ALMS Stock Analysis: Alumis | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.477m USD | 12M Return: 784.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 37.1M
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMS) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing treatments for autoimmune disorders. Its lead candidate, envudeucitinib, is an oral tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor being studied for plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus. The pipeline also includes A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor in Phase 1 development for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases, lonigutamab, an anti-IGF-1R monoclonal antibody aimed at thyroid eye disease, and a program targeting interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) to address immune dysfunction.
As a clinical-stage biotech, Alumis has not yet commercialized a product and relies on capital markets to fund research and development, a common model for small and mid-cap biopharma companies prior to first revenue. The company was incorporated in 2021 in South San Francisco, California, was previously named Esker Therapeutics, and went public on NASDAQ in June 2024.
- Envudeucitinib Phase 3 plaque psoriasis data readout pivotal for approval
- TYK2 competitive pressure intensifies from BMS Sotyktu market expansion
- Cash burn rate raises potential dilutive financing risk
| Net Income: -237.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.56 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 55.91 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.49k% < 20% (prev 808.2%; Δ 4.68k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.56 > 3% & CFO -376.2m > Net Income -237.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 7.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (125.1m) vs 12m ago 130.4% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 58.39% > 18% (prev 84.57%; Δ -26.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.80% > 50% (prev 7.82%; Δ -6.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 532.4m - Total Current Liabilities 70.9m) / Total Assets 671.6m |
| B: -1.48 (Retained Earnings -994.9m / Total Assets 671.6m) |
| C: -0.90 (EBIT TTM -417.6m / Avg Total Assets 466.4m) |
| D: 5.42 (Book Value of Equity 567.0m / Total Liabilities 104.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.64 = B |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 2.73m/1.29m, Revenue 8.40m/20.4m) |
| GMI: 1.45 (GM 84.57% / 58.39%) |
| AQI: 34.07 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.41 (Revenue 8.40m / 20.4m) |
| TATA: 0.21 (NI -237.4m - CFO -376.2m) / TA 671.6m) |
| Beneish M = 18.24 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.27 with a total of 3,120,620 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.85%, over one month by +54.13%, over three months by +31.20% and over the past year by +784.29%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.40 (which is 9.8% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Alumis has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALMS.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 40.1 | 37% |
P/S = 413.7951
P/B = 5.9584
Revenue TTM = 8.40m USD
EBIT TTM = -417.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -414.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 31.2m USD (estimated: total debt 35.7m - short term 4.44m)
Short Term Debt = 4.44m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 35.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 35.7m already included)
Net Debt = -487.3m USD (calculated: Debt 35.7m - CCE 522.9m)
Enterprise Value = 2.99b USD (3.48b + Debt 35.7m - CCE 522.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -417.6m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = -7.93x (Enterprise Value 2.99b / FCF TTM -377.0m)
FCF Yield = -12.61% (FCF TTM -377.0m / Enterprise Value 2.99b)
FCF Margin = -4.49k% (FCF TTM -377.0m / Revenue TTM 8.40m)
Net Margin = -2.83k% (Net Income TTM -237.4m / Revenue TTM 8.40m)
Gross Margin = 58.39% ((Revenue TTM 8.40m - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.50m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.97% (prev 55.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.45 (Enterprise Value 2.99b / Total Assets 671.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 35.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -329.9m (EBIT -417.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.51 (Total Current Assets 532.4m / Total Current Liabilities 70.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 35.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 567.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.18 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -487.3m / EBITDA -414.1m)
Debt / FCF = 1.29 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -487.3m / FCF TTM -377.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 434.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -50.90% (Net Income -237.4m / Total Assets 671.6m)
RoE = -54.63% (Net Income TTM -237.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 434.6m)
RoCE = -89.64% (EBIT -417.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 434.6m + L.T.Debt 31.2m))
RoIC = -54.55% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -329.9m / Invested Capital 604.7m)
WACC = 9.05% (E(3.48b)/V(3.51b) * Re(9.14%) + D(35.7m)/V(3.51b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 80.90 | Cagr: 47.90%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -377.0m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.71 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.72 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.90 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+37.0% | GrowthRev=-67.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-2.95 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-1.8% | GrowthRev=+205.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +73% (up=8, down=0)