ALRM Stock Analysis: Alarm.com Holdings | NASDAQ

Security Monitoring, Video Surveillance, Access Control, Energy Management

Total Rating 60

Safety 76

Buy Signal 0.87

Software - Application
Industry Rotation: +9.2

Market Cap: 2.78B
Avg Turnover: 22.3M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility29.9%

VaR 5^th Pctl4.75%

VaR vs Median-3.47%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.20

Rel. Str. IBD67.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group61.6

Character TTM

Beta0.782

Beta Downside0.743

Hurst Exponent0.436

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD44.34%

CAGR/Max DD-0.02

CAGR/Mean DD-0.03

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 10.06%
EPS Trend: 92.2%

Last SUE: 3.58
Qual. Beats: 9

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 7.16%
Rev. Trend: 99.7%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 9

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Pead

Seasonality 11.1 years of data

Jan -0.8% 13

Feb -0.8% 13

Mar -3.4% 16

Apr +1.1% 0

May +3.7% 18

Jun +2.6% 18

Jul +4.0% 35

Aug -0.4% 0

Sep -1.1% 46

Oct -0.9% 2

Nov +1.5% 13

Dec +0.6% 16

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ALRM Alarm.com Holdings

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) is a U.S.-based software provider that operates a cloud-based platform for connected residential and commercial properties across North America and internationally. Founded in 2000 and headquartered in Tysons, Virginia, the company has been publicly traded since its 2015 IPO and is classified within the GICS Information Technology sector, specifically the Application Software sub-industry. It reports through two segments: Alarm.com and Other, the latter encompassing acquisitions such as OpenEye.

The companys offerings span a broad range of smart-property solutions delivered primarily through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model. For residential customers, it provides intrusion alarm transmission, smart arming, video monitoring with AI-driven analytics, video doorbells, energy and HVAC management, and water-leak detection. For commercial customers, its portfolio includes enterprise-grade video surveillance, access control, multi-site management, connected fleet solutions, temperature monitoring, and inventory protection. Through OpenEye, Alarm.com also sells video surveillance-as-a-service, cameras, recorders, and related peripherals, along with forensic video search and POS integration tools. Additional products include shooter detection systems and AI-powered enhancements aimed at improving professional monitoring accuracy and reducing false alarms.

Alarm.com distributes its solutions primarily through a service provider channel, offering installation, support, business management, and sales/marketing services to dealers. It also operates a home builder program. As an Application Software company, Alarm.com benefits from recurring SaaS revenue tied to subscriptions across its installed base of monitored properties, a business model common among cloud-based platform providers in the broader smart-home and proptech ecosystem.

Headlines to Watch Out For

SaaS subscriber growth and ARR expansion drive recurring revenue
Smart home competition intensifies from Ring, Google Nest, and ADT platforms
Homebuilder channel revenue exposed to US new construction cycle

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.0

Net Income: 128.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.21 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 62.24% < 20% (prev 81.15%; Δ -18.92% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 179.9m > Net Income 128.2m
Net Debt (145.6m) to EBITDA (223.7m): 0.65 < 3
Current Ratio: 5.16 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.3m) vs 12m ago -6.25% < -2%
Gross Margin: 63.38% > 18% (prev 65.68%; Δ -2.30% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 55.77% > 50% (prev 45.99%; Δ 9.78% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.80 > 6 (EBIT TTM 179.8m / Interest Expense TTM 16.7m)

Altman Z'' 5.53

A: 0.39 (Total Current Assets 801.0m - Total Current Liabilities 155.3m) / Total Assets 1.64b
B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 546.5m / Total Assets 1.64b)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 179.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.86b)
D: 1.16 (Book Value of Equity 859.8m / Total Liabilities 739.8m)
Altman-Z'' = 5.53 = AAA

Beneish M -2.36

DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 141.4m/118.8m, Revenue 1.04b/955.4m)
GMI: 1.04 (GM 65.68% / 63.38%)
AQI: 1.84 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.24)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 1.04b / 955.4m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 128.2m - CFO 179.9m) / TA 1.64b)
Beneish M = -2.36 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB

What is the price of ALRM shares?

As of August 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 56.37 with a total of 341,318 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.89%, over one month by +7.91%, over three months by +28.93% and over the past year by +5.56%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 51.70 (which is 8.3% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).

Is ALRM a buy, sell or hold?

Alarm.com Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.78. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ALRM.

StrongBuy: 3
Buy: 2
Hold: 3
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ALRM price?

Analysts Target Price	60	6.4%

Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 2.78b (2.78b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.3568
P/E Forward = 26.2467
P/S = 2.6834
P/B = 3.1489
P/EG = 1.4056
Revenue TTM = 1.04b USD
EBIT TTM = 179.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 223.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 490.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.62m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 643.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 76.4m
Net Debt = 145.6m USD (calculated: Debt 643.1m - CCE 497.4m)
Enterprise Value = 2.93b USD (2.78b + Debt 643.1m - CCE 497.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.80 (Ebit TTM 179.8m / Interest Expense TTM 16.7m)
EV/FCF = 17.42x (Enterprise Value 2.93b / FCF TTM 168.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.74% (FCF TTM 168.2m / Enterprise Value 2.93b)
FCF Margin = 16.21% (FCF TTM 168.2m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Net Margin = 12.36% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Gross Margin = 63.38% ((Revenue TTM 1.04b - Cost of Revenue TTM 379.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.44% (prev 62.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.78 (Enterprise Value 2.93b / Total Assets 1.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.59% (Interest Expense 16.7m / Debt 643.1m)
Taxrate = 22.13% (36.2m / 163.5m)
NOPAT = 140.0m (EBIT 179.8m * (1 - 22.13%))
Current Ratio = 5.16 (Total Current Assets 801.0m / Total Current Liabilities 155.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 643.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 859.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.65 (Net Debt 145.6m / EBITDA 223.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.87 (Net Debt 145.6m / FCF TTM 168.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 833.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.89% (Net Income 128.2m / Total Assets 1.64b)
RoE = 15.39% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 833.1m)
RoCE = 13.59% (EBIT 179.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 833.1m + L.T.Debt 490.4m))
RoIC = 9.70% (NOPAT 140.0m / Invested Capital 1.44b)
WACC = 7.47% (E(2.78b)/V(3.43b) * Re(8.73%) + D(643.1m)/V(3.43b) * Rd(2.59%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 30.62 | Cagr: 1.37%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.55% ; FCFF base≈167.6m ; Y1≈169.5m ; Y5≈182.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 54.26 (EV 2.83b - Net Debt 145.6m = Equity 2.68b / Shares 49.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.87% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.19 | EPS CAGR: 10.06% | SUE: 3.58 | # QB: 9
Revenue Correlation: 99.70 | Revenue CAGR: 7.16% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 9
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.35% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.83 | Chg30d=+1.90% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.00 | Chg30d=+1.12% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)