(AMSF) AMERISAFE - Overview

Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Specialty | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 624m USD | Total Return: -35.7% in 12m

Stock Workers Compensation, Disability, Medical, Death

Total Rating 33

Risk 42

Buy Signal -0.83

Insurance - Specialty +3.6
Property & Casualty Insurance +1.7

Market Cap: 624m
Avg Trading Vol: 6.96M USD

ATR: 2.70%
Peers RS (IBD): 9.6

Risk 5d forecast

Volatility24.9%

Rel. Tail Risk-10.4%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-1.65

Alpha-38.74

Character TTM

Beta0.024

Beta Downside0.015

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD43.18%

CAGR/Max DD-0.23

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -47.34%
EPS Trend: -65.0%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 2.10%
Rev. Trend: 51.7%

Last SUE: 0.35
Qual. Beats: 0

Description: AMSF AMERISAFE

AmeriSafe, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is a U.S.-based insurance holding company that underwrites workers’ compensation policies for small- and mid-size employers in high-risk sectors such as construction, trucking, logging, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. The firm pays benefits for temporary or permanent disability, death, and related medical expenses, distributing its products through both retail and wholesale brokers and agents.

In its most recent quarter (Q4 2025), AmeriSafe reported net written premiums of $112 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, and achieved a combined ratio of 94.3%, reflecting improved underwriting discipline. The company generated $22 million of operating cash flow and posted earnings per share of $0.38, up from $0.31 a year earlier. Its shares have risen roughly 12% over the past 12 months, trading at a forward P/E of about 8.5×, well below the sector average.

Key drivers for AmeriSafe and the broader workers’ compensation market include a tightening labor market that keeps wage growth and payroll taxes high, continued construction activity spurred by federal infrastructure spending, and evolving state-level regulatory reforms that affect rate approvals and loss reserving. Additionally, rising interest rates are boosting investment income for insurers, partially offsetting underwriting volatility.

For a deeper dive into AmeriSafe’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, consider exploring the analysis on ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Workers compensation premium growth drives revenue
Investment income fluctuations impact profitability
Catastrophic claims increase underwriting losses
Regulatory changes affect policy pricing and reserves
Hazardous industry employment trends influence demand

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 4.5

Net Income: 47.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.15 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -150.6% < 20% (prev 161.6%; Δ -312.2% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 11.1m > Net Income 47.1m
Net Debt (-61.4m) to EBITDA (59.6m): -1.03 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.32 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.0m) vs 12m ago -0.78% < -2%
Gross Margin: 46.44% > 18% (prev 0.43%; Δ 4.60k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 28.97% > 50% (prev 26.70%; Δ 2.27% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBITDA TTM and Interest Expense TTM)

Altman Z'' -2.32

A: -0.46 (Total Current Assets 222.9m - Total Current Liabilities 700.7m) / Total Assets 1.03b
B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 82.8m / Total Assets 1.03b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 58.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.10b)
D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 79.8m / Total Liabilities 878.9m)
Altman-Z'' Score: -2.32 = D

Beneish M -3.14

DSRI: 0.58 (Receivables 160.9m/269.2m, Revenue 317.3m/309.1m)
GMI: 0.94 (GM 46.44% / 43.48%)
AQI: 1.38 (AQ_t 0.78 / AQ_t-1 0.56)
SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 317.3m / 309.1m)
TATA: 0.03 (NI 47.1m - CFO 11.1m) / TA 1.03b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of AMSF shares? As of April 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.33 with a total of 168,942 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.69%, over one month by -1.90%, over three months by -12.24% and over the past year by -35.69%.

Is AMSF a buy, sell or hold? AMERISAFE has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AMSF.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 1
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AMSF price?

Wallstreet Target Price	42.3	27%
Analysts Target Price	42.3	27%

AMSF Fundamental Data Overview as of 02 April 2026

P/E Trailing = 13.3522
P/E Forward = 22.3714
P/S = 1.967
P/B = 2.4121
P/EG = 1.8102
Revenue TTM = 317.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 58.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 59.6m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 491k USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -61.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 475.3m USD (624.1m + Debt 491k - CCE 149.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 58.9m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 53.27x (Enterprise Value 475.3m / FCF TTM 8.92m)
FCF Yield = 1.88% (FCF TTM 8.92m / Enterprise Value 475.3m)
FCF Margin = 2.81% (FCF TTM 8.92m / Revenue TTM 317.3m)
Net Margin = 14.86% (Net Income TTM 47.1m / Revenue TTM 317.3m)
Gross Margin = 46.44% ((Revenue TTM 317.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 169.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.52% (prev 41.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 475.3m / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 71.28% (Interest Expense 350k / Debt 491k)
Taxrate = 17.89% (2.27m / 12.7m)
NOPAT = 48.3m (EBIT 58.9m * (1 - 17.89%))
Current Ratio = 0.32 (Total Current Assets 222.9m / Total Current Liabilities 700.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 491k / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 251.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.03 (Net Debt -61.4m / EBITDA 59.6m)
Debt / FCF = -6.89 (Net Debt -61.4m / FCF TTM 8.92m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 263.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.30% (Net Income 47.1m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = 17.91% (Net Income TTM 47.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 263.2m)
RoCE = 17.73% (EBIT 58.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.03b - Current Liab 700.7m))
RoIC = 18.36% (NOPAT 48.3m / Invested Capital 263.2m)
WACC = 6.07% (E(624.1m)/V(624.6m) * Re(6.07%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 6.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.66%
[DCF] Terminal Value 81.59% ; FCFF base≈14.7m ; Y1≈10.3m ; Y5≈5.42m
[DCF] Fair Price = 12.12 (EV 166.3m - Net Debt -61.4m = Equity 227.7m / Shares 18.8m; r=6.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -34.85% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -65.05 | EPS CAGR: -47.34% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 51.69 | Revenue CAGR: 2.10% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.53 | Chg7d=-0.020 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.17 | Chg7d=-0.100 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-0.7% | Growth Revenue=+5.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.23 | Chg7d=+2.225 | Chg30d=+0.325 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+2.3% | Growth Revenue=+6.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -1.00 (0 Up / 1 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 0.4% (Discount Rate 7.9% - Earnings Yield 7.5%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +2.3% (Analyst 2.7% - Implied 0.4%)

External Resources

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