ARDX Stock Analysis: Ardelyx | NASDAQ

Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 986m USD | 12M Return: -42.5% | US0396971071 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Gastrointestinal Drug, Renal Therapy, Phosphate Inhibitor, Small Molecule
Total Rating 21
Safety 32
Buy Signal -0.65
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +11.3
Market Cap: 986M
Avg Turnover: 17.4M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility70.5%
VaR 5th Pctl10.1%
VaR vs Median-9.64%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Rel. Str. IBD1.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group0.3
Character TTM
Beta0.213
Beta Downside0.462
Hurst Exponent0.421
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD66.32%
CAGR/Max DD-0.11
CAGR/Mean DD-0.20
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ARDX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": -0.42, "2021-12": -0.31, "2022-03": -0.21, "2022-06": -0.19, "2022-09": -0.14, "2022-12": 0.06, "2023-03": -0.13, "2023-06": -0.08, "2023-09": 0.03, "2023-12": -0.12, "2024-03": -0.11, "2024-06": -0.07, "2024-09": -0.0034, "2024-12": 0.02, "2025-03": -0.17, "2025-06": -0.08, "2025-09": -0.004, "2025-12": -0.0017, "2026-03": -0.15, "2026-06": -0.07,
Last SUE: -0.37
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ARDX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 1.173, 2021-12: 1.029, 2022-03: 0.468, 2022-06: 2.526, 2022-09: 4.986, 2022-12: 44.178, 2023-03: 11.369, 2023-06: 22.333, 2023-09: 56.391, 2023-12: 34.363, 2024-03: 46.023, 2024-06: 73.222, 2024-09: 98.241, 2024-12: 116.129, 2025-03: 74.114, 2025-06: 97.662, 2025-09: 110.329, 2025-12: 125.215, 2026-03: 94.473, 2026-06: 120.877,
Rev. CAGR: 64.48%
Rev. Trend: 94.5%
Last SUE: -0.10
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +4.6% 8
Feb -1.1% 28
Mar -6.6% 21
Apr +5.1% 16
May -13.8% 34
Jun -0.9% 8
Jul +0.7% 19
Aug +2.2% 14
Sep +3.8% 11
Oct -2.6% 25
Nov +10.4% 24
Dec -0.5% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ARDX Ardelyx

Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARDX) is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts, that discovers, develops, and commercializes therapies for unmet medical needs. The company was incorporated in 2007 (originally as Nteryx, Inc.) and went public in June 2014.

The company markets two FDA-approved products: IBSRELA, a minimally absorbed small molecule for irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C), and XPHOZAH, a phosphate absorption inhibitor approved to reduce serum phosphorus in adults with chronic kidney disease on dialysis. Both products are sold primarily in the United States, with some international activity.

As a small-cap biotechnology company (market capitalization of approximately $1.4 billion), Ardelyx operates in a sector characterized by high research and development costs, reliance on intellectual property and patent protection, and revenue concentration tied to a limited number of commercial products. Its business model combines ongoing drug development with in-house commercialization of its approved therapies, which is relatively uncommon for small-cap biotech firms that more typically partner with larger pharmaceutical companies for sales and distribution.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • XPHOZAH launch accelerates in dialysis phosphate market
  • IBSRELA revenue grows as IBS-C demand expands
  • Cash burn tightens amid rising commercial spending
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: -55.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.09 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 68.69% < 20% (prev 69.88%; Δ -1.20% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -17.3m > Net Income -55.7m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 3.34 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (248.1m) vs 12m ago 3.39% < -2%
Gross Margin: 93.96% > 18% (prev 84.48%; Δ 9.48% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 86.49% > 50% (prev 82.73%; Δ 3.76% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.02 > 6 (EBIT TTM -28.0m / Interest Expense TTM 27.4m)
Altman Z'' -2.13
A: 0.54 (Total Current Assets 441.9m - Total Current Liabilities 132.2m) / Total Assets 575.9m
B: -1.74 (Retained Earnings -1.00b / Total Assets 575.9m)
C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -28.0m / Avg Total Assets 521.3m)
D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 149.0m / Total Liabilities 426.9m)
Altman-Z'' = -2.13 = D
Beneish M -2.70
DSRI: 1.37 (Receivables 100.4m/62.6m, Revenue 450.9m/386.1m)
GMI: 0.90 (GM 84.48% / 93.96%)
AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.23)
SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 450.9m / 386.1m)
TATA: -0.07 (NI -55.7m - CFO -17.3m) / TA 575.9m)
Beneish M = -2.70 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of ARDX shares?

As of September 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.78 with a total of 2,976,561 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.79%, over one month by -24.55%, over three months by -30.00% and over the past year by -42.47%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.50 (which is 7.4% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is ARDX a buy, sell or hold?

Ardelyx has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.64. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARDX.

  • StrongBuy: 8
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARDX price?
Analysts Target Price 12.9 241.3%
Ardelyx (ARDX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 986.3m (986.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 40.6504
P/S = 2.1874
P/B = 6.6361
P/EG = -0.08
Revenue TTM = 450.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -28.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -23.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 251.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 260.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.37m
Net Debt = -21.3m USD (calculated: Debt 260.6m - CCE 281.8m)
Enterprise Value = 965.0m USD (986.3m + Debt 260.6m - CCE 281.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.02 (Ebit TTM -28.0m / Interest Expense TTM 27.4m)
EV/FCF = 566.0x (Enterprise Value 965.0m / FCF TTM 1.71m)
FCF Yield = 0.18% (FCF TTM 1.71m / Enterprise Value 965.0m)
FCF Margin = 0.38% (FCF TTM 1.71m / Revenue TTM 450.9m)
Net Margin = -12.35% (Net Income TTM -55.7m / Revenue TTM 450.9m)
Gross Margin = 93.96% ((Revenue TTM 450.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 94.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.68 (Enterprise Value 965.0m / Total Assets 575.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.53% (Interest Expense 27.4m / Debt 260.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -22.2m (EBIT -28.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.59 (Total Current Assets 441.9m / Total Current Liabilities 170.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.75 (Debt 260.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 149.0m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 0.89 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -21.3m / EBITDA -23.8m)
 Debt / FCF = -12.48 (Net Debt -21.3m / FCF TTM 1.71m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 154.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.68% (Net Income -55.7m / Total Assets 575.9m)
RoE = -36.00% (Net Income TTM -55.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 154.7m)
RoCE = -6.90% (EBIT -28.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 154.7m + L.T.Debt 251.8m))
 RoIC = -5.24% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -22.2m / Invested Capital 422.7m)
 WACC = 7.06% (E(986.3m)/V(1.25b) * Re(6.73%) + D(260.6m)/V(1.25b) * Rd(10.53%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.69 | Cagr: 2.81%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.71m ; Y1≈1.71m ; Y5≈1.81m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.19 (EV 28.2m - Net Debt -21.3m = Equity 49.5m / Shares 258.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.46 | Revenue CAGR: 64.48% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=-144.71% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.20 | Chg30d=-307.51% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+22.7% | GrowthRev=+20.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=-51.08% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+225.4% | GrowthRev=+27.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)