AMPL Stock Analysis: Amplitude | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 983m USD | 12M Return: -38.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 17.3M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 4.7 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Amplitude, Inc. provides an AI-powered analytics platform that helps companies analyze customer behavior within digital products. The company serves customers in the United States and internationally and offers a suite of products including Amplitude Analytics for real-time behavioral insights, Session Replay for qualitative user journey analysis, feature and web experimentation tools, Activation for identity and campaign management, Guides and Surveys for in-product engagement, and various AI-driven solutions such as AI Agents, AI Feedback, AI Visibility, and Automated Insights. Amplitude also provides customer support, implementation, and training services. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California, was incorporated in 2011, and was formerly known as Sonalight, Inc. before adopting its current name in December 2014.
Amplitude operates as a software-as-a-service (SaaS) company, delivering its application over the internet on a subscription basis, which is the standard model for application software vendors in the broader enterprise software sector. The company is classified within the Application Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector and went public on NASDAQ in September 2021.
- Subscription revenue growth and net retention rate expansion
- AI Agents adoption accelerates enterprise upsell momentum
- Adobe and Google competition pressures analytics market share
| Net Income: -89.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.95 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 25.07% < 20% (prev 43.97%; Δ -18.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 26.2m > Net Income -89.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.52 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (133.3m) vs 12m ago 2.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 73.57% > 18% (prev 74.48%; Δ -0.91% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 84.19% > 50% (prev 68.78%; Δ 15.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 263.2m - Total Current Liabilities 173.7m) / Total Assets 401.7m |
| B: -1.42 (Retained Earnings -569.7m / Total Assets 401.7m) |
| C: -0.20 (EBIT TTM -86.1m / Avg Total Assets 423.8m) |
| D: 1.18 (Book Value of Equity 217.3m / Total Liabilities 184.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.29 = D |
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 40.9m/41.7m, Revenue 356.8m/306.6m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 74.48% / 73.57%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 356.8m / 306.6m) |
| TATA: -0.29 (NI -89.6m - CFO 26.2m) / TA 401.7m) |
| Beneish M = -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.65 with a total of 1,886,747 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +14.86%, over one month by -12.87%, over three months by +12.17% and over the past year by -38.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.80 (which is 11.1% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Amplitude has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.91. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AMPL.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 10.7 | 39.2% |
P/E Forward = 44.0529
P/S = 2.7546
P/B = 4.5223
Revenue TTM = 356.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -86.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -76.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.60m USD (estimated: total debt 10.1m - short term 3.55m)
Short Term Debt = 3.55m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 10.1m already included)
Net Debt = -171.8m USD (calculated: Debt 10.1m - CCE 181.9m)
Enterprise Value = 810.9m USD (982.7m + Debt 10.1m - CCE 181.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -86.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 103.0x (Enterprise Value 810.9m / FCF TTM 7.87m)
FCF Yield = 0.97% (FCF TTM 7.87m / Enterprise Value 810.9m)
FCF Margin = 2.21% (FCF TTM 7.87m / Revenue TTM 356.8m)
Net Margin = -25.11% (Net Income TTM -89.6m / Revenue TTM 356.8m)
Gross Margin = 73.57% ((Revenue TTM 356.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 94.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.04% (prev 74.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.02 (Enterprise Value 810.9m / Total Assets 401.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 10.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -68.0m (EBIT -86.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.49 (Total Current Assets 263.2m / Total Current Liabilities 176.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 10.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 217.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.26 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -171.8m / EBITDA -76.0m)
Debt / FCF = -21.82 (Net Debt -171.8m / FCF TTM 7.87m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 251.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -21.14% (Net Income -89.6m / Total Assets 401.7m)
RoE = -35.68% (Net Income TTM -89.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 251.1m)
RoCE = -33.40% (EBIT -86.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 251.1m + L.T.Debt 6.60m))
RoIC = -31.81% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -68.0m / Invested Capital 213.8m)
WACC = 11.36% (E(982.7m)/V(992.9m) * Re(11.48%) + D(10.1m)/V(992.9m) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.39 | Cagr: 5.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.87% ; FCFF base≈6.53m ; Y1≈7.48m ; Y5≈11.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.69 (EV 108.0m - Net Debt -171.8m = Equity 279.8m / Shares 103.9m; r=11.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.92 | Revenue CAGR: 11.23% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-69% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=-15.9% | GrowthRev=+16.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-69% | GrowthEPS=+168.2% | GrowthRev=+15.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -73%