AMSF Stock Analysis: AMERISAFE | NASDAQ
Insurance - Specialty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 645m USD | 12M Return: -16.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.03M
EPS Trend: -99.2%
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 57.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AMERISAFE, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is a Louisiana-based insurance holding company that specializes in underwriting workers compensation insurance for small and mid-sized employers in hazardous industries such as construction, trucking, logging, agriculture, and maritime. The company distributes its policies through retail and wholesale brokers and agents, providing statutory benefits to injured workers, including coverage for medical expenses, temporary or permanent disability, and death. Founded in 1985 and headquartered in DeRidder, Louisiana, AMERISAFE has been publicly traded since its 2005 IPO and operates within the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry of the Financials sector.
As a specialty workers comp carrier, AMERISAFE operates in a highly regulated line of business that requires state-by-state rate filings and is often structured around assigned-risk pools and guaranteed-cost policies. With a market capitalization of approximately $585 million, the company is classified as a small-cap issuer and concentrates on underwriting risks that many standard-market insurers avoid, using experience-rated pricing and dedicated loss-control services tailored to high-hazard occupations.
- Workers comp combined ratio trends drive underwriting margins
- Elevated interest rates expand net investment income
- Premium growth tied to construction and trucking employment cycles
| Net Income: 46.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -108.2% < 20% (prev -123.4%; Δ 15.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 10.2m > Net Income 46.3m |
| Net Debt (-122.8m) to EBITDA (58.5m): -2.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.9m) vs 12m ago -1.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.60% > 18% (prev 41.89%; Δ 5.72% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.49% > 50% (prev 26.04%; Δ 2.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.31 (Total Current Assets 412.2m - Total Current Liabilities 763.5m) / Total Assets 1.12b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 83.3m / Total Assets 1.12b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 57.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.14b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 246.6m / Total Liabilities 876.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.17 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 288.4m/278.9m, Revenue 324.8m/301.2m) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 41.89% / 47.60%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.63 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 324.8m / 301.2m) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 46.3m - CFO 10.2m) / TA 1.12b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 34.29 with a total of 168,053 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.83%, over one month by +9.20%, over three months by +3.60% and over the past year by -16.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 33.00 (which is 3.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
AMERISAFE has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMSF.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 36.7 | 6.9% |
P/E Trailing = 14.1811
P/E Forward = 22.3714
P/S = 1.9845
P/B = 2.6137
P/EG = 1.8102
Revenue TTM = 324.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 57.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 58.5m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.03m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 536k
Net Debt = -122.8m USD (calculated: Debt 1.03m - CCE 123.8m)
Enterprise Value = 521.8m USD (644.5m + Debt 1.03m - CCE 123.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 57.8m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 65.29x (Enterprise Value 521.8m / FCF TTM 7.99m)
FCF Yield = 1.53% (FCF TTM 7.99m / Enterprise Value 521.8m)
FCF Margin = 2.46% (FCF TTM 7.99m / Revenue TTM 324.8m)
Net Margin = 14.27% (Net Income TTM 46.3m / Revenue TTM 324.8m)
Gross Margin = 47.60% ((Revenue TTM 324.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 170.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.02% (prev 64.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 521.8m / Total Assets 1.12b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.03m)
Taxrate = 19.81% (11.4m / 57.8m)
NOPAT = 46.3m (EBIT 57.8m * (1 - 19.81%))
Current Ratio = 0.54 (Total Current Assets 412.2m / Total Current Liabilities 763.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.03m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 246.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.10 (Net Debt -122.8m / EBITDA 58.5m)
Debt / FCF = -15.36 (Net Debt -122.8m / FCF TTM 7.99m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 259.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.07% (Net Income 46.3m / Total Assets 1.12b)
RoE = 17.85% (Net Income TTM 46.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 259.6m)
RoCE = 16.08% (EBIT 57.8m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.12b - Current Liab 763.5m))
RoIC = 13.50% (NOPAT 46.3m / Invested Capital 343.2m)
WACC = 5.48% (E(644.5m)/V(645.6m) * Re(5.49%) + D(1.03m)/V(645.6m) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 5.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -88.01 | Cagr: -0.83%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈10.7m ; Y1≈9.40m ; Y5≈7.59m
[DCF] Fair Price = 13.08 (EV 121.8m - Net Debt -122.8m = Equity 244.6m / Shares 18.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -99.21 | EPS CAGR: -12.82% | SUE: -0.98 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 57.57 | Revenue CAGR: 1.29% | SUE: 0.44 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=-1.26% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=-2.15% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.08 | Chg30d=-4.22% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-4.9% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.08 | Chg30d=-6.37% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -70% (up=0, down=7)