(AMTX) Aemetis - Ratings and Ratios
Ethanol, Biodiesel, Renewable Natural Gas, Glycerin, Wet Distillers Grain
AMTX EPS (Earnings per Share)
AMTX Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 88.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 134% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.21 |
| Alpha Jensen | -62.03 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.450 |
| Beta | 1.690 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 85.63% |
| Mean DD | 55.73% |
Description: AMTX Aemetis October 29, 2025
Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) is a vertically integrated renewable fuels company headquartered in Cupertino, California. It focuses on low- and negative-carbon intensity products that substitute for conventional fossil fuels.
The firm operates through three primary segments: (1) **California Ethanol**, producing fuel-grade ethanol and co-products such as wet distillers grains, corn oil, and condensed solubles for animal feed; (2) **California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)**, where it captures methane from dairy operations and upgrades it to pipeline-ready RNG; and (3) **India Biodiesel**, which manufactures distilled biodiesel and refined glycerin for the Indian market.
Beyond fuels, Aemetis also manufactures USP-grade alcohol and hand sanitizer, leveraging its existing fermentation infrastructure. The company’s business model integrates acquisition, development, and commercialization of renewable-energy technologies, aiming to meet both domestic low-carbon fuel mandates and international biodiesel demand.
**Key metrics and sector drivers (as of Q3 2024):** - RNG production capacity reached ~150 MMcf / year, positioning Aemetis among the top U.S. RNG suppliers. - The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits generated by its RNG and ethanol operations averaged $120 / tonne CO₂e in the last 12 months, a primary revenue catalyst. - India’s biodiesel mandate, targeting 20 % blending by 2025, underpins a projected CAGR of ~12 % for the domestic biodiesel market, directly benefiting Aemetis’s India segment.
Investors should note that Aemetis’s cash flow remains highly sensitive to policy incentives (LCFS, Renewable Fuel Standard) and commodity price volatility; any adverse regulatory changes could materially affect earnings.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AMTX’s valuation and risk profile, consider exploring the company’s detailed analytics on ValueRay.
AMTX Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 137m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| IPO / Inception | 2014-05-15 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -61.5% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
AMTX Dividends
Currently no dividends paidAMTX Growth Ratios
| CAGR | -29.61% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.35 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.53 |
| Current Volume | 627.3k |
| Average Volume | 1196.4k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income (-87.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 12.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -7.17pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -162.8% (prev -33.40%; Δ -129.4pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO -15.1m > Net Income -87.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 0.05 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (63.7m) change vs 12m ago 34.91% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin -5.23% (prev 0.80%; Δ -6.03pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 82.42% (prev 117.8%; Δ -35.36pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -1.16 (EBITDA TTM -47.9m / Interest Expense TTM 48.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -20.28
| (A) -1.36 = (Total Current Assets 15.6m - Total Current Liabilities 343.4m) / Total Assets 241.1m |
| (B) -2.63 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -634.6m / Total Assets 241.1m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -2.63 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.23 = EBIT TTM -56.1m / Avg Total Assets 244.3m |
| (D) -1.18 = Book Value of Equity -641.7m / Total Liabilities 546.0m |
| Total Rating: -20.28 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 24.18
| 1. Piotroski 1.0pt = -4.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield -7.50% = -3.75 |
| 3. FCF Margin -15.55% = -5.83 |
| 4. Debt/Equity -0.94 = -2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -5.87 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -103.7)% = -12.50 |
| 7. RoE 30.87% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 32.68% = 2.45 |
| 9. EPS Trend 6.27% = 0.31 |
What is the price of AMTX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.00%, over one month by -29.45%, over three months by -25.63% and over the past year by -55.41%.
Is Aemetis a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AMTX is around 1.52 USD . This means that AMTX is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -26.21%.
Is AMTX a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMTX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13.8 | 567.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13.8 | 567.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.7 | -18.4% |
AMTX Fundamental Data Overview November 13, 2025
P/S = 0.6785
Beta = 2.269
Revenue TTM = 201.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -56.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -47.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 66.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 286.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 286.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 281.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 417.7m USD (136.6m + Debt 286.7m - CCE 5.58m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.16 (Ebit TTM -56.1m / Interest Expense TTM 48.3m)
FCF Yield = -7.50% (FCF TTM -31.3m / Enterprise Value 417.7m)
FCF Margin = -15.55% (FCF TTM -31.3m / Revenue TTM 201.3m)
Net Margin = -43.65% (Net Income TTM -87.9m / Revenue TTM 201.3m)
Gross Margin = -5.23% ((Revenue TTM 201.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 211.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -0.10% (prev -6.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.73 (Enterprise Value 417.7m / Total Assets 241.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.23% (Interest Expense 15.0m / Debt 286.7m)
Taxrate = -0.03% (negative due to tax credits) (6000 / -23.7m)
NOPAT = -56.1m (EBIT -56.1m * (1 - -0.03%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.05 (Total Current Assets 15.6m / Total Current Liabilities 343.4m)
Debt / Equity = -0.94 (negative equity) (Debt 286.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -304.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.87 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 281.1m / EBITDA -47.9m)
Debt / FCF = -8.98 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 281.1m / FCF TTM -31.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -284.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -36.44% (Net Income -87.9m / Total Assets 241.1m)
RoE = 30.87% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -87.9m / Total Stockholder Equity -284.7m)
RoCE = 25.75% (negative capital employed) (EBIT -56.1m / Capital Employed (Equity -284.7m + L.T.Debt 66.8m))
RoIC = -96.21% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -56.1m / Invested Capital 58.3m)
WACC = 7.49% (E(136.6m)/V(423.3m) * Re(12.24%) + D(286.7m)/V(423.3m) * Rd(5.23%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 12.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 26.71%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -31.3m)
EPS Correlation: 6.27 | EPS CAGR: 41.58% | SUE: -0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 32.68 | Revenue CAGR: -4.27% | SUE: -2.14 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for AMTX Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle