AMSF Stock Analysis: AMERISAFE | NASDAQ
Insurance - Specialty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 487m USD | 12M Return: -38.8% | US03071H1005 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.34M
EPS Trend: -99.1%
Qual. Beats: -3
Rev. Trend: 67.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AMERISAFE, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is a Louisiana-based insurance holding company that specializes in underwriting workers compensation insurance for small and mid-sized employers in hazardous industries such as construction, trucking, logging, agriculture, and maritime. The company distributes its policies through retail and wholesale brokers and agents, providing statutory benefits to injured workers, including coverage for medical expenses, temporary or permanent disability, and death. Founded in 1985 and headquartered in DeRidder, Louisiana, AMERISAFE has been publicly traded since its 2005 IPO and operates within the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry of the Financials sector.
As a specialty workers comp carrier, AMERISAFE operates in a highly regulated line of business that requires state-by-state rate filings and is often structured around assigned-risk pools and guaranteed-cost policies. With a market capitalization of approximately $585 million, the company is classified as a small-cap issuer and concentrates on underwriting risks that many standard-market insurers avoid, using experience-rated pricing and dedicated loss-control services tailored to high-hazard occupations.
- Workers comp combined ratio trends drive underwriting margins
- Elevated interest rates expand net investment income
- Premium growth tied to construction and trucking employment cycles
| Net Income: 47.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -155.8% < 20% (prev -113.5%; Δ -42.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 20.4m > Net Income 47.0m |
| Net Debt (-64.4m) to EBITDA (58.9m): -1.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.8m) vs 12m ago -1.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.85% > 18% (prev 42.77%; Δ -16.92% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 29.41% > 50% (prev 26.53%; Δ 2.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.46 (Total Current Assets 354.3m - Total Current Liabilities 877.3m) / Total Assets 1.13b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 86.7m / Total Assets 1.13b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 58.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.14b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 250.0m / Total Liabilities 877.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.15 = D |
| DSRI: 0.57 (Receivables 183.1m/292.0m, Revenue 335.6m/306.5m) |
| GMI: 1.65 (GM 42.77% / 25.85%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 335.6m / 306.5m) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 47.0m - CFO 20.4m) / TA 1.13b) |
| Beneish M = -2.66 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.31 with a total of 311,699 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.65%, over one month by -12.82%, over three months by -11.60% and over the past year by -38.77%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.10 (which is 4.6% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
AMERISAFE has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMSF.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 35.7 | 35.6% |
P/E Trailing = 10.5422
P/E Forward = 22.3714
P/S = 1.4496
P/B = 1.9382
P/EG = 1.8102
Revenue TTM = 335.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 58.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 58.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.03m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 536k
Net Debt = -64.4m USD (calculated: Debt 1.03m - CCE 65.5m)
Enterprise Value = 422.1m USD (486.6m + Debt 1.03m - CCE 65.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 58.6m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 21.86x (Enterprise Value 422.1m / FCF TTM 19.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.57% (FCF TTM 19.3m / Enterprise Value 422.1m)
FCF Margin = 5.75% (FCF TTM 19.3m / Revenue TTM 335.6m)
Net Margin = 14.00% (Net Income TTM 47.0m / Revenue TTM 335.6m)
Gross Margin = 25.85% ((Revenue TTM 335.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 248.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -36.59% (prev 42.02%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.37 (Enterprise Value 422.1m / Total Assets 1.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.03m)
Taxrate = 19.83% (11.6m / 58.6m)
NOPAT = 47.0m (EBIT 58.6m * (1 - 19.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.40 (Total Current Assets 354.3m / Total Current Liabilities 877.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.03m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 250.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.09 (Net Debt -64.4m / EBITDA 58.9m)
Debt / FCF = -3.34 (Net Debt -64.4m / FCF TTM 19.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 255.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.12% (Net Income 47.0m / Total Assets 1.13b)
RoE = 18.37% (Net Income TTM 47.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 255.7m)
RoCE = 23.44% (EBIT 58.6m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.13b - Current Liab 877.3m))
RoIC = 20.15% (NOPAT 47.0m / Invested Capital 233.2m)
WACC = 5.59% (E(486.6m)/V(487.6m) * Re(5.60%) + D(1.03m)/V(487.6m) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 5.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -89.43 | Cagr: -0.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈14.8m ; Y1≈16.9m ; Y5≈24.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 23.68 (EV 374.5m - Net Debt -64.4m = Equity 439.0m / Shares 18.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -99.12 | EPS CAGR: -13.00% | SUE: -2.26 | # QB: -3
Revenue Correlation: 67.37 | Revenue CAGR: 2.25% | SUE: 2.87 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-8.74% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.95 | Chg30d=-6.40% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-11.0% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.02 | Chg30d=-3.20% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+3.4% | GrowthRev=+2.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -58% (up=1, down=8)