(ALMS) Alumis - Overview
Stock: TYK2 Inhibitor, CNS TYK2 Inhibitor, IRF5 Program
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 90.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.63 |
| Alpha | 282.68 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.819 |
| Beta Downside | -0.229 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 82.50% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.43 |
Description: ALMS Alumis December 30, 2025
Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMS) is a clinical-stage biopharma firm that targets autoimmune and neuroinflammatory disorders through selective inhibition of tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2). Its lead assets are ESK-001, an allosteric TYK2 inhibitor being evaluated for plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus, and A-005, a CNS-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor aimed at neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company also pursues interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) programs to modulate broader immune dysfunction.
Founded in 2021 (formerly Esker Therapeutics) and headquartered in South San Francisco, Alumis operates in the Biotechnology sub-industry and trades as a common stock under the ticker ALMS. The firm’s cash position stood at roughly $45 million at the end of Q3 2024, providing an estimated runway of 12-15 months at its current burn rate of $10 million per quarter, according to its latest 10-Q filing.
Key sector drivers that could influence Alumis’s upside include the growing global prevalence of autoimmune diseases-projected to affect over 5 % of the population by 2030-and sustained venture-backed funding in early-stage biotech, which has kept the average pre-clinical valuation at a 20 % premium year-over-year. However, the company’s valuation remains highly sensitive to Phase II readouts for ESK-001 and the CNS exposure data for A-005, both of which are slated for release in early 2025.
For a deeper, data-centric view of Alumis’s risk-adjusted upside, you might find ValueRay’s analyst framework useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -245.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.77 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -24.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.76 > 3% & CFO -372.4m > Net Income -245.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.1m) vs 12m ago 93.68% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.59% > 50% (prev 0.0%; Δ 5.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.46 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -424.4m / Interest Expense TTM -174.2m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.67 (Total Current Assets 393.3m - Total Current Liabilities 65.4m) / Total Assets 488.0m |
| B: -1.66 (Retained Earnings -808.9m / Total Assets 488.0m) |
| C: -0.95 (EBIT TTM -427.9m / Avg Total Assets 450.3m) |
| D: -7.83 (Book Value of Equity -808.7m / Total Liabilities 103.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -15.61 = D |
What is the price of ALMS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.14%, over one month by +33.54%, over three months by +417.23% and over the past year by +441.91%.
Is ALMS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALMS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 37.3 | 42.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 37.3 | 42.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 30.9 | 18.3% |
ALMS Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/B = 8.6979
Revenue TTM = 25.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -427.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -424.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 37.8m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.41m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 37.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -27.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.72b USD (3.06b + Debt 37.8m - CCE 377.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.46 (Ebit TTM -427.9m / Interest Expense TTM -174.2m)
EV/FCF = -7.27x (Enterprise Value 2.72b / FCF TTM -373.4m)
FCF Yield = -13.75% (FCF TTM -373.4m / Enterprise Value 2.72b)
FCF Margin = -1484 % (FCF TTM -373.4m / Revenue TTM 25.2m)
Net Margin = -974.5% (Net Income TTM -245.2m / Revenue TTM 25.2m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 25.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 820.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.57 (Enterprise Value 2.72b / Total Assets 488.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = -460.8% (Interest Expense -174.2m / Debt 37.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -338.0m (EBIT -427.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.01 (Total Current Assets 393.3m / Total Current Liabilities 65.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 37.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 384.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.06 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -27.5m / EBITDA -424.4m)
Debt / FCF = 0.07 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -27.5m / FCF TTM -373.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 324.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -54.44% (Net Income -245.2m / Total Assets 488.0m)
RoE = -75.52% (Net Income TTM -245.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 324.6m)
RoCE = -118.1% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -427.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 324.6m + L.T.Debt 37.8m))
RoIC = -104.1% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -338.0m / Invested Capital 324.6m)
WACC = 8.82% (E(3.06b)/V(3.09b) * Re(8.93%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 41.71%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -373.4m)
EPS Correlation: 69.40 | EPS CAGR: 640.7% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.68 | Revenue CAGR: 36.78% | SUE: -0.15 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.71 | Chg30d=+0.070 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.17 | Chg30d=+0.043 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-10.0% | Growth Revenue=-67.7%