ALTO Stock Analysis: Alto Ingredients | NASDAQ
Specialty Chemicals | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 443m USD | 12M Return: 370.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 13.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alto Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO) is a U.S.-based producer and marketer of specialty alcohols, renewable fuel ethanol, and essential ingredients derived from corn. The company operates through three business segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production, with production facilities concentrated in Illinois and the western United States.
Its product portfolio spans multiple end markets. Specialty alcohols are sold into health, home, and beauty applications such as mouthwash, cosmetics, hand sanitizers, and cleaners, while grain neutral spirits and corn germ are supplied to food and beverage customers. The company also produces essential ingredients-including dried yeast, distillers grains, corn protein meal, and liquid CO2-for the animal feed and pet food markets, and sells fuel-grade ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers. Ethanol is blended into gasoline as a transportation fuel additive, and the U.S. ethanol sector is largely shaped by federal renewable fuel policies that mandate blending volumes.
Alto Ingredients sells its products through a mix of direct relationships and third-party logistics providers, and offers transportation, storage, and delivery services via external partners. The company was founded in 2003, is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois, and was previously known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc. before rebranding in January 2021. It is classified under the GICS Energy sector within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry.
- Ethanol crush spreads widen on lower corn input costs
- Specialty alcohol margins expand in health and beauty markets
- EPA renewable volume obligations boost ethanol blending demand
| Net Income: 29.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.76% < 20% (prev 10.55%; Δ 2.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 35.7m > Net Income 29.3m |
| Net Debt (89.2m) to EBITDA (64.2m): 1.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (76.6m) vs 12m ago 3.80% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 4.04% > 18% (prev 1.27%; Δ 2.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 232.4% > 50% (prev 236.5%; Δ -4.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.80 > 6 (EBIT TTM 38.9m / Interest Expense TTM 10.2m) |
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 158.6m - Total Current Liabilities 41.7m) / Total Assets 386.3m |
| B: -2.09 (Retained Earnings -808.1m / Total Assets 386.3m) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 38.9m / Avg Total Assets 394.3m) |
| D: 1.83 (Book Value of Equity 249.9m / Total Liabilities 136.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.25 = D |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 59.7m/65.5m, Revenue 916.1m/951.2m) |
| GMI: 0.31 (GM 1.27% / 4.04%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 916.1m / 951.2m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 29.3m - CFO 35.7m) / TA 386.3m) |
| Beneish M = -3.67 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.83 with a total of 2,312,937 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.28%, over one month by +3.55%, over three months by +33.41% and over the past year by +370.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.40 (which is 7.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Alto Ingredients has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALTO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 9 | 54.4% |
P/E Trailing = 15.4595
P/E Forward = 10.6045
P/S = 0.4838
P/B = 1.7753
P/EG = 0.7993
Revenue TTM = 916.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 38.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 64.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 73.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.97m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 109.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 18.2m
Net Debt = 89.2m USD (calculated: Debt 109.5m - CCE 20.3m)
Enterprise Value = 532.4m USD (443.2m + Debt 109.5m - CCE 20.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.80 (Ebit TTM 38.9m / Interest Expense TTM 10.2m)
EV/FCF = 17.34x (Enterprise Value 532.4m / FCF TTM 30.7m)
FCF Yield = 5.77% (FCF TTM 30.7m / Enterprise Value 532.4m)
FCF Margin = 3.35% (FCF TTM 30.7m / Revenue TTM 916.1m)
Net Margin = 3.20% (Net Income TTM 29.3m / Revenue TTM 916.1m)
Gross Margin = 4.04% ((Revenue TTM 916.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 879.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 7.85% (prev -4.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.38 (Enterprise Value 532.4m / Total Assets 386.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.35% (Interest Expense 10.2m / Debt 109.5m)
Taxrate = 4.41% (1.26m / 28.7m)
NOPAT = 37.2m (EBIT 38.9m * (1 - 4.41%))
Current Ratio = 3.81 (Total Current Assets 158.6m / Total Current Liabilities 41.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 109.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 249.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.39 (Net Debt 89.2m / EBITDA 64.2m)
Debt / FCF = 2.90 (Net Debt 89.2m / FCF TTM 30.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 231.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.43% (Net Income 29.3m / Total Assets 386.3m)
RoE = 12.66% (Net Income TTM 29.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 231.3m)
RoCE = 12.78% (EBIT 38.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 231.3m + L.T.Debt 73.1m))
RoIC = 11.29% (NOPAT 37.2m / Invested Capital 329.3m)
WACC = 8.55% (E(443.2m)/V(552.7m) * Re(8.45%) + D(109.5m)/V(552.7m) * Rd(9.35%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 8.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 2.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.75% ; FCFF base≈30.7m ; Y1≈30.8m ; Y5≈32.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.19 (EV 491.7m - Net Debt 89.2m = Equity 402.5m / Shares 77.5m; r=8.55% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.23 | Revenue CAGR: -13.30% | SUE: 0.76 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+3441.7% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+43.5% | GrowthRev=+1.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)