AMBA Stock Analysis: Ambarella | NASDAQ

System-On-Chip, AI Processors, Vision Processors, Domain Controllers

Total Rating 35

Safety 91

Buy Signal -0.45

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Industry Rotation: +20.4

Market Cap: 2.78B
Avg Turnover: 71.8M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility61.1%

VaR 5^th Pctl9.64%

VaR vs Median-3.69%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.06

Rel. Str. IBD12.1

Rel. Str. Peer Group19.9

Character TTM

Beta2.806

Beta Downside2.650

Hurst Exponent0.466

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD51.41%

CAGR/Max DD0.03

CAGR/Mean DD0.09

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: -0.84
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 29.17%
Rev. Trend: 93.4%

Last SUE: 0.17
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Choppy

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -7.5% 30

Feb +4.4% 5

Mar -12.7% 60

Apr -3.3% 22

May +4.9% 46

Jun +2.3% 19

Jul +1.9% 18

Aug +5.5% 35

Sep -0.8% 16

Oct +0.9% 16

Nov +7.5% 2

Dec +2.7% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AMBA Ambarella

Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) is a U.S.-based semiconductor company founded in 2004 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California. It designs low-power system-on-chip (SoC) solutions and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, video processing, and intelligent automation applications.

The companys core technology integrates its CVflow architecture with video, image, and audio processing functions onto a single chip. Its product portfolio includes central domain controllers, AI neural processors, vision processor SoCs, high-definition radars, and serializer/deserializers, along with licensed software modules.

Ambarella serves three primary end markets: automotive (dash cams, ADAS cameras, cabin/driver monitoring, and autonomous driving controllers), IoT (enterprise, public, and home security cameras), and a range of consumer and enterprise applications including video conferencing, access control, healthcare, and virtual reality. The company sells through direct sales and distributors to ODMs, OEMs, and Tier-1 suppliers, with operations across North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe.

As a fabless semiconductor designer in the Information Technology sector, Ambarella operates in a capital-intensive industry where firms typically outsource chip manufacturing to third-party foundries, allowing them to focus resources on R&D and design. The company has been publicly traded since October 2012.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Automotive AI chip design wins accelerate at Tier 1 suppliers
Edge AI competition from Nvidia pressures pricing and margins
China IoT demand softness pressures security camera segment revenue

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0

Net Income: -56.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.92 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 61.19% < 20% (prev 62.61%; Δ -1.42% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 27.3m > Net Income -56.3m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.85 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (44.0m) vs 12m ago 3.83% < -2%
Gross Margin: 58.29% > 18% (prev 58.71%; Δ -0.43% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 56.21% > 50% (prev 49.27%; Δ 6.94% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)

Altman Z'' 4.21

A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 394.0m - Total Current Liabilities 138.4m) / Total Assets 780.2m
B: -0.45 (Retained Earnings -352.7m / Total Assets 780.2m)
C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -59.8m / Avg Total Assets 743.3m)
D: 3.88 (Book Value of Equity 620.3m / Total Liabilities 159.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 4.21 = AA

Beneish M -3.15

DSRI: 0.73 (Receivables 37.4m/42.9m, Revenue 417.8m/348.1m)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 58.71% / 58.29%)
AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.47 / AQ_t-1 0.49)
SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 417.8m / 348.1m)
TATA: -0.11 (NI -56.3m - CFO 27.3m) / TA 780.2m)
Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of AMBA shares?

As of September 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 62.89 with a total of 5,165,997 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.96%, over one month by -23.52%, over three months by -12.71% and over the past year by -22.54%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 58.00 (which is 7.8% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is AMBA a buy, sell or hold?

Ambarella has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.87. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AMBA.

StrongBuy: 5
Buy: 3
Hold: 7
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBA price?

Analysts Target Price	95	51.1%

Ambarella (AMBA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 2.78b (2.78b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 86.2069
P/S = 6.8619
P/B = 4.9124
P/EG = 4.9654
Revenue TTM = 417.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -59.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -34.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 10.4m USD (estimated: total debt 12.6m - short term 2.23m)
Short Term Debt = 2.23m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 13.3m already included)
Net Debt = -259.7m USD (calculated: Debt 12.6m - CCE 272.3m)
Enterprise Value = 2.52b USD (2.78b + Debt 12.6m - CCE 272.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -59.8m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 126.9x (Enterprise Value 2.52b / FCF TTM 19.9m)
FCF Yield = 0.79% (FCF TTM 19.9m / Enterprise Value 2.52b)
FCF Margin = 4.75% (FCF TTM 19.9m / Revenue TTM 417.8m)
Net Margin = -13.48% (Net Income TTM -56.3m / Revenue TTM 417.8m)
Gross Margin = 58.29% ((Revenue TTM 417.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 174.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.73% (prev 59.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.23 (Enterprise Value 2.52b / Total Assets 780.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 12.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -47.3m (EBIT -59.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.85 (Total Current Assets 394.0m / Total Current Liabilities 138.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 12.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 620.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.59 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -259.7m / EBITDA -34.2m)
Debt / FCF = -13.08 (Net Debt -259.7m / FCF TTM 19.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 602.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.58% (Net Income -56.3m / Total Assets 780.2m)
RoE = -9.34% (Net Income TTM -56.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 602.8m)
RoCE = -9.75% (EBIT -59.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 602.8m + L.T.Debt 10.4m))
RoIC = -7.58% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -47.3m / Invested Capital 623.2m)
WACC = 15.78% (E(2.78b)/V(2.79b) * Re(15.85%) + D(12.6m)/V(2.79b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 99.36 | Cagr: 3.45%
[DCF] Terminal Value 50.63% ; FCFF base≈30.2m ; Y1≈26.5m ; Y5≈21.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 9.49 (EV 156.7m - Net Debt -259.7m = Equity 416.4m / Shares 43.9m; r=15.78% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.84 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.35 | Revenue CAGR: 29.17% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+42% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+58% | GrowthEPS=+27.5% | GrowthRev=+13.0%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=+45.2% | GrowthRev=+14.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +57% (up=22, down=5)