(AMBA) Ambarella - Overview
Stock: Vision Processor, AI SoC, Automotive Camera, Security Module
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 57.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.02 |
| Alpha | -43.06 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.160 |
| Beta Downside | 2.065 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.81% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.16 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: AMBA Ambarella January 12, 2026
Ambarella (NASDAQ: AMBA) designs low-power system-on-chip (SoC) solutions that combine high-definition video compression, advanced image signal processing, and on-chip AI inference. Its product portfolio includes CVflow vision processors, AI neural processors, HD radar transceivers, and serializer/deserializer IP, which are sold to OEMs and ODMs for automotive ADAS/driver-monitoring cameras, autonomous-vehicle central domain controllers, security-camera IoT devices, and a range of consumer imaging products such as drones, action cams, and VR headsets.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue $1.21 billion, up ~12 % YoY; gross margin 55 %; R&D expense ~15 % of revenue, reflecting continued investment in AI-edge architectures. The automotive ADAS segment now accounts for roughly 45 % of total sales, driven by regulatory mandates for driver-monitoring systems in Europe and China. Industry-wide, AI-at-the-edge and high-resolution video traffic are expanding at a 15 % CAGR, supporting Ambarella’s growth outlook, while supply-chain constraints on advanced packaging remain a material risk.
For a deeper dive into how Ambarella’s valuation compares to peers and to explore scenario-based forecasts, you might find ValueRay’s analytical tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -79.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 63.99% < 20% (prev 77.93%; Δ -13.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 80.1m > Net Income -79.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (42.5m) vs 12m ago 2.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.78% > 18% (prev 0.61%; Δ 5918 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.56% > 50% (prev 37.64%; Δ 14.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -35.42 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -71.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.21m) |
Altman Z'' -2.02
| A: 0.32 (Total Current Assets 383.7m - Total Current Liabilities 144.5m) / Total Assets 751.9m |
| B: -0.41 (Retained Earnings -311.5m / Total Assets 751.9m) |
| C: -0.11 (EBIT TTM -78.4m / Avg Total Assets 711.3m) |
| D: -1.92 (Book Value of Equity -310.9m / Total Liabilities 161.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.02 = D |
Beneish M -3.09
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 42.2m/34.0m, Revenue 373.9m/252.5m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 59.78% / 60.52%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.46 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 1.48 (Revenue 373.9m / 252.5m) |
| TATA: -0.21 (NI -79.7m - CFO 80.1m) / TA 751.9m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AMBA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.37%, over one month by -1.53%, over three months by -24.07% and over the past year by -10.32%.
Is AMBA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 97.5 | 43.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 97.5 | 43.3% |
AMBA Fundamental Data Overview February 23, 2026
P/S = 7.8317
P/B = 4.8295
P/EG = 4.9654
Revenue TTM = 373.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -78.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -71.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 13.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.47m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -160.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.65b USD (2.93b + Debt 13.6m - CCE 295.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -35.42 (Ebit TTM -78.4m / Interest Expense TTM 2.21m)
EV/FCF = 34.88x (Enterprise Value 2.65b / FCF TTM 75.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.87% (FCF TTM 75.9m / Enterprise Value 2.65b)
FCF Margin = 20.29% (FCF TTM 75.9m / Revenue TTM 373.9m)
Net Margin = -21.31% (Net Income TTM -79.7m / Revenue TTM 373.9m)
Gross Margin = 59.78% ((Revenue TTM 373.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 150.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.25% (prev 58.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.52 (Enterprise Value 2.65b / Total Assets 751.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.42% (Interest Expense 1.29m / Debt 13.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -61.9m (EBIT -78.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.66 (Total Current Assets 383.7m / Total Current Liabilities 144.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 13.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 590.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.24 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -160.4m / EBITDA -71.6m)
Debt / FCF = -2.11 (Net Debt -160.4m / FCF TTM 75.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 575.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.20% (Net Income -79.7m / Total Assets 751.9m)
RoE = -13.85% (Net Income TTM -79.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 575.2m)
RoCE = -13.31% (EBIT -78.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 575.2m + L.T.Debt 13.6m))
RoIC = -10.77% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -61.9m / Invested Capital 575.2m)
WACC = 13.84% (E(2.93b)/V(2.94b) * Re(13.87%) + D(13.6m)/V(2.94b) * Rd(9.42%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 48.93% ; FCFF base≈75.9m ; Y1≈49.8m ; Y5≈22.7m
Fair Price DCF = 9.03 (EV 228.4m - Net Debt -160.4m = Equity 388.9m / Shares 43.1m; r=13.84% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -35.73 | EPS CAGR: -12.73% | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 13
Revenue Correlation: 10.92 | Revenue CAGR: 5.03% | SUE: 1.48 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+7 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+3.8% | Growth Revenue=+10.1%