APP Stock Analysis: Applovin | NASDAQ

Advertising Agencies | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 167.553m USD | 12M Return: 54.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Axon Ads, MAX, Adjust, Wurl
Total Rating 68
Safety 89
Buy Signal -0.42
Advertising Agencies
Industry Rotation: -1.7
Market Cap: 168B
Avg Turnover: 2.68B
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility80.5%
VaR 5th Pctl12.8%
VaR vs Median-3.14%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.94
Rel. Str. IBD55.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group71.2
Character TTM
Beta3.730
Beta Downside3.215
Hurst Exponent0.501
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD57.00%
CAGR/Max DD3.08
CAGR/Mean DD11.10
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of APP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.04, "2021-09": 0.4, "2021-12": 0.08, "2022-03": -0.31, "2022-06": 0.53, "2022-09": 0.62, "2022-12": -0.22, "2023-03": -0.01, "2023-06": 0.22, "2023-09": 0.3, "2023-12": 0.49, "2024-03": 0.67, "2024-06": 0.89, "2024-09": 1.25, "2024-12": 1.73, "2025-03": 2.38, "2025-06": 2.36, "2025-09": 2.45, "2025-12": 3.24, "2026-03": 3.56,
EPS CAGR: 256.30%
EPS Trend: 95.6%
Last SUE: 0.74
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of APP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 668.806, 2021-09: 726.951, 2021-12: 793.47, 2022-03: 625.421, 2022-06: 776.231, 2022-09: 713.099, 2022-12: 702.307, 2023-03: 715.405, 2023-06: 750.165, 2023-09: 864.256, 2023-12: 953.261, 2024-03: 1058.115, 2024-06: 711.015, 2024-09: 835.186, 2024-12: 1372.779, 2025-03: 1158.974, 2025-06: 1258.754, 2025-09: 1405.045, 2025-12: 1657.944, 2026-03: 1842.449,
Rev. CAGR: 29.75%
Rev. Trend: 97.7%
Last SUE: 0.14
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Choppy
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 5.2 years of data

Jan -2.1% 12
Feb +6.1% 0
Mar +0.7% 0
Apr -2.7% 0
May +34.1% 51
Jun -3.6% 40
Jul +2.4% 0
Aug +12.7% 16
Sep +7.2% 0
Oct -9.4% 16
Nov -4.0% 15
Dec -8.2% 15

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: APP Applovin

AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) is a U.S.-headquartered technology company that provides end-to-end, AI-powered advertising and monetization solutions for the digital advertising sector. Founded in 2011 and based in Palo Alto, California, it operates through two segments: Advertising and Apps, with its stock listed on NASDAQ since its 2021 IPO.

The companys product suite includes Axon Ads Manager for campaign automation, MAX (an in-app bidding platform that runs real-time auctions to optimize publisher ad inventory), Adjust for mobile measurement and analytics, and Wurl, a connected TV (CTV) platform for streaming video distribution and advertising. It serves a broad customer base ranging from individual developers and small studios to large enterprises, advertisers, and mobile app publishers across the U.S. and international markets.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • AXON AI platform drives advertising segment revenue growth
  • Apps segment wind-down reorients toward higher-margin ad tech
  • Aggressive share buybacks boost earnings per share
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.0
Net Income: 3.96b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.57 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 12.78 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 54.40% < 20% (prev 23.49%; Δ 30.90% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.57 > 3% & CFO 4.43b > Net Income 3.96b
Net Debt (787.1m) to EBITDA (4.94b): 0.16 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.24 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (338.7m) vs 12m ago -1.78% < -2%
Gross Margin: 88.37% > 18% (prev 82.47%; Δ 5.90% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 91.90% > 50% (prev 71.46%; Δ 20.45% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.79b / Interest Expense TTM 205.3m)
Altman Z'' 8.94
A: 0.44 (Total Current Assets 4.85b - Total Current Liabilities 1.49b) / Total Assets 7.71b
B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 1.93b / Total Assets 7.71b)
C: 0.71 (EBIT TTM 4.79b / Avg Total Assets 6.71b)
D: 0.44 (Book Value of Equity 2.36b / Total Liabilities 5.34b)
Altman-Z'' = 8.94 = AAA
Beneish M -3.09
DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 1.96b/1.58b, Revenue 6.16b/4.08b)
GMI: 0.93 (GM 82.47% / 88.37%)
AQI: 0.64 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.56)
SGI: 1.51 (Revenue 6.16b / 4.08b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 3.96b - CFO 4.43b) / TA 7.71b)
Beneish M = -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of APP shares?

As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 527.06 with a total of 6,002,600 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +18.19%, over one month by -7.67%, over three months by +27.72% and over the past year by +54.27%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 478.80 (which is 9.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is APP a buy, sell or hold?

Applovin has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.27. Therefore, it is recommended to buy APP.

  • StrongBuy: 16
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the APP price?
Analysts Target Price 650.3 23.4%
Applovin (APP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 01 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 168b (168b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 43.2951
P/E Forward = 31.6456
P/S = 27.1817
P/B = 70.8925
P/EG = 1.3712
Revenue TTM = 6.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.79b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.51b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 31.8m
Net Debt = 787.1m USD (calculated: Debt 3.55b - CCE 2.76b)
Enterprise Value = 168b USD (168b + Debt 3.55b - CCE 2.76b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.36 (Ebit TTM 4.79b / Interest Expense TTM 205.3m)
EV/FCF = 38.24x (Enterprise Value 168b / FCF TTM 4.40b)
FCF Yield = 2.62% (FCF TTM 4.40b / Enterprise Value 168b)
FCF Margin = 71.42% (FCF TTM 4.40b / Revenue TTM 6.16b)
Net Margin = 64.29% (Net Income TTM 3.96b / Revenue TTM 6.16b)
Gross Margin = 88.37% ((Revenue TTM 6.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 717.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.95% (prev 88.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 21.84 (Enterprise Value 168b / Total Assets 7.71b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.79% (Interest Expense 205.3m / Debt 3.55b)
Taxrate = 14.69% (674.4m / 4.59b)
NOPAT = 4.09b (EBIT 4.79b * (1 - 14.69%))
Current Ratio = 3.24 (Total Current Assets 4.85b / Total Current Liabilities 1.49b)
Debt / Equity = 1.50 (Debt 3.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.16 (Net Debt 787.1m / EBITDA 4.94b)
Debt / FCF = 0.18 (Net Debt 787.1m / FCF TTM 4.40b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.78b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 59.09% (Net Income 3.96b / Total Assets 7.71b)
RoE = 222.0% (Net Income TTM 3.96b / Total Stockholder Equity 1.78b)
RoCE = 90.49% (EBIT 4.79b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.78b + L.T.Debt 3.51b))
RoIC = 69.11% (NOPAT 4.09b / Invested Capital 5.92b)
WACC = 18.81% (E(168b)/V(171b) * Re(19.10%) + D(3.55b)/V(171b) * Rd(5.79%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 19.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -82.22 | Cagr: -1.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 51.23% ; FCFF base≈3.65b ; Y1≈4.19b ; Y5≈6.16b
[DCF] Fair Price = 101.9 (EV 31.9b - Net Debt 787.1m = Equity 31.2b / Shares 305.7m; r=18.81% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.61 | EPS CAGR: 256.3% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.73 | Revenue CAGR: 29.75% | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.09 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+14% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.09 | Chg30d=+0.03% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+65.0% | GrowthRev=+49.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=21.12 | Chg30d=+0.65% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+31.3% | GrowthRev=+30.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +57%