(ARLP) Alliance Resource Partners - Ratings and Ratios
Coal, Royalties, Terminal, Technology, Export
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 10.63% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 82.02% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 62.66% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 122.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 24.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 39.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.81% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.04 |
| Alpha | -8.55 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.84 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.508 |
| Beta | 0.342 |
| Beta Downside | 0.378 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.83% |
| Mean DD | 7.26% |
| Median DD | 6.65% |
Description: ARLP Alliance Resource Partners November 09, 2025
Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) is a diversified natural-resource firm that primarily produces and markets bituminous coal to U.S. electric utilities and steel manufacturers. Its operations are organized into four segments: Illinois Basin Coal, Appalachia Coal, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties.
The company runs seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, and it operates a coal-loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana. In addition to mining, ARLP generates ancillary revenue by leasing oil-and-gas mineral interests, leasing coal reserves to its own mines, and offering mining-technology solutions such as proximity-detection, collision-avoidance, and data-analytics platforms.
Key recent metrics: ARLP produced roughly 15 million short tons of coal in 2023, a 4 % decline from 2022, while adjusted EBITDA fell to about $150 million due to lower thermal-coal prices and higher operating costs. The firm’s cash-flow generation remains sensitive to U.S. power-plant fuel-mix decisions and to steel-industry demand, both of which are being reshaped by the ongoing transition to lower-carbon energy sources and by recent EPA regulations on coal-combustion emissions.
Given the volatility in coal pricing, the company’s exposure to regulatory risk, and the modest upside from its royalty and technology businesses, a granular scenario analysis is essential before forming an investment view. For a deeper dive into ARLP’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (318.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 135.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.08pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 10.25% (prev 14.55%; Δ -4.30pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 (>3.0%) and CFO 675.7m > Net Income 318.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-56.1m) to EBITDA (686.3m) ratio: -0.08 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.90 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (128.4m) change vs 12m ago 0.29% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 18.99% (prev 23.22%; Δ -4.23pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 75.73% (prev 81.92%; Δ -6.19pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4697 (EBITDA TTM 686.3m / Interest Expense TTM 45.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 67.19
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 12.14% |
| 3. FCF Margin 16.18% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.02 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.08 |
| 7. RoE 15.85% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 9.24% |
| 9. EPS Trend -17.34% |
What is the price of ARLP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.21%, over one month by +0.41%, over three months by +11.14% and over the past year by +4.26%.
Is ARLP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARLP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 31 | 26.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 31 | 26.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 31.9 | 30.4% |
ARLP Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 12.582
P/E Forward = 9.4073
P/S = 1.3577
P/B = 1.7269
P/EG = -1.04
Beta = 0.27
Revenue TTM = 2.25b USD
EBIT TTM = 215.22b USD
EBITDA TTM = 686.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 433.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 23.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 38.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -56.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.00b USD (3.05b + Debt 38.4m - CCE 94.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4697 (Ebit TTM 215.22b / Interest Expense TTM 45.8m)
FCF Yield = 12.14% (FCF TTM 364.0m / Enterprise Value 3.00b)
FCF Margin = 16.18% (FCF TTM 364.0m / Revenue TTM 2.25b)
Net Margin = 14.17% (Net Income TTM 318.7m / Revenue TTM 2.25b)
Gross Margin = 18.99% ((Revenue TTM 2.25b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.82b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.11% (prev 22.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 3.00b / Total Assets 2.91b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 28.71% (Interest Expense 11.0m / Debt 38.4m)
Taxrate = 5.73% (5.89m / 102.7m)
NOPAT = 202.89b (EBIT 215.22b * (1 - 5.73%))
Current Ratio = 1.90 (Total Current Assets 486.1m / Total Current Liabilities 255.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 38.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.08 (Net Debt -56.1m / EBITDA 686.3m)
Debt / FCF = -0.15 (Net Debt -56.1m / FCF TTM 364.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.96% (Net Income 318.7m / Total Assets 2.91b)
RoE = 15.85% (Net Income TTM 318.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.01b)
RoCE = 8805 % (out of range, set to none) (EBIT 215.22b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.01b + L.T.Debt 433.1m))
RoIC = 8910 % (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT 202.89b / Invested Capital 2.28b)
WACC = 7.52% (E(3.05b)/V(3.09b) * Re(7.27%) + D(38.4m)/V(3.09b) * Rd(28.71%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 7.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.51%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.33% ; FCFE base≈332.9m ; Y1≈333.8m ; Y5≈356.0m
Fair Price DCF = 49.01 (DCF Value 6.29b / Shares Outstanding 128.4m; 5y FCF grow -0.27% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -17.34 | EPS CAGR: 16.53% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 9.24 | Revenue CAGR: 5.14% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.69 | Chg30d=+0.070 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=+0.157 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+18.3% | Growth Revenue=+3.3%
Additional Sources for ARLP Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle