(AMSF) AMERISAFE - Ratings and Ratios
Workers Compensation Insurance, Commercial Insurance
AMSF EPS (Earnings per Share)
AMSF Revenue
Description: AMSF AMERISAFE
AmeriSafe Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) trades as a common stock and operates within the U.S. Property & Casualty insurance sub‑industry, focusing on specialty commercial lines such as construction, transportation, and environmental liability.
Key performance indicators for AmeriSafe include a combined ratio consistently below 100 %, indicating underwriting profitability, and a net written premium growth rate of roughly 5‑7 % year‑over‑year driven by targeted market expansion and price‑adjustment strategies. The company’s loss ratio hovers around 55 % while expense ratio stays near 30 %, delivering a solid underwriting margin.
Investment income remains a material contributor to earnings, with a portfolio weighted toward high‑grade fixed income securities that benefit from the current low‑interest‑rate environment. However, the firm is exposed to interest‑rate risk; a steep rise could compress investment yields and pressure overall profitability.
Capital adequacy is reflected in a risk‑based capital (RBC) ratio comfortably above regulatory minimums, supported by a strong surplus and reinsurance program that caps large‑loss exposure from catastrophic events. The firm’s loss reserves are well‑funded, and recent actuarial reviews have affirmed reserve adequacy.
Economic drivers influencing AmeriSafe’s outlook include construction activity levels, freight volume trends, and regulatory changes affecting commercial liability coverage. Additionally, the company’s underwriting discipline and ability to price risk accurately in a volatile claims environment are critical levers for sustaining earnings growth.
AMSF Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 897m |
| Sub-Industry | Property & Casualty Insurance |
| IPO / Inception | 2005-11-18 |
AMSF Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -14.7% |
| Fundamental | 55.7% |
| Dividend Rating | 35.6% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -21.8% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.33 of 5 |
AMSF Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 3.34% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.73% |
| Annual Growth 5y | -20.22% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 64.7% |
AMSF Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 58.9% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -72.2% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 25.8% |
| CAGR 5y | 2.41% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y | 0.09 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y | 0.24 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.49 |
| Alpha | 0.29 |
| Beta | 0.068 |
| Volatility | 22.31% |
| Current Volume | 129.8k |
| Average Volume 20d | 72.4k |
| Stop Loss | 42.7 (-3.1%) |
| Signal | 0.30 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income (50.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 18.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.46pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 171.8% (prev -70.53%; Δ 242.4pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO 9.04m <= Net Income 50.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-48.5m) to EBITDA (64.2m) ratio: -0.76 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 220.9 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (19.1m) change vs 12m ago -0.14% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 69.85% (prev 77.41%; Δ -7.56pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 27.06% (prev 27.84%; Δ -0.79pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| error: Interest Coverage Ratio cannot be calculated (needs EBITDA TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
Altman Z'' 3.73
| (A) 0.46 = (Total Current Assets 529.0m - Total Current Liabilities 2.40m) / Total Assets 1.16b |
| (B) 0.08 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 92.1m / Total Assets 1.16b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 63.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.13b |
| (D) 0.10 = Book Value of Equity 84.7m / Total Liabilities 889.5m |
| Total Rating: 3.73 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 55.65
| 1. Piotroski 2.50pt = -2.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.55% = 0.28 |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.58% = 0.65 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 3.35 = -1.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 13.86 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 15.33)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 18.37% = 1.53 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 13.19% = 0.99 |
| 9. EPS Trend -80.41% = -4.02 |
What is the price of AMSF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.48%, over one month by -1.57%, over three months by +1.60% and over the past year by -7.34%.
Is AMERISAFE a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AMSF is around 42.44 USD . This means that AMSF is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -3.7%.
Is AMSF a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMSF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 54.3 | 23.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 54.3 | 23.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 45.1 | 2.2% |
Last update: 2025-09-06 04:31
AMSF Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 355.2m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 17.9882
P/E Forward = 22.3714
P/S = 2.9279
P/B = 3.3788
P/EG = 1.88
Beta = 0.365
Revenue TTM = 306.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 63.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 64.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 887.1m USD (from nonCurrentLiabilitiesTotal, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.40m USD (from totalCurrentLiabilities, last quarter)
Debt = 889.5m USD (Calculated: Short Term 2.40m + Long Term 887.1m)
Net Debt = -48.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.43b USD (897.3m + Debt 889.5m - CCE 355.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 63.2m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
FCF Yield = 0.55% (FCF TTM 7.92m / Enterprise Value 1.43b)
FCF Margin = 2.58% (FCF TTM 7.92m / Revenue TTM 306.4m)
Net Margin = 16.45% (Net Income TTM 50.4m / Revenue TTM 306.4m)
Gross Margin = 69.85% ((Revenue TTM 306.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 92.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 16.89 (Enterprise Value 1.43b / Book Value Of Equity 84.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.04% (Interest Expense 350.0k / Debt 889.5m)
Taxrate = 19.72% (13.6m / 69.1m)
NOPAT = 50.8m (EBIT 63.2m * (1 - 19.72%))
Current Ratio = 220.9 (Total Current Assets 529.0m / Total Current Liabilities 2.40m)
Debt / Equity = 3.35 (Debt 889.5m / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 265.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.86 (Net Debt -48.5m / EBITDA 64.2m)
Debt / FCF = 112.3 (Debt 889.5m / FCF TTM 7.92m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 274.5m (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 4.37% (Net Income 50.4m, Total Assets 1.16b )
RoE = 18.37% (Net Income TTM 50.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 274.5m)
RoCE = 5.44% (Ebit 63.2m / (Equity 274.5m + L.T.Debt 887.1m))
RoIC = 18.49% (NOPAT 50.8m / Invested Capital 274.5m)
WACC = 3.16% (E(897.3m)/V(1.79b) * Re(6.27%)) + (D(889.5m)/V(1.79b) * Rd(0.04%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -60.61 | Cagr: -0.07%
Discount Rate = 6.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + ERP 8.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.27% ; FCFE base≈9.83m ; Y1≈7.35m ; Y5≈4.37m
Fair Price DCF = 4.35 (DCF Value 82.5m / Shares Outstanding 19.0m; 5y FCF grow -29.82% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -80.41 | EPS CAGR: -10.99% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 13.19 | Revenue CAGR: 4.73% | SUE: 1.28 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for AMSF Stock
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