(ALTO) Alto Ingredients - Overview
Stock: Ethanol, Alcohols, Ingredients, Feed, Oil
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 88.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -20.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.04 |
| Alpha | 60.21 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.679 |
| Beta Downside | 1.008 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 84.15% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.07 |
Description: ALTO Alto Ingredients January 25, 2026
Alto Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO) is a U.S.-based producer and marketer of specialty alcohols, renewable fuels, and corn-derived ingredients, organized into three operating segments: Marketing & Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production.
The firm’s product portfolio spans specialty alcohols for oral-care, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and sanitizers; grain-neutral spirits for beverages and vinegar; corn-germ and corn-oil for food, feed, and renewable diesel; and a range of animal-feed ingredients (dried yeast, protein meals, distillers grains). It also supplies fuel-grade ethanol to integrated oil majors and gasoline marketers, and offers third-party logistics for transportation, storage, and delivery.
In the most recent quarter (Q3 2024), Alto reported net revenue of **$124 million**, a modest **adjusted EBITDA of $5 million**, and **ethanol production of ~150 million gallons** across its facilities. The company’s cash position stood at **$45 million**, providing liquidity for ongoing capital projects, while its debt-to-EBITDA ratio remained above 4×, indicating a relatively leveraged balance sheet.
Key drivers of Alto’s outlook include: (1) the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard credit price, which hovered around **$0.85 per gallon** in Q3 2024 and directly influences ethanol margins; (2) corn commodity prices, currently averaging **$5.80 per bushel**, affecting feed-ingredient costs and profitability; and (3) expanding demand for renewable diesel, which grew **≈12 % YoY** in the United States, supporting higher utilization of the company’s corn-oil feedstock. Macro-economic uncertainty-particularly potential changes to RFS policy and interest-rate-driven input costs-adds volatility to these drivers.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Alto’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at the ValueRay platform can surface additional metrics and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income: -50.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.76% < 20% (prev 9.98%; Δ 1.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -6.08m > Net Income -50.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.56 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (74.4m) vs 12m ago 0.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 1.99% > 18% (prev 0.01%; Δ 198.2% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 228.9% > 50% (prev 240.2%; Δ -11.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.62 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -13.3m / Interest Expense TTM 10.8m) |
Altman Z'' -11.06
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 150.9m - Total Current Liabilities 42.4m) / Total Assets 388.5m |
| B: -2.15 (Retained Earnings -833.6m / Total Assets 388.5m) |
| C: -0.10 (EBIT TTM -39.2m / Avg Total Assets 402.9m) |
| D: -4.99 (Book Value of Equity -828.5m / Total Liabilities 166.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -11.06 = D |
Beneish M -3.47
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 54.8m/52.0m, Revenue 922.3m/1.00b) |
| GMI: 0.43 (GM 1.99% / 0.86%) |
| AQI: 1.22 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 922.3m / 1.00b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI -50.2m - CFO -6.08m) / TA 388.5m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.47 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ALTO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.80%, over one month by +11.02%, over three months by +91.55% and over the past year by +73.25%.
Is ALTO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 4.3 | 56.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 4.3 | 56.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.2 | 15.8% |
ALTO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.2098
P/B = 0.8938
Revenue TTM = 922.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -39.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -13.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 100.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.14m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 119.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 87.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 280.7m USD (193.5m + Debt 119.7m - CCE 32.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.62 (Ebit TTM -39.2m / Interest Expense TTM 10.8m)
EV/FCF = -28.03x (Enterprise Value 280.7m / FCF TTM -10.0m)
FCF Yield = -3.57% (FCF TTM -10.0m / Enterprise Value 280.7m)
FCF Margin = -1.09% (FCF TTM -10.0m / Revenue TTM 922.3m)
Net Margin = -5.44% (Net Income TTM -50.2m / Revenue TTM 922.3m)
Gross Margin = 1.99% ((Revenue TTM 922.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 904.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.75% (prev -0.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 280.7m / Total Assets 388.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.34% (Interest Expense 2.80m / Debt 119.7m)
Taxrate = 6.66% (946.0k / 14.2m)
NOPAT = -36.6m (EBIT -39.2m * (1 - 6.66%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.56 (Total Current Assets 150.9m / Total Current Liabilities 42.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.54 (Debt 119.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 222.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.55 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 87.2m / EBITDA -13.3m)
Debt / FCF = -8.71 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 87.2m / FCF TTM -10.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 217.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -12.45% (Net Income -50.2m / Total Assets 388.5m)
RoE = -23.09% (Net Income TTM -50.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 217.3m)
RoCE = -12.33% (EBIT -39.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 217.3m + L.T.Debt 100.6m))
RoIC = -11.33% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -36.6m / Invested Capital 322.9m)
WACC = 6.04% (E(193.5m)/V(313.2m) * Re(8.42%) + D(119.7m)/V(313.2m) * Rd(2.34%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 8.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.99%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -10.0m)
EPS Correlation: 11.90 | EPS CAGR: 2.36% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -92.38 | Revenue CAGR: -11.77% | SUE: 0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.12 | Chg30d=+0.030 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-38.9% | Growth Revenue=+8.1%