ARLP Stock Analysis: Alliance Resource | NASDAQ

Thermal Coal | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.142m USD | 12M Return: -2.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Coal, Oil Royalties, Coal Royalties, Mining Equipment
Total Rating 42
Safety 35
Buy Signal 0.03
Thermal Coal
Industry Rotation: +19.1
Market Cap: 3.14B
Avg Turnover: 5.53M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility22.1%
VaR 5th Pctl3.93%
VaR vs Median7.66%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Rel. Str. IBD40
Rel. Str. Peer Group88.5
Character TTM
Beta0.256
Beta Downside0.449
Hurst Exponent0.515
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD20.83%
CAGR/Max DD1.08
CAGR/Mean DD3.26
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ARLP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.34, "2021-09": 0.44, "2021-12": 0.4, "2022-03": 0.28, "2022-06": 1.23, "2022-09": 1.25, "2022-12": 1.63, "2023-03": 1.45, "2023-06": 1.3, "2023-09": 1.18, "2023-12": 0.88, "2024-03": 1.35, "2024-06": 0.77, "2024-09": 0.67, "2024-12": 0.24, "2025-03": 0.62, "2025-06": 0.55, "2025-09": 0.71, "2025-12": 0.78, "2026-03": 0.38,
EPS CAGR: -32.15%
EPS Trend: -92.3%
Last SUE: 0.38
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ARLP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 362.443, 2021-09: 415.439, 2021-12: 473.472, 2022-03: 463.422, 2022-06: 619.878, 2022-09: 632.461, 2022-12: 700.727, 2023-03: 662.922, 2023-06: 641.836, 2023-09: 636.521, 2023-12: 625.422, 2024-03: 651.697, 2024-06: 593.35, 2024-09: 613.569, 2024-12: 590.092, 2025-03: 540.468, 2025-06: 547.460532, 2025-09: 571.367, 2025-12: 535.513, 2026-03: 516.017,
Rev. CAGR: -7.41%
Rev. Trend: -98.6%
Last SUE: -0.07
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +2.5% 15
Feb -9.5% 38
Mar -0.8% 11
Apr -2.4% 12
May -0.8% 13
Jun -2.1% 27
Jul +6.0% 53
Aug -0.3% 18
Sep +3.6% 38
Oct -1.3% 22
Nov -1.3% 9
Dec -1.3% 21

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ARLP Alliance Resource

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) is a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based diversified natural resource company that produces and markets coal to utilities and industrial customers in the United States. Founded in 1971 and listed on NASDAQ since 1999, the partnership operates as a mid-cap energy issuer (GICS Sub Industry: Coal & Consumable Fuels) through four reporting segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties.

The companys core business centers on producing bituminous coal from seven underground mining complexes located in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, with primary end-markets being electric power generation and steel production. Bituminous coal is widely used in these markets because of its relatively high energy content and, in certain grades, its suitability as a coking coal input for steelmaking. In addition to its mining operations, ARLP owns and leases oil and gas mineral interests, leases coal reserves to its own complexes, operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana, exports coal internationally, and sells mining technology products such as proximity detection, collision avoidance, and data analytics systems.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Illinois Basin coal exports drive higher realizations
  • Metallurgical coal pricing rises on steel mill demand
  • Natural gas competition pressures domestic utility coal volumes
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.5
Net Income: 320.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.11 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 5.92% < 20% (prev 9.82%; Δ -3.91% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 611.0m > Net Income 320.2m
Net Debt (448.6m) to EBITDA (216b): 0.00 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.46 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (128.5m) vs 12m ago 0.21% < -2%
Gross Margin: 24.53% > 18% (prev 18.82%; Δ 5.71% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 75.38% > 50% (prev 80.53%; Δ -5.15% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.18k > 6 (EBIT TTM 215b / Interest Expense TTM 51.5m)
Beneish M -4.00
DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 167.7m/187.6m, Revenue 2.17b/2.34b)
GMI: 0.77 (GM 18.82% / 24.53%)
AQI: -0.14 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 -0.73)
SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 2.17b / 2.34b)
TATA: -0.10 (NI 320.2m - CFO 611.0m) / TA 2.86b)
Beneish M = -4.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of ARLP shares?

As of July 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.77 with a total of 162,481 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.73%, over one month by +0.90%, over three months by +0.54% and over the past year by -2.64%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.00 (which is 3.1% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).

Is ARLP a buy, sell or hold?

Alliance Resource has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARLP.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARLP price?
Analysts Target Price 31 25.2%
Alliance Resource (ARLP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 21 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.14b (3.14b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.8526
P/E Forward = 10.1112
P/S = 1.4476
P/B = 1.7842
P/EG = 0.5461
Revenue TTM = 2.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 215b USD
EBITDA TTM = 216b USD
Long Term Debt = 426.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 69.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 519.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 11.9m
Net Debt = 448.6m USD (calculated: Debt 519.7m - CCE 71.1m)
Enterprise Value = 3.59b USD (3.14b + Debt 519.7m - CCE 71.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.18k (Ebit TTM 215b / Interest Expense TTM 51.5m)
EV/FCF = 10.60x (Enterprise Value 3.59b / FCF TTM 338.8m)
FCF Yield = 9.44% (FCF TTM 338.8m / Enterprise Value 3.59b)
FCF Margin = 15.61% (FCF TTM 338.8m / Revenue TTM 2.17b)
Net Margin = 14.75% (Net Income TTM 320.2m / Revenue TTM 2.17b)
Gross Margin = 24.53% ((Revenue TTM 2.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.18% (prev 22.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 3.59b / Total Assets 2.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.90% (Interest Expense 51.5m / Debt 519.7m)
Taxrate = 6.14% (21.4m / 349.4m)
NOPAT = 202b (EBIT 215b * (1 - 6.14%))
Current Ratio = 1.46 (Total Current Assets 408.7m / Total Current Liabilities 280.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 519.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.00 (Net Debt 448.6m / EBITDA 216b)
Debt / FCF = 1.32 (Net Debt 448.6m / FCF TTM 338.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.94b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.12% (Net Income 320.2m / Total Assets 2.86b)
RoE = 16.54% (Net Income TTM 320.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.94b)
 RoCE = 9.11k% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT 215b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.94b + L.T.Debt 426.1m))
 RoIC = 7.85k% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT 202b / Invested Capital 2.57b)
 WACC = 7.22% (E(3.14b)/V(3.66b) * Re(6.88%) + D(519.7m)/V(3.66b) * Rd(9.90%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 6.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.02 | Cagr: 0.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.10% ; FCFF base≈342.2m ; Y1≈336.5m ; Y5≈341.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 38.01 (EV 5.34b - Net Debt 448.6m = Equity 4.89b / Shares 128.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -2.51% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -92.33 | EPS CAGR: -32.15% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -98.61 | Revenue CAGR: -7.41% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+4.28% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=-0.44% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=+0.28% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-10.8% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.87 | Chg30d=+0.12% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+20.8% | GrowthRev=+3.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)