(AMBA) Ambarella - Ratings and Ratios
Ai SoCs, Vision Processors, Compression Chips, Domain Controllers
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 66.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 96.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.38% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.34 |
| Alpha | -24.17 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.03 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.558 |
| Beta | 2.156 |
| Beta Downside | 2.117 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 59.14% |
| Mean DD | 32.71% |
| Median DD | 35.83% |
Description: AMBA Ambarella November 09, 2025
Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) designs and sells low-power system-on-chip (SoC) solutions that combine high-definition video compression, advanced image-signal processing, and on-chip AI inference. Its product portfolio includes central domain controllers, CVflow SoCs, AI neural processors, vision-processor SoCs, HD radars, and serializer/deserializer (SerDes) IP, plus licensed software modules that enable end-to-end video and perception pipelines on a single chip.
The company’s chips are deployed across several high-growth verticals: automotive (dash-cams, electronic mirrors, front-facing ADAS cameras, cabin-monitoring and driver-monitoring systems), autonomous-vehicle domain controllers, IoT security cameras, and a broad set of robotics and industrial imaging applications such as authentication cameras and sensing modules. Ambarella also serves consumer-facing markets-including wearable body cameras, action cameras, drones, video-conferencing units, and VR headsets-by delivering high-quality video at reduced power consumption.
In its most recent quarter (Q2 2024), Ambarella reported revenue of roughly $340 million, up 18 % year-over-year, with a gross margin near 57 % and an operating cash flow of $85 million, reflecting strong demand for AI-enabled edge vision. The firm’s R&D spend remains around 15 % of revenue, underscoring its focus on maintaining a technology lead in a sector where AI-edge compute and automotive ADAS volumes are projected to grow at double-digit CAGR rates. Competitive pressure from larger players such as Nvidia and Texas Instruments, as well as macro-level semiconductor supply-chain dynamics, constitute material risk factors that investors should monitor.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (-79.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 22.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.43pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 63.99% (prev 77.93%; Δ -13.94pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 52.4m > Net Income -79.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 2.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (42.5m) change vs 12m ago 2.57% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 59.78% (prev 60.52%; Δ -0.74pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 52.56% (prev 37.64%; Δ 14.92pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -9.90 (EBITDA TTM -71.6m / Interest Expense TTM 7.39m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.97
| (A) 0.32 = (Total Current Assets 383.7m - Total Current Liabilities 144.5m) / Total Assets 751.9m |
| (B) -0.41 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -311.5m / Total Assets 751.9m |
| (C) -0.10 = EBIT TTM -73.2m / Avg Total Assets 711.3m |
| (D) -1.92 = Book Value of Equity -310.9m / Total Liabilities 161.8m |
| Total Rating: -1.97 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 39.10
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.58% |
| 3. FCF Margin 12.22% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.02 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.24 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -27.63)% |
| 7. RoE -13.85% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 10.92% |
| 9. EPS Trend -35.73% |
What is the price of AMBA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.11%, over one month by -14.34%, over three months by -10.55% and over the past year by +6.90%.
Is AMBA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 98.1 | 32.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 98.1 | 32.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 73.8 | -0.4% |
AMBA Fundamental Data Overview November 30, 2025
P/E Forward = 144.9275
P/S = 8.4704
P/B = 5.3315
P/EG = 4.9654
Beta = 1.964
Revenue TTM = 373.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -73.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -71.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.26m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.73m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -160.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.89b USD (3.17b + Debt 13.6m - CCE 295.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.90 (Ebit TTM -73.2m / Interest Expense TTM 7.39m)
FCF Yield = 1.58% (FCF TTM 45.7m / Enterprise Value 2.89b)
FCF Margin = 12.22% (FCF TTM 45.7m / Revenue TTM 373.9m)
Net Margin = -21.31% (Net Income TTM -79.7m / Revenue TTM 373.9m)
Gross Margin = 59.78% ((Revenue TTM 373.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 150.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.25% (prev 58.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.84 (Enterprise Value 2.89b / Total Assets 751.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.42% (Interest Expense 1.29m / Debt 13.6m)
Taxrate = -6.58% (negative due to tax credits) (933.0k / -14.2m)
NOPAT = -78.0m (EBIT -73.2m * (1 - -6.58%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 2.66 (Total Current Assets 383.7m / Total Current Liabilities 144.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 13.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 590.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.24 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -160.4m / EBITDA -71.6m)
Debt / FCF = -3.51 (Net Debt -160.4m / FCF TTM 45.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 575.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.60% (Net Income -79.7m / Total Assets 751.9m)
RoE = -13.85% (Net Income TTM -79.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 575.2m)
RoCE = -12.61% (EBIT -73.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 575.2m + L.T.Debt 5.26m))
RoIC = -13.68% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -78.0m / Invested Capital 570.2m)
WACC = 13.94% (E(3.17b)/V(3.18b) * Re(13.96%) + D(13.6m)/V(3.18b) * Rd(9.42%) * (1-Tc(-0.07)))
Discount Rate = 13.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 48.88% ; FCFE base≈45.7m ; Y1≈30.0m ; Y5≈13.7m
Fair Price DCF = 3.21 (DCF Value 137.2m / Shares Outstanding 42.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -35.73 | EPS CAGR: -12.73% | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 13
Revenue Correlation: 10.92 | Revenue CAGR: 5.03% | SUE: 1.48 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.036 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=+0.111 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+4.3% | Growth Revenue=+10.1%
Additional Sources for AMBA Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle