AMSF Stock Analysis: AMERISAFE | NASDAQ
Insurance - Specialty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 470m USD | 12M Return: -32.1% | US03071H1005 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.4M
EPS Trend: -99.1%
Qual. Beats: -3
Rev. Trend: 67.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AMERISAFE, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is a small-cap insurance holding company that specializes in underwriting workers compensation insurance for small and mid-sized employers across the United States. The company is headquartered in Deridder, Louisiana, and was founded in 1985, with its IPO following in 2005.
The firm operates within the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry, providing coverage for workplace injuries including temporary and permanent disability, death benefits, and medical and hospital expenses. Workers compensation is a state-mandated line of insurance in the U.S., with employers typically required by law to carry coverage for occupational injuries.
AMERISAFEs distribution model relies on retail and wholesale brokers and agents to reach its target market of employers in hazardous industries such as construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. This niche focus on higher-risk sectors distinguishes the company from broader commercial insurers and reflects a specialty underwriting approach within the financial services sector.
- Workers comp underwriting margins pressured by rising claim severity
- Hazardous industry exposure drives premium volume in construction and trucking
- Net investment income growth lifts returns on fixed-income portfolio
| Net Income: 47.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -155.8% < 20% (prev -113.5%; Δ -42.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 20.4m > Net Income 47.0m |
| Net Debt (-64.4m) to EBITDA (30.9m): -2.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.8m) vs 12m ago -1.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.85% > 18% (prev 42.77%; Δ -16.92% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 29.41% > 50% (prev 26.53%; Δ 2.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.46 (Total Current Assets 354.3m - Total Current Liabilities 877.3m) / Total Assets 1.13b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 86.7m / Total Assets 1.13b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 30.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.14b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 250.0m / Total Liabilities 877.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.32 = D |
| DSRI: 0.57 (Receivables 183.1m/292.0m, Revenue 335.6m/306.5m) |
| GMI: 1.65 (GM 42.77% / 25.85%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 335.6m / 306.5m) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 47.0m - CFO 20.4m) / TA 1.13b) |
| Beneish M = -2.66 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.31 with a total of 267,316 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.20%, over one month by +7.96%, over three months by -11.52% and over the past year by -32.10%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.90 (which is 5.4% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
AMERISAFE has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMSF.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 33.3 | 26.7% |
P/E Trailing = 10.2177
P/E Forward = 22.3714
P/S = 1.3994
P/B = 1.807
P/EG = 1.8102
Revenue TTM = 335.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 30.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 30.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.03m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 536k
Net Debt = -64.4m USD (calculated: Debt 1.03m - CCE 65.5m)
Enterprise Value = 405.3m USD (469.7m + Debt 1.03m - CCE 65.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 30.2m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 20.99x (Enterprise Value 405.3m / FCF TTM 19.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.76% (FCF TTM 19.3m / Enterprise Value 405.3m)
FCF Margin = 5.75% (FCF TTM 19.3m / Revenue TTM 335.6m)
Net Margin = 14.00% (Net Income TTM 47.0m / Revenue TTM 335.6m)
Gross Margin = 25.85% ((Revenue TTM 335.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 248.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -36.59% (prev 42.02%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.36 (Enterprise Value 405.3m / Total Assets 1.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.03m)
Taxrate = 19.83% (11.6m / 58.6m)
NOPAT = 24.2m (EBIT 30.2m * (1 - 19.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.40 (Total Current Assets 354.3m / Total Current Liabilities 877.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.03m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 250.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.09 (Net Debt -64.4m / EBITDA 30.9m)
Debt / FCF = -3.34 (Net Debt -64.4m / FCF TTM 19.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 255.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.12% (Net Income 47.0m / Total Assets 1.13b)
RoE = 18.37% (Net Income TTM 47.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 255.7m)
RoCE = 12.07% (EBIT 30.2m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.13b - Current Liab 877.3m))
RoIC = 10.37% (NOPAT 24.2m / Invested Capital 233.2m)
WACC = 5.24% (E(469.7m)/V(470.7m) * Re(5.25%) + D(1.03m)/V(470.7m) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 5.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -89.43 | Cagr: -0.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈14.8m ; Y1≈16.9m ; Y5≈24.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 23.68 (EV 374.5m - Net Debt -64.4m = Equity 439.0m / Shares 18.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -99.12 | EPS CAGR: -13.00% | SUE: -2.26 | # QB: -3
Revenue Correlation: 67.37 | Revenue CAGR: 2.25% | SUE: 2.87 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=-2.75% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=-1.03% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-11.9% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.02 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+4.5% | GrowthRev=+2.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -58% (up=1, down=8)