AMBA Stock Analysis: Ambarella | NASDAQ

Vision Chips, Neural Processors, Domain Controllers, Radar Modules

Total Rating 38

Safety 94

Buy Signal -0.58

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Industry Rotation: +48.8

Market Cap: 3.03B
Avg Turnover: 102M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility57.9%

VaR 5^th Pctl9.03%

VaR vs Median-4.48%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.02

Rel. Str. IBD24.4

Rel. Str. Peer Group14.2

Character TTM

Beta2.810

Beta Downside2.674

Hurst Exponent0.473

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD51.41%

CAGR/Max DD0.14

CAGR/Mean DD0.37

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: -0.84
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 29.17%
Rev. Trend: 93.4%

Last SUE: 0.17
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Volatile

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -7.5% 30

Feb +4.4% 5

Mar -12.7% 60

Apr -3.3% 22

May +4.9% 46

Jun +2.3% 19

Jul +1.9% 18

Aug +3.7% 24

Sep -0.8% 16

Oct +0.9% 16

Nov +7.5% 2

Dec +2.7% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AMBA Ambarella

Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) is a U.S.-based semiconductor company founded in 2004 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, that designs low-power system-on-a-chip (SoC) solutions for edge and physical artificial intelligence applications. Its products integrate proprietary CVflow technology with video, image, audio, and system control processing on a single chip, and the portfolio also includes central domain controllers, AI neural processors, vision processor SoCs, high-definition radars, and serializer/deserializers, alongside licensed software modules.

The company serves three primary end markets: automotive (video recorders, electronic mirrors, ADAS front cameras, cabin and driver monitoring systems, and central domain controllers for autonomous vehicles), IoT (enterprise and home security cameras), and consumer/enterprise applications such as video conferencing, access control, healthcare, medical imaging, and virtual reality. Ambarella sells through a direct sales force and distributors to original design manufacturers (ODMs), original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and Tier-1 automotive suppliers, with operations spanning the United States, Taiwan, the rest of Asia Pacific, Europe, and the rest of North America.

As a fabless semiconductor designer, Ambarella outsources chip manufacturing to third-party foundries, a common model in the chip industry that allows the company to focus capital on R&D and product design rather than fabrication facilities. The edge AI semiconductor segment, where Ambarella competes, has been a growing area of the broader Information Technology sector as customers increasingly demand on-device processing for latency, privacy, and power-efficiency reasons rather than relying solely on cloud-based inference.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Automotive ADAS design wins accelerate revenue growth
Edge AI camera demand lifts IoT segment revenue
Competition from NVIDIA and Mobileye pressures automotive market share

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0

Net Income: -56.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.30 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 61.19% < 20% (prev 62.61%; Δ -1.42% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 27.3m > Net Income -56.3m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.85 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (44.0m) vs 12m ago 3.83% < -2%
Gross Margin: 58.29% > 18% (prev 58.71%; Δ -0.43% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 56.21% > 50% (prev 49.27%; Δ 6.94% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)

Altman Z'' 4.25

A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 394.0m - Total Current Liabilities 138.4m) / Total Assets 780.2m
B: -0.45 (Retained Earnings -352.7m / Total Assets 780.2m)
C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -55.7m / Avg Total Assets 743.3m)
D: 3.88 (Book Value of Equity 620.3m / Total Liabilities 159.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 4.25 = AA

Beneish M -3.15

DSRI: 0.73 (Receivables 37.4m/42.9m, Revenue 417.8m/348.1m)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 58.71% / 58.29%)
AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.47 / AQ_t-1 0.49)
SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 417.8m / 348.1m)
TATA: -0.11 (NI -56.3m - CFO 27.3m) / TA 780.2m)
Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of AMBA shares?

As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 67.94 with a total of 833,970 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.15%, over one month by +7.03%, over three months by -14.79% and over the past year by -20.34%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 58.50 (which is 13.9% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).

Is AMBA a buy, sell or hold?

Ambarella has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.71. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMBA.

StrongBuy: 4
Buy: 2
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBA price?

Analysts Target Price	89.4	31.5%

Ambarella (AMBA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 3.03b (3.03b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 84.7458
P/S = 7.2529
P/B = 4.8132
P/EG = 4.9654
Revenue TTM = 417.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -55.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -30.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 10.4m USD (estimated: total debt 12.6m - short term 2.23m)
Short Term Debt = 2.23m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 12.6m already included)
Net Debt = -259.7m USD (calculated: Debt 12.6m - CCE 272.3m)
Enterprise Value = 2.77b USD (3.03b + Debt 12.6m - CCE 272.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -55.7m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 305.1x (Enterprise Value 2.77b / FCF TTM 9.08m)
FCF Yield = 0.33% (FCF TTM 9.08m / Enterprise Value 2.77b)
FCF Margin = 2.17% (FCF TTM 9.08m / Revenue TTM 417.8m)
Net Margin = -13.48% (Net Income TTM -56.3m / Revenue TTM 417.8m)
Gross Margin = 58.29% ((Revenue TTM 417.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 174.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.73% (prev 59.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.55 (Enterprise Value 2.77b / Total Assets 780.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 12.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -44.0m (EBIT -55.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.85 (Total Current Assets 394.0m / Total Current Liabilities 138.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 12.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 620.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.46 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -259.7m / EBITDA -30.7m)
Debt / FCF = -28.60 (Net Debt -259.7m / FCF TTM 9.08m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 602.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.58% (Net Income -56.3m / Total Assets 780.2m)
RoE = -9.34% (Net Income TTM -56.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 602.8m)
RoCE = -9.09% (EBIT -55.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 602.8m + L.T.Debt 10.4m))
RoIC = -7.07% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -44.0m / Invested Capital 623.2m)
WACC = 15.80% (E(3.03b)/V(3.04b) * Re(15.87%) + D(12.6m)/V(3.04b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 99.36 | Cagr: 3.45%
[DCF] Terminal Value 50.57% ; FCFF base≈23.7m ; Y1≈20.8m ; Y5≈16.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.67 (EV 122.9m - Net Debt -259.7m = Equity 382.6m / Shares 44.1m; r=15.80% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.84 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.35 | Revenue CAGR: 29.17% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=+6.50% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=+1.80% | Revisions=+21% | GrowthEPS=+29.7% | GrowthRev=+12.9%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=-2.33% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+39.3% | GrowthRev=+13.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=21, down=11)