ARLP Stock Analysis: Alliance Resource | NASDAQ

Thermal Coal | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.303m USD | 12M Return: 25.1% | US01877R1086 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Coal, Oil Royalties, Coal Royalties, Mining Equipment
Total Rating 48
Safety 34
Buy Signal 0.59
Thermal Coal
Industry Rotation: +28.8
Market Cap: 3.30B
Avg Turnover: 9.54M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility22.2%
VaR 5th Pctl3.92%
VaR vs Median7.37%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.92
Rel. Str. IBD53
Rel. Str. Peer Group45.8
Character TTM
Beta0.027
Beta Downside0.190
Hurst Exponent0.530
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD20.82%
CAGR/Max DD1.04
CAGR/Mean DD3.03
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ARLP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.34, "2021-09": 0.44, "2021-12": 0.4, "2022-03": 0.28, "2022-06": 1.23, "2022-09": 1.25, "2022-12": 1.63, "2023-03": 1.45, "2023-06": 1.3, "2023-09": 1.18, "2023-12": 0.88, "2024-03": 1.35, "2024-06": 0.77, "2024-09": 0.67, "2024-12": 0.24, "2025-03": 0.62, "2025-06": 0.55, "2025-09": 0.71, "2025-12": 0.78, "2026-03": 0.38, "2026-06": 0.65,
EPS CAGR: -28.77%
EPS Trend: -87.5%
Last SUE: 0.15
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ARLP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 362.443, 2021-09: 415.439, 2021-12: 473.472, 2022-03: 463.422, 2022-06: 619.878, 2022-09: 632.461, 2022-12: 700.727, 2023-03: 662.922, 2023-06: 641.836, 2023-09: 636.521, 2023-12: 625.422, 2024-03: 651.697, 2024-06: 593.35, 2024-09: 613.569, 2024-12: 590.092, 2025-03: 540.468, 2025-06: 547.460532, 2025-09: 571.367, 2025-12: 535.513, 2026-03: 516.017, 2026-06: 551.56,
Rev. CAGR: -7.47%
Rev. Trend: -98.7%
Last SUE: -0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader
Confidence

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +3.2% 19
Feb -9.5% 46
Mar -0.3% 5
Apr -0.9% 5
May -0.2% 7
Jun -2.5% 20
Jul +6.2% 62
Aug -0.2% 13
Sep +3.3% 44
Oct -1.3% 16
Nov -2.1% 14
Dec -3.3% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ARLP Alliance Resource

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) is a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based diversified natural resource company that produces and markets coal to utilities and industrial customers in the United States. Founded in 1971 and listed on NASDAQ since 1999, the partnership operates as a mid-cap energy issuer (GICS Sub Industry: Coal & Consumable Fuels) through four reporting segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties.

The companys core business centers on producing bituminous coal from seven underground mining complexes located in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, with primary end-markets being electric power generation and steel production. Bituminous coal is widely used in these markets because of its relatively high energy content and, in certain grades, its suitability as a coking coal input for steelmaking. In addition to its mining operations, ARLP owns and leases oil and gas mineral interests, leases coal reserves to its own complexes, operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana, exports coal internationally, and sells mining technology products such as proximity detection, collision avoidance, and data analytics systems.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Illinois Basin coal exports drive higher realizations
  • Metallurgical coal pricing rises on steel mill demand
  • Natural gas competition pressures domestic utility coal volumes
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.5
Net Income: 266.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.83 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 10.04% < 20% (prev 9.87%; Δ 0.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 612.3m > Net Income 266.4m
Net Debt (491.0m) to EBITDA (90.5b): 0.01 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.75 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (128.7m) vs 12m ago 0.24% < -2%
Gross Margin: 24.41% > 18% (prev 18.49%; Δ 5.92% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 74.84% > 50% (prev 79.86%; Δ -5.03% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.95k > 6 (EBIT TTM 90.2b / Interest Expense TTM 46.3m)
Beneish M -3.81
DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 205.2m/182.3m, Revenue 2.17b/2.29b)
GMI: 0.76 (GM 18.49% / 24.41%)
AQI: -0.13 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 -0.74)
SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 2.17b / 2.29b)
TATA: -0.12 (NI 266.4m - CFO 612.3m) / TA 2.94b)
Beneish M = -3.81 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of ARLP shares?

As of August 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.30 with a total of 176,038 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.46%, over one month by +9.24%, over three months by +8.49% and over the past year by +25.10%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.40 (which is 3.4% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is ARLP a buy, sell or hold?

Alliance Resource has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARLP.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARLP price?
Analysts Target Price 31.2 18.5%
Alliance Resource (ARLP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 20 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.30b (3.30b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.6453
P/E Forward = 10.2459
P/S = 1.5188
P/B = 1.8859
P/EG = 0.5461
Revenue TTM = 2.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 90.2b USD
EBITDA TTM = 90.5b USD
Long Term Debt = 498.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 81.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 602.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 11.3m
Net Debt = 491.0m USD (calculated: Debt 602.1m - CCE 111.2m)
Enterprise Value = 3.79b USD (3.30b + Debt 602.1m - CCE 111.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.95k (Ebit TTM 90.2b / Interest Expense TTM 46.3m)
EV/FCF = 10.83x (Enterprise Value 3.79b / FCF TTM 350.3m)
FCF Yield = 9.23% (FCF TTM 350.3m / Enterprise Value 3.79b)
FCF Margin = 16.11% (FCF TTM 350.3m / Revenue TTM 2.17b)
Net Margin = 12.25% (Net Income TTM 266.4m / Revenue TTM 2.17b)
Gross Margin = 24.41% ((Revenue TTM 2.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.75% (prev 16.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 3.79b / Total Assets 2.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.70% (Interest Expense 46.3m / Debt 602.1m)
Taxrate = 6.24% (18.2m / 291.1m)
NOPAT = 84.6b (EBIT 90.2b * (1 - 6.24%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 508.6m / Total Current Liabilities 290.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 602.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.01 (Net Debt 491.0m / EBITDA 90.5b)
Debt / FCF = 1.40 (Net Debt 491.0m / FCF TTM 350.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.87b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.17% (Net Income 266.4m / Total Assets 2.94b)
RoE = 14.28% (Net Income TTM 266.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.87b)
 RoCE = 3.81k% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT 90.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.87b + L.T.Debt 498.5m))
 RoIC = 3.22k% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT 84.6b / Invested Capital 2.62b)
 WACC = 6.26% (E(3.30b)/V(3.90b) * Re(6.08%) + D(602.1m)/V(3.90b) * Rd(7.70%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 6.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.91 | Cagr: 0.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.69% ; FCFF base≈337.3m ; Y1≈367.3m ; Y5≈457.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 50.58 (EV 7.00b - Net Debt 491.0m = Equity 6.51b / Shares 128.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -87.48 | EPS CAGR: -28.77% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -98.74 | Revenue CAGR: -7.47% | SUE: -0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=+5.15% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.46 | Chg30d=+3.94% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-7.6% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=+1.63% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+18.3% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=5, down=2)