(ARDX) Ardelyx - Overview
Stock: Ibs-Constipation, Dialysis-Phosphatemia
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 80.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.65 |
| Alpha | 19.80 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.672 |
| Beta Downside | 0.749 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.32% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.48 |
Description: ARDX Ardelyx January 16, 2026
Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARDX) is a U.S.-based biotechnology firm focused on developing and commercializing therapies for unmet medical needs, primarily in gastro-intestinal and renal disease areas.
Its commercial portfolio includes IBSRELA, a minimally absorbed small-molecule treatment for irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, and XPHOZAH, a phosphate absorption inhibitor designed to lower serum phosphorus in chronic kidney disease patients on dialysis.
Key recent metrics: as of Q3 2024 the company reported cash and equivalents of $215 million, giving it ~18 months of runway at current burn rates; XPHOZAH generated $45 million in net revenue in FY 2023, reflecting a 38 % year-over-year increase driven by expanding dialysis market adoption; and the global CKD dialysis market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~6 % through 2030, underpinning long-term demand for phosphate binders.
Ardelyx’s valuation is also influenced by broader biotech sector dynamics, where elevated R&D spending and favorable reimbursement trends for specialty renal therapies have lifted peer multiples by roughly 12 % year-to-date.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of ARDX’s risk-adjusted upside, you may find ValueRay’s analytical platform worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -56.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 71.46% < 20% (prev 84.81%; Δ -13.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.11 > 3% & CFO -53.6m > Net Income -56.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 4.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (241.9m) vs 12m ago 2.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.88% > 18% (prev 0.85%; Δ 8803 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 93.26% > 50% (prev 68.46%; Δ 24.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.27 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -28.4m / Interest Expense TTM 24.5m) |
Altman Z'' -5.99
| A: 0.59 (Total Current Assets 368.0m - Total Current Liabilities 83.4m) / Total Assets 486.2m |
| B: -1.95 (Retained Earnings -946.5m / Total Assets 486.2m) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -31.1m / Avg Total Assets 427.0m) |
| D: -2.85 (Book Value of Equity -946.4m / Total Liabilities 331.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -5.99 = D |
Beneish M -2.69
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 76.6m/53.2m, Revenue 398.2m/251.8m) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 88.88% / 84.76%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.58 (Revenue 398.2m / 251.8m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI -56.5m - CFO -53.6m) / TA 486.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.69 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ARDX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.81%, over one month by +31.65%, over three months by +29.56% and over the past year by +29.10%.
Is ARDX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARDX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.5 | 98.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.5 | 98.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.3 | 13.5% |
ARDX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 4.6919
P/B = 12.1267
P/EG = -0.08
Revenue TTM = 398.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -31.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -28.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 202.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.44m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 207.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 164.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.83b USD (1.87b + Debt 207.6m - CCE 242.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.27 (Ebit TTM -31.1m / Interest Expense TTM 24.5m)
EV/FCF = -33.12x (Enterprise Value 1.83b / FCF TTM -55.3m)
FCF Yield = -3.02% (FCF TTM -55.3m / Enterprise Value 1.83b)
FCF Margin = -13.90% (FCF TTM -55.3m / Revenue TTM 398.2m)
Net Margin = -14.20% (Net Income TTM -56.5m / Revenue TTM 398.2m)
Gross Margin = 88.88% ((Revenue TTM 398.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 44.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 87.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.77 (Enterprise Value 1.83b / Total Assets 486.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.79% (Interest Expense 5.80m / Debt 207.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -24.5m (EBIT -31.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.41 (Total Current Assets 368.0m / Total Current Liabilities 83.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.35 (Debt 207.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 154.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.80 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 164.9m / EBITDA -28.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.98 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 164.9m / FCF TTM -55.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 153.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.24% (Net Income -56.5m / Total Assets 486.2m)
RoE = -36.91% (Net Income TTM -56.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 153.2m)
RoCE = -8.74% (EBIT -31.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 153.2m + L.T.Debt 202.1m))
RoIC = -7.44% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -24.5m / Invested Capital 329.6m)
WACC = 7.77% (E(1.87b)/V(2.08b) * Re(8.39%) + D(207.6m)/V(2.08b) * Rd(2.79%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 5.02%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -55.3m)
EPS Correlation: 44.23 | EPS CAGR: 141.4% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.24 | Revenue CAGR: 247.9% | SUE: 0.81 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.00 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+179.6% | Growth Revenue=+34.2%