ARCC Stock Analysis: Ares Capital | NASDAQ

Senior Loans, Mezzanine Debt, Equity Stakes, Growth Capital

Total Rating 29

Safety 33

Buy Signal -0.80

Asset Management
Industry Rotation: -1.6

Market Cap: 13.3B
Avg Turnover: 83.0M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility14.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl2.72%

VaR vs Median11.7%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.15

Rel. Str. IBD39.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group56.8 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.644

Beta Downside0.684

Hurst Exponent0.399

Choppyness50.5%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD19.35%

CAGR/Max DD0.45

CAGR/Mean DD1.54

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -9.58%
EPS Trend: -96.4%

Last SUE: -1.32
Qual. Beats: -1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -0.54%
Rev. Trend: -10.3%

Last SUE: -0.05
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +0.7% 19

Feb -1.1% 21

Mar -0.1% 19

Apr +0.6% 5

May -0.5% 5

Jun -0.1% 5

Jul +1.4% 23

Aug +0.1% 5

Sep -0.4% 18

Oct -0.9% 26

Nov +1.1% 37

Dec +0.2% 16

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ARCC Ares Capital

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a publicly traded business development company (BDC) that primarily provides debt and equity financing to U.S. middle-market companies. BDCs are a type of regulated investment company established under the Investment Company Act of 1940, designed to lend to or invest in small and mid-sized private businesses, and are generally required to distribute most of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends.

The company participates across a wide range of transaction types, including growth capital, acquisitions, recapitalizations, mezzanine debt, leveraged buyouts, rescue financing, and refinancings. Its preferred investment instruments include first and second lien loans, unitranche structures, mezzanine debt, subordinated debt, and preferred or common equity, with occasional purchases of stressed or discounted debt positions.

ARCC focuses on U.S. companies across diverse sectors, including business services, software and technology, healthcare, consumer and retail, industrials, infrastructure and power, financial services, energy, and media. It typically targets companies with $10M–$250M in EBITDA and invests between $30M and $500M per transaction, with individual debt commitments generally in the $10M–$100M range. The firm operates through offices in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, allowing regional coverage across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Midwest, Southwest, and Western United States.

ARCC generally prefers a leading role in its transactions, often acting as agent, and frequently seeks board representation in portfolio companies.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Net interest income expands on rising base rates
Credit quality deteriorates as non-accruals increase across portfolio
Private credit competition pressures middle-market loan spreads and yields

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5

Net Income: 875.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.49 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 6.20% < 20% (prev 68.40%; Δ -62.20% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.75b > Net Income 875.0m
Net Debt (14.4b) to EBITDA (1.61b): 8.93 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.14 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (720.0m) vs 12m ago 1.55% < -2%
Gross Margin: 68.68% > 18% (prev 68.27%; Δ 0.41% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 7.88% > 50% (prev 7.29%; Δ 0.59% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.58b / Interest Expense TTM 829.0m)

Altman Z'' 1.31

A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 1.23b - Total Current Liabilities 1.08b) / Total Assets 30.6b
B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 504.0m / Total Assets 30.6b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 1.58b / Avg Total Assets 30.7b)
D: 0.84 (Book Value of Equity 13.9b / Total Liabilities 16.6b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.31 = BB

What is the price of ARCC shares?

As of October 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.53 with a total of 5,985,162 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.71%, over one month by -3.14%, over three months by -0.26% and over the past year by -0.44%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.00 (which is 2.9% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).

Is ARCC a buy, sell or hold?

Ares Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCC.

StrongBuy: 7
Buy: 4
Hold: 3
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARCC price?

Analysts Target Price	20.8	12.1%

Ares Capital (ARCC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 29 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 13.3b (13.3b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.8134
P/E Forward = 9.7466
P/S = 4.279
P/B = 0.9619
P/EG = 3.7176
Revenue TTM = 2.42b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.58b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.61b USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 15.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14.4b USD (calculated: Debt 15.1b - CCE 722.0m)
Enterprise Value = 27.7b USD (13.3b + Debt 15.1b - CCE 722.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.90 (Ebit TTM 1.58b / Interest Expense TTM 829.0m)
EV/FCF = 15.82x (Enterprise Value 27.7b / FCF TTM 1.75b)
FCF Yield = 6.32% (FCF TTM 1.75b / Enterprise Value 27.7b)
FCF Margin = 72.31% (FCF TTM 1.75b / Revenue TTM 2.42b)
Net Margin = 36.16% (Net Income TTM 875.0m / Revenue TTM 2.42b)
Gross Margin = 68.68% ((Revenue TTM 2.42b - Cost of Revenue TTM 758.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.97% (prev 77.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 27.7b / Total Assets 30.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.48% (Interest Expense 829.0m / Debt 15.1b)
Taxrate = 8.66% (83.0m / 958.0m)
NOPAT = 1.44b (EBIT 1.58b * (1 - 8.66%))
Current Ratio = 1.14 (Total Current Assets 1.23b / Total Current Liabilities 1.08b)
Debt / Equity = 1.08 (Debt 15.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 13.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.93 (Net Debt 14.4b / EBITDA 1.61b)
Debt / FCF = 8.23 (Net Debt 14.4b / FCF TTM 1.75b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.85% (Net Income 875.0m / Total Assets 30.6b)
RoE = 6.23% (Net Income TTM 875.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 14.1b)
RoCE = 5.35% (EBIT 1.58b / Capital Employed (Total Assets 30.6b - Current Liab 1.08b))
RoIC = 4.91% (NOPAT 1.44b / Invested Capital 29.4b)
WACC = 6.32% (E(13.3b)/V(28.4b) * Re(7.81%) + D(15.1b)/V(28.4b) * Rd(5.48%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 7.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.25 | Cagr: 7.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.57b ; Y1≈1.80b ; Y5≈2.65b
[DCF] Fair Price = 35.51 (EV 39.9b - Net Debt 14.4b = Equity 25.5b / Shares 718.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -96.44 | EPS CAGR: -9.58% | SUE: -1.32 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -10.34 | Revenue CAGR: -0.54% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=+0.19% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.91 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-5.1% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.94 | Chg30d=+0.21% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+1.5% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=6, down=1)