (>3.0%) and CFO 181.6m > Net Income -20.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-288.4m) to EBITDA (29.0m) ratio: -9.94 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.61 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (208.9m) change vs 12m ago 9.18% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 12.42% (prev 10.45%; Δ 1.96pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 405.3% (prev 356.5%; Δ 48.82pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -0.03 (EBITDA TTM 29.0m / Interest Expense TTM 17.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.84
| (A) 0.34 = (Total Current Assets 985.3m - Total Current Liabilities 611.1m) / Total Assets 1.10b |
| (B) -0.91 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -998.0m / Total Assets 1.10b |
| (C) -0.00 = EBIT TTM -440.0k / Avg Total Assets 897.5m |
| (D) -1.06 = Book Value of Equity -997.8m / Total Liabilities 940.7m |
| Total Rating: -1.84 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 57.80
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.74% |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.74% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.04 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -9.94 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -5.90)% |
| 7. RoE -16.29% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 97.98% |
| 9. EPS Trend 71.24% |
What is the price of ALHC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.71%, over one month by +10.02%, over three months by +24.49% and over the past year by +88.16%.
Is ALHC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALHC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 21.5 | 0.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 21.5 | 0.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.7 | 6.6% |
ALHC Fundamental Data Overview January 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 227.2727
P/S = 1.0865
P/B = 24.4133
Beta = 1.164
Revenue TTM = 3.64b USD
EBIT TTM = -440.0k USD
EBITDA TTM = 29.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 322.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.21m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 329.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -288.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.64b USD (3.95b + Debt 329.7m - CCE 644.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.03 (Ebit TTM -440.0k / Interest Expense TTM 17.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.74% (FCF TTM 172.3m / Enterprise Value 3.64b)
FCF Margin = 4.74% (FCF TTM 172.3m / Revenue TTM 3.64b)
Net Margin = -0.57% (Net Income TTM -20.8m / Revenue TTM 3.64b)
Gross Margin = 12.42% ((Revenue TTM 3.64b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.65% (prev 13.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.30 (Enterprise Value 3.64b / Total Assets 1.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.20% (Interest Expense 3.95m / Debt 329.7m)
Taxrate = 0.05% (2000 / 3.73m)
NOPAT = -439.8k (EBIT -440.0k * (1 - 0.05%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.61 (Total Current Assets 985.3m / Total Current Liabilities 611.1m)
Debt / Equity = 2.04 (Debt 329.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 161.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -9.94 (Net Debt -288.4m / EBITDA 29.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.67 (Net Debt -288.4m / FCF TTM 172.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 127.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.89% (Net Income -20.8m / Total Assets 1.10b)
RoE = -16.29% (Net Income TTM -20.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 127.7m)
RoCE = -0.10% (EBIT -440.0k / Capital Employed (Equity 127.7m + L.T.Debt 322.7m))
RoIC = -0.10% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -439.8k / Invested Capital 449.8m)
WACC = 5.81% (E(3.95b)/V(4.28b) * Re(6.19%) + D(329.7m)/V(4.28b) * Rd(1.20%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 6.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.33%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈172.3m ; Y1≈113.1m ; Y5≈51.7m
Fair Price DCF = 5.08 (DCF Value 1.02b / Shares Outstanding 200.1m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 71.24 | EPS CAGR: 38.96% | SUE: 1.92 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 97.98 | Revenue CAGR: 37.84% | SUE: 0.92 | # QB: 10
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=+0.022 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+75.3% | Growth Revenue=+30.4%
Additional Sources for ALHC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle