ALTO Stock Analysis: Alto Ingredients | NASDAQ
Specialty Chemicals | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 268m USD | 12M Return: 208.9% | US0215131063 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.68M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -90.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alto Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO) is a U.S. producer and marketer of specialty alcohols, renewable fuel, and essential ingredients, operating across three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production. The company runs alcohol production facilities and sells fuel-grade ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers, making it part of the broader renewable fuels supply chain.
The companys product portfolio spans multiple end markets. Its specialty alcohols serve health, home, and beauty applications including mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and sanitizers, while grain neutral spirits are sold to alcoholic beverage and vinegar producers. In the renewable fuel space, it produces fuel-grade ethanol used as a transportation fuel additive and distillers corn oil that serves as a feedstock for renewable diesel and biodiesel. Co-products such as dried yeast, corn protein meal, distillers grains, and liquid CO2 are sold into commercial animal feed, pet food, and food-grade applications.
Alto Ingredients was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois. The company was originally named Pacific Ethanol, Inc. before rebranding to Alto Ingredients in January 2021, reflecting a strategic shift toward a diversified specialty ingredients and low-carbon fuels platform beyond pure ethanol production. As an ethanol and corn oil producer, its margins are closely tied to corn input costs, energy prices, and the regulatory environment for renewable fuels such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
- Ethanol margins swing with corn and gasoline prices
- Renewable diesel demand lifts distillers corn oil premiums
- Specialty alcohol pricing drives Pekin Campus margins
| Net Income: 51.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.91 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.71% < 20% (prev 11.49%; Δ 0.22% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 65.0m > Net Income 51.7m |
| Net Debt (81.4m) to EBITDA (76.1m): 1.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.19 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (77.1m) vs 12m ago 3.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.62% > 18% (prev 0.56%; Δ 5.06% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 238.8% > 50% (prev 237.4%; Δ 1.38% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM 50.7m / Interest Expense TTM 9.38m) |
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 160.8m - Total Current Liabilities 50.4m) / Total Assets 397.1m |
| B: -2.01 (Retained Earnings -796.7m / Total Assets 397.1m) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 50.7m / Avg Total Assets 395.1m) |
| D: 1.89 (Book Value of Equity 259.9m / Total Liabilities 137.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.87 = D |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 67.9m/57.5m, Revenue 943.3m/933.1m) |
| GMI: 0.10 (GM 0.56% / 5.62%) |
| AQI: 2.39 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 943.3m / 933.1m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 51.7m - CFO 65.0m) / TA 397.1m) |
| Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.49 with a total of 1,070,212 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.64%, over one month by -10.74%, over three months by -36.66% and over the past year by +208.85%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.30 (which is 5.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Alto Ingredients has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALTO.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 8.3 | 138.7% |
P/E Trailing = 5.0735
P/E Forward = 13.6426
P/S = 0.2837
P/B = 1.1402
P/EG = 0.7993
Revenue TTM = 943.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 50.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 76.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 60.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.92m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 105.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 22.5m
Net Debt = 81.4m USD (calculated: Debt 105.4m - CCE 24.0m)
Enterprise Value = 349.1m USD (267.6m + Debt 105.4m - CCE 24.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.40 (Ebit TTM 50.7m / Interest Expense TTM 9.38m)
EV/FCF = 6.99x (Enterprise Value 349.1m / FCF TTM 49.9m)
FCF Yield = 14.31% (FCF TTM 49.9m / Enterprise Value 349.1m)
FCF Margin = 5.29% (FCF TTM 49.9m / Revenue TTM 943.3m)
Net Margin = 5.48% (Net Income TTM 51.7m / Revenue TTM 943.3m)
Gross Margin = 5.62% ((Revenue TTM 943.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 890.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.77% (prev 7.85%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 349.1m / Total Assets 397.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.90% (Interest Expense 9.38m / Debt 105.4m)
Taxrate = 0.0% (0.0 / 11.7m)
NOPAT = 50.7m (EBIT 50.7m * (1 - 0.00%))
Current Ratio = 3.19 (Total Current Assets 160.8m / Total Current Liabilities 50.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.41 (Debt 105.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 259.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.07 (Net Debt 81.4m / EBITDA 76.1m)
Debt / FCF = 1.63 (Net Debt 81.4m / FCF TTM 49.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 244.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.08% (Net Income 51.7m / Total Assets 397.1m)
RoE = 21.15% (Net Income TTM 51.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 244.3m)
RoCE = 16.62% (EBIT 50.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 244.3m + L.T.Debt 60.5m))
RoIC = 15.46% (NOPAT 50.7m / Invested Capital 327.6m)
WACC = 8.66% (E(267.6m)/V(373.0m) * Re(8.56%) + D(105.4m)/V(373.0m) * Rd(8.90%) * (1-Tc(0.0)))
Discount Rate = 8.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 92.69 | Cagr: 2.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.37% ; FCFF base≈49.9m ; Y1≈50.1m ; Y5≈53.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 9.07 (EV 785.3m - Net Debt 81.4m = Equity 703.8m / Shares 77.6m; r=8.66% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.44 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -90.06 | Revenue CAGR: -11.19% | SUE: 1.57 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=-38.24% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=-10.59% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+3066.7% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=-45.90% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-13.2% | GrowthRev=+1.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)