ALRM Stock Analysis: Alarm.com Holdings | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.291m USD | 12M Return: 29.6% | US0116421050 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 32.0M
EPS Trend: 92.2%
Qual. Beats: 10
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 10
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) is a software platform provider for connected residential and commercial properties, operating primarily through a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model in the smart property and IoT security market. The company reports under two segments-Alarm.com and Other-and offers a broad suite of solutions spanning alarm transmission, video monitoring and analytics, smart energy management, access control, fleet tracking, and shooter detection, along with its OpenEye video surveillance offering.
The business serves both residential and enterprise customers, selling largely through a network of authorized service providers and dealers rather than directly to end users, which is a common go-to-market approach in the monitored security industry. Founded in 2000 and headquartered in Tysons, Virginia, Alarm.com generates revenue from recurring software subscriptions and connected hardware, and it also provides sales, marketing, training, and business management support to its service provider partners.
- Recurring SaaS revenue growth and dollar-based net retention rates
- DIY competition from Ring and Nest pressures subscriber acquisition costs
- Commercial video and OpenEye acquisition expands addressable market and margins
| Net Income: 117.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.50 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 60.30% < 20% (prev 64.59%; Δ -4.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 249.7m > Net Income 117.9m |
| Net Debt (164.4m) to EBITDA (220.2m): 0.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.9m) vs 12m ago -7.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.42% > 18% (prev 65.77%; Δ -2.35% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 56.51% > 50% (prev 46.51%; Δ 10.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.76 > 6 (EBIT TTM 170.8m / Interest Expense TTM 15.9m) |
| A: 0.39 (Total Current Assets 801.4m - Total Current Liabilities 161.6m) / Total Assets 1.66b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 570.7m / Total Assets 1.66b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 170.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.88b) |
| D: 1.16 (Book Value of Equity 864.5m / Total Liabilities 746.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.48 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 161.7m/122.3m, Revenue 1.06b/975.9m) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 65.77% / 63.42%) |
| AQI: 1.49 (AQ_t 0.48 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 1.06b / 975.9m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 117.9m - CFO 249.7m) / TA 1.66b) |
| Beneish M = -2.47 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of November 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.39 with a total of 569,894 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.97%, over one month by +17.50%, over three months by +15.84% and over the past year by +29.59%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 62.90 (which is 3.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Alarm.com Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ALRM.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 65 | -0.6% |
P/E Trailing = 29.6593
P/E Forward = 26.2467
P/S = 3.0355
P/B = 3.8065
P/EG = 1.4056
Revenue TTM = 1.06b USD
EBIT TTM = 170.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 220.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 491.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.94m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 643.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 76.4m
Net Debt = 164.4m USD (calculated: Debt 643.8m - CCE 479.4m)
Enterprise Value = 3.45b USD (3.29b + Debt 643.8m - CCE 479.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.76 (Ebit TTM 170.8m / Interest Expense TTM 15.9m)
EV/FCF = 14.57x (Enterprise Value 3.45b / FCF TTM 237.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.86% (FCF TTM 237.2m / Enterprise Value 3.45b)
FCF Margin = 22.35% (FCF TTM 237.2m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Net Margin = 11.11% (Net Income TTM 117.9m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Gross Margin = 63.42% ((Revenue TTM 1.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 388.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 65.56% (prev 62.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.09 (Enterprise Value 3.45b / Total Assets 1.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.47% (Interest Expense 15.9m / Debt 643.8m)
Taxrate = 24.27% (37.6m / 154.9m)
NOPAT = 129.3m (EBIT 170.8m * (1 - 24.27%))
Current Ratio = 4.96 (Total Current Assets 801.4m / Total Current Liabilities 161.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.74 (Debt 643.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 864.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.75 (Net Debt 164.4m / EBITDA 220.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.69 (Net Debt 164.4m / FCF TTM 237.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 849.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.28% (Net Income 117.9m / Total Assets 1.66b)
RoE = 13.87% (Net Income TTM 117.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 849.9m)
RoCE = 12.73% (EBIT 170.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 849.9m + L.T.Debt 491.1m))
RoIC = 8.92% (NOPAT 129.3m / Invested Capital 1.45b)
WACC = 7.00% (E(3.29b)/V(3.93b) * Re(8.0%) + D(643.8m)/V(3.93b) * Rd(2.47%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -13.85 | Cagr: 0.71%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈207.8m ; Y1≈238.3m ; Y5≈350.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 104.1 (EV 5.28b - Net Debt 164.4m = Equity 5.11b / Shares 49.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.18 | EPS CAGR: 10.24% | SUE: 2.81 | # QB: 10
Revenue Correlation: 99.75 | Revenue CAGR: 7.57% | SUE: 3.66 | # QB: 10
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=+1.30% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.92 | Chg30d=+1.01% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+11.5% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.08 | Chg30d=+0.30% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+5.4% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +53% (up=10, down=2)