ARLP Stock Analysis: Alliance Resource | NASDAQ

Bituminous Coal, Mineral Royalties, Safety Systems, Coal Exports

Total Rating 38

Safety 12

Buy Signal 0.27

Thermal Coal
Industry Rotation: -40.3

Market Cap: 3.31B
Avg Turnover: 7.14M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility21.2%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.71%

VaR vs Median6.04%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.70

Rel. Str. IBD67.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group85 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.020

Beta Downside0.202

Hurst Exponent0.537

Choppyness70.3%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD20.43%

CAGR/Max DD0.78

CAGR/Mean DD2.16

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -28.77%
EPS Trend: -87.5%

Last SUE: 0.15
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -7.47%
Rev. Trend: -98.7%

Last SUE: -0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +3.2% 19

Feb -9.5% 46

Mar -0.3% 5

Apr -0.9% 5

May -0.2% 7

Jun -2.5% 20

Jul +6.2% 62

Aug -0.1% 5

Sep +3.3% 44

Oct -1.3% 16

Nov -2.1% 14

Dec -3.3% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ARLP Alliance Resource

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a U.S.-based diversified natural resource company primarily engaged in the production and marketing of coal to utilities and industrial customers. It operates through four segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties, producing bituminous coal from seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. In addition to coal mining, the company owns and leases oil and gas mineral interests, leases coal mineral reserves to its mining complexes, and operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana. ARLP also offers mining technology products and services, such as data networks, communication and tracking systems, proximity detection systems, collision avoidance systems, and data and analytics software, and exports its products internationally. Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the partnership has been publicly traded since its 1999 IPO.

As a master limited partnership (MLP) in the GICS Coal & Consumable Fuels sub-industry, ARLP primarily serves electric power generation and steel production customers, sectors whose long-term demand is shaped by energy transition policies, natural gas pricing, and global steel output trends. The companys diversification into oil and gas royalties and mining technology services provides incremental revenue streams beyond core coal production, which is increasingly important as U.S. thermal coal demand faces structural pressure from the shift toward renewable and natural gas-fired generation.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Illinois Basin thermal coal sales anchor utility revenue
Metallurgical coal pricing tied to steel production demand
Oil and gas royalty income diversifies cash flow

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.5

Net Income: 266.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.83 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 10.04% < 20% (prev 9.87%; Δ 0.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 612.3m > Net Income 266.4m
Net Debt (491.0m) to EBITDA (90.5b): 0.01 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.75 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (128.7m) vs 12m ago 0.24% < -2%
Gross Margin: 24.41% > 18% (prev 18.49%; Δ 5.92% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 74.84% > 50% (prev 79.86%; Δ -5.03% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.95k > 6 (EBIT TTM 90.2b / Interest Expense TTM 46.3m)

Beneish M -3.81

DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 205.2m/182.3m, Revenue 2.17b/2.29b)
GMI: 0.76 (GM 18.49% / 24.41%)
AQI: -0.13 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 -0.74)
SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 2.17b / 2.29b)
TATA: -0.12 (NI 266.4m - CFO 612.3m) / TA 2.94b)
Beneish M = -3.81 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA

What is the price of ARLP shares?

As of October 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.73 with a total of 286,791 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.46%, over one month by -0.27%, over three months by +6.87% and over the past year by +18.15%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.10 (which is 2.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is ARLP a buy, sell or hold?

Alliance Resource has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARLP.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 0
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARLP price?

Analysts Target Price	31.2	21.1%

Alliance Resource (ARLP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 3.31b (3.31b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.561
P/E Forward = 8.9767
P/S = 1.5236
P/B = 1.8582
P/EG = 0.5461
Revenue TTM = 2.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 90.2b USD
EBITDA TTM = 90.5b USD
Long Term Debt = 498.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 81.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 602.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 11.3m
Net Debt = 491.0m USD (calculated: Debt 602.1m - CCE 111.2m)
Enterprise Value = 3.80b USD (3.31b + Debt 602.1m - CCE 111.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.95k (Ebit TTM 90.2b / Interest Expense TTM 46.3m)
EV/FCF = 10.86x (Enterprise Value 3.80b / FCF TTM 350.3m)
FCF Yield = 9.21% (FCF TTM 350.3m / Enterprise Value 3.80b)
FCF Margin = 16.11% (FCF TTM 350.3m / Revenue TTM 2.17b)
Net Margin = 12.25% (Net Income TTM 266.4m / Revenue TTM 2.17b)
Gross Margin = 24.41% ((Revenue TTM 2.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.75% (prev 16.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 3.80b / Total Assets 2.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.70% (Interest Expense 46.3m / Debt 602.1m)
Taxrate = 6.24% (18.2m / 291.1m)
NOPAT = 84.6b (EBIT 90.2b * (1 - 6.24%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 508.6m / Total Current Liabilities 290.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 602.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.01 (Net Debt 491.0m / EBITDA 90.5b)
Debt / FCF = 1.40 (Net Debt 491.0m / FCF TTM 350.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.87b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.17% (Net Income 266.4m / Total Assets 2.94b)
RoE = 14.28% (Net Income TTM 266.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.87b)
RoCE = 3.81k% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT 90.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.87b + L.T.Debt 498.5m))
RoIC = 3.22k% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT 84.6b / Invested Capital 2.62b)
WACC = 5.95% (E(3.31b)/V(3.92b) * Re(5.72%) + D(602.1m)/V(3.92b) * Rd(7.70%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 5.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.91 | Cagr: 0.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.69% ; FCFF base≈337.3m ; Y1≈367.3m ; Y5≈457.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 50.58 (EV 7.00b - Net Debt 491.0m = Equity 6.51b / Shares 128.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -87.48 | EPS CAGR: -28.77% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -98.74 | Revenue CAGR: -7.47% | SUE: -0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=+5.15% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.46 | Chg30d=+3.94% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-7.6% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+18.3% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=5, down=2)