(ALRM) Alarm.com Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Security, Monitoring, Video, Automation, Energy
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 42.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.45% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.92 |
| Alpha | -35.31 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.05 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.437 |
| Beta | 0.882 |
| Beta Downside | 0.729 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.73% |
| Mean DD | 16.30% |
| Median DD | 16.12% |
Description: ALRM Alarm.com Holdings November 09, 2025
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) develops and sells a cloud-based platform that connects and manages Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices for residential, multi-family, small-business, and enterprise customers across North America and select international markets. The business is organized into the “Alarm.com” and “Other” segments, each delivering subscription-based services that integrate security, automation, and energy-management functionalities.
The company’s product suite includes remote control of door locks, garage doors, thermostats, and video cameras, as well as advanced video analytics, AI-driven deterrence, vacation watch, and smart-doorbell solutions. Additional offerings span HVAC monitoring, whole-home water safety, solar-panel oversight, demand-response programs, commercial-grade video analytics, access-control systems, fleet-management tools, and a permission-based portal that consolidates account management, sales enablement, training, and support services.
In its latest fiscal quarter (Q3 2024), Alarm.com reported subscription revenue of $115 million, representing a 15 % year-over-year increase and pushing total annual recurring revenue (ARR) above $1.2 billion. The firm’s gross margin on subscription services remains near 80 %, while churn is estimated at roughly 5 % annually-both metrics that signal strong customer stickiness. Growth is being driven by macro trends such as rising consumer adoption of smart-home security, heightened regulatory focus on false-alarm reduction, and utility-led demand-response incentives that favor integrated IoT platforms.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of ALRM’s valuation dynamics and competitive positioning, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income (128.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 59.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.80pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 69.74% (prev 135.3%; Δ -65.55pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 173.7m > Net Income 128.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (674.0k) to EBITDA (222.6m) ratio: 0.00 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.06 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (58.5m) change vs 12m ago -2.21% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 72.42% (prev 64.95%; Δ 7.47pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 48.44% (prev 46.87%; Δ 1.57pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 10.46 (EBITDA TTM 222.6m / Interest Expense TTM 17.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.90
| (A) 0.33 = (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 654.0m) / Total Assets 2.12b |
| (B) 0.23 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 488.1m / Total Assets 2.12b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 181.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.05b |
| (D) 0.40 = Book Value of Equity 491.2m / Total Liabilities 1.24b |
| Total Rating: 3.90 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.66
| 1. Piotroski 7.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.94% |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.62% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.29 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.00 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.50)% |
| 7. RoE 16.48% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.16% |
| 9. EPS Trend 76.88% |
What is the price of ALRM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.20%, over one month by +7.53%, over three months by -6.49% and over the past year by -23.42%.
Is ALRM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALRM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 66.7 | 28.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 66.7 | 28.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 49.5 | -4.5% |
ALRM Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 22.1568
P/E Forward = 26.2467
P/S = 2.6312
P/B = 3.1416
P/EG = 1.5425
Beta = 0.887
Revenue TTM = 991.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 181.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 222.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 488.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 509.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 674.0k USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.61b USD (2.61b + Debt 1.07b - CCE 1.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.46 (Ebit TTM 181.1m / Interest Expense TTM 17.3m)
FCF Yield = 5.94% (FCF TTM 154.9m / Enterprise Value 2.61b)
FCF Margin = 15.62% (FCF TTM 154.9m / Revenue TTM 991.8m)
Net Margin = 12.92% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Revenue TTM 991.8m)
Gross Margin = 72.42% ((Revenue TTM 991.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 273.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.55% (prev 65.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.23 (Enterprise Value 2.61b / Total Assets 2.12b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.41% (Interest Expense 4.33m / Debt 1.07b)
Taxrate = 30.22% (15.2m / 50.3m)
NOPAT = 126.3m (EBIT 181.1m * (1 - 30.22%))
Current Ratio = 2.06 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 654.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.29 (Debt 1.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 827.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.00 (Net Debt 674.0k / EBITDA 222.6m)
Debt / FCF = 0.00 (Net Debt 674.0k / FCF TTM 154.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 777.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.04% (Net Income 128.2m / Total Assets 2.12b)
RoE = 16.48% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 777.7m)
RoCE = 14.30% (EBIT 181.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 777.7m + L.T.Debt 488.9m))
RoIC = 7.17% (NOPAT 126.3m / Invested Capital 1.76b)
WACC = 6.66% (E(2.61b)/V(3.68b) * Re(9.27%) + D(1.07b)/V(3.68b) * Rd(0.41%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.45%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.56% ; FCFE base≈164.7m ; Y1≈203.2m ; Y5≈346.6m
Fair Price DCF = 94.48 (DCF Value 4.71b / Shares Outstanding 49.9m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 76.88 | EPS CAGR: 16.40% | SUE: 2.90 | # QB: 6
Revenue Correlation: 96.16 | Revenue CAGR: 7.53% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 7
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=+0.043 | Revisions Net=+7 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.69 | Chg30d=+0.171 | Revisions Net=+8 | Growth EPS=+7.8% | Growth Revenue=+4.1%
Additional Sources for ALRM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle